-
HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!
Daily National Hunt Racing Tips
- Thread starter Kevloaf
- Start date
opatcho
Member
- Joined
- Jan 29, 2018
- Messages
- 3,976
- Reaction score
- 955
- Points
- 83
Charlie Hall has cut up
With the ground being so fast, and being on a sharpest course, looking for something that will enjoy a sharp / quick ground / pace.
Djelo has struggled on quicker ground and when the pace was hot during early - mid part of race, looks a horse that really perform over winter ground and I think the trainer is using this as a prep for the King George - in hope of slower ground when that comes around
Hewick I did fancy and back for this but the more I look at race conditions the more I’m worried he’ll be flat out and it will all happen too quickly for him, despite the weight allowance
The Real Whacker, think he should be shorted the Djelo for this as this is his main target, but still think the next horse may impact TRW’s ability to control the race up in front
Pic D’Orhy I’ve ignored all well for this and I hope I haven’t over analysed this race to a point where I’ve ended up backing something I originally didn’t fancy, but race conditions appear to be in his favour. Yup, he’s an ascot specialist! But I can just see Harry going out in front and nothing will be able to jump and travel as quick, hopefully causing a few to make early mistakes. Typical Harry C ride, give the horse a brief breather and then jump the last few ahead of the rest and win
Backed Pic D on hills with boost, he was too big, close to 6/1 with that added.
You want Pic D jump like a donkey outside of ascot :-( lol
With the ground being so fast, and being on a sharpest course, looking for something that will enjoy a sharp / quick ground / pace.
Djelo has struggled on quicker ground and when the pace was hot during early - mid part of race, looks a horse that really perform over winter ground and I think the trainer is using this as a prep for the King George - in hope of slower ground when that comes around
Hewick I did fancy and back for this but the more I look at race conditions the more I’m worried he’ll be flat out and it will all happen too quickly for him, despite the weight allowance
The Real Whacker, think he should be shorted the Djelo for this as this is his main target, but still think the next horse may impact TRW’s ability to control the race up in front
Pic D’Orhy I’ve ignored all well for this and I hope I haven’t over analysed this race to a point where I’ve ended up backing something I originally didn’t fancy, but race conditions appear to be in his favour. Yup, he’s an ascot specialist! But I can just see Harry going out in front and nothing will be able to jump and travel as quick, hopefully causing a few to make early mistakes. Typical Harry C ride, give the horse a brief breather and then jump the last few ahead of the rest and win
Backed Pic D on hills with boost, he was too big, close to 6/1 with that added.
You want Pic D jump like a donkey outside of ascot :-( lol
opatcho
Member
- Joined
- Jan 29, 2018
- Messages
- 3,976
- Reaction score
- 955
- Points
- 83
Nearly, bumped into Djelo and I could see that half way through the way
Djelo a decent horse, despite his jumping, think he'll improve a bit more on slower ground
Djelo a decent horse, despite his jumping, think he'll improve a bit more on slower ground
Lobos
Fat Jockey Patron - DGC Winner 2021
- Joined
- Mar 9, 2019
- Messages
- 29,290
- Reaction score
- 6,546
- Points
- 83
opatcho
Member
- Joined
- Jan 29, 2018
- Messages
- 3,976
- Reaction score
- 955
- Points
- 83
Paddy Power Gold Cup
Really struggling this year, normally have a strong view
You have horses like Bad that have gone up for recent wins
Horse that haven't had a run this season
Horses being put up who have been running around in weak races
Then there's questions around the going, and a lot of these have ran on good ground
Il Ridoto doesnt win that often, and ground may have gone against him
I've short listed every damn horse. and then taken them out. Headache, I should move on but this is one of my fav races
The horse that I really like, is Hoe Joly Smoke. Travelled so well last time out, just didnt find up the hill over 3 mile. But does Skelton have 3 in here for this race, and why is Dan on Panic Attack.
I have a tracker with a note on Panic Attack, from a while back, saying "back this horse when running in a Mares race". 9 years old, and she'll have to run a career best, and thats without a prep run. Struggling to side with her despite the jockey making her as his pick - maybe they use this as the prep and then come back next month to win dec's renewal?
Vincenzo keeps popping back up, unexposed over this distance. Training know to get them race fit 1st time out.
Then again, I dont think last seasons novice's where that good!
I went around circles and then shorted Issar d'Airy at huge price. Every in and out this horse, but feel the handicapper has given him a chance. Doesn't want it too soft though - doh!
ARHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Really struggling this year, normally have a strong view
You have horses like Bad that have gone up for recent wins
Horse that haven't had a run this season
Horses being put up who have been running around in weak races
Then there's questions around the going, and a lot of these have ran on good ground
Il Ridoto doesnt win that often, and ground may have gone against him
I've short listed every damn horse. and then taken them out. Headache, I should move on but this is one of my fav races
The horse that I really like, is Hoe Joly Smoke. Travelled so well last time out, just didnt find up the hill over 3 mile. But does Skelton have 3 in here for this race, and why is Dan on Panic Attack.
I have a tracker with a note on Panic Attack, from a while back, saying "back this horse when running in a Mares race". 9 years old, and she'll have to run a career best, and thats without a prep run. Struggling to side with her despite the jockey making her as his pick - maybe they use this as the prep and then come back next month to win dec's renewal?
Vincenzo keeps popping back up, unexposed over this distance. Training know to get them race fit 1st time out.
Then again, I dont think last seasons novice's where that good!
I went around circles and then shorted Issar d'Airy at huge price. Every in and out this horse, but feel the handicapper has given him a chance. Doesn't want it too soft though - doh!
ARHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
opatcho
Member
- Joined
- Jan 29, 2018
- Messages
- 3,976
- Reaction score
- 955
- Points
- 83
He’ll have no weight, with claimer on board aswell
worth a bet, and I may go back in if I see him lining up near the front of the pack
Lobos
Fat Jockey Patron - DGC Winner 2021
- Joined
- Mar 9, 2019
- Messages
- 29,290
- Reaction score
- 6,546
- Points
- 83
opatcho
Member
- Joined
- Jan 29, 2018
- Messages
- 3,976
- Reaction score
- 955
- Points
- 83
Gary has said he’d prefer good ground in a quote I found a year or so back
But the horse has won twice at Newbury on soft
Lobos
Fat Jockey Patron - DGC Winner 2021
- Joined
- Mar 9, 2019
- Messages
- 29,290
- Reaction score
- 6,546
- Points
- 83
Cheers. Have had a quick sweep through all the runners and can't find one that really excels on really testing ground.
It might just pay to go with the class horse in the field Jagwar. Despite now being off 12 stone there still appears to be confidence in him.
opatcho
Member
- Joined
- Jan 29, 2018
- Messages
- 3,976
- Reaction score
- 955
- Points
- 83
First few home in today's PPGB all wanted softer going, which wasnt a surprise lol.
So sticking with that for tomorrow's Greatwood
How is Gibbs Island giving Iberico Lord 1lbs tomorrow - the later has won a Greatwood and a Betfair Hurdle.
I have Mirabad covered, back earlier in the week antepost, but looking for 1 more as its a big field.
Main Bet: Castle Carrock (9/1), i like to back horses that haven’t been seen by the handicapper, and this one has good form and has ran well in some decent races already - in graded company. Beat Diva Luna at Sandown over soft, finished slowly. I normally look for Dan S or Hendro’s, but King has done well in this race. He’ll be my main bet
Small fun bets
I did add Imprical Lord. He was 11/1 for the Champ Hurdle following his betfair hurdle win, where he beat won useful types. I've also added Faivoir, at silly odds. 10 year old, so I'm not going crazy with this one - kept the horse in training after a long lay off. Could pull up, but he's the joker in the pack and has plenty of experience over soft ground
*Edited after reviewing the card again
So sticking with that for tomorrow's Greatwood
How is Gibbs Island giving Iberico Lord 1lbs tomorrow - the later has won a Greatwood and a Betfair Hurdle.
I have Mirabad covered, back earlier in the week antepost, but looking for 1 more as its a big field.
Main Bet: Castle Carrock (9/1), i like to back horses that haven’t been seen by the handicapper, and this one has good form and has ran well in some decent races already - in graded company. Beat Diva Luna at Sandown over soft, finished slowly. I normally look for Dan S or Hendro’s, but King has done well in this race. He’ll be my main bet
Small fun bets
I did add Imprical Lord. He was 11/1 for the Champ Hurdle following his betfair hurdle win, where he beat won useful types. I've also added Faivoir, at silly odds. 10 year old, so I'm not going crazy with this one - kept the horse in training after a long lay off. Could pull up, but he's the joker in the pack and has plenty of experience over soft ground
*Edited after reviewing the card again
Last edited:
Having backed Alexei a couple of times last season I had him on my short list at the beginning of this season and he duly obliged last time out. I just worry about the ground for him today and think Iberico Lord might be the one. Henderson had Impose Toi spot on to win at Aintree and I think he can repeat the dose today.
Over at Navan, Wingmen is interesting on chase debut but I can't bring myself to back him against a 1/7 shot.
Over at Navan, Wingmen is interesting on chase debut but I can't bring myself to back him against a 1/7 shot.
While I'm on, may I just say how well Harry Skelton his riding. The way he threw Panic Attack at the last fence yesterday was such an amazing sight to see, and how well she responded. A beatifully judged ride on Soldie Reeves today too 
Didn’t think there was much point creating a thread for Scottish national werkend.
Two Cheltenham fancies today who missed Cheltenham, backed each way double today as knew both would drift from their opening prices Wednesday evening.
Secret Force and Donnacha.
Backed King Of Answers while back and will back Motregaard as well as he’s on a low mark and looks a proper stayer after his win at Ascot last time out.
Edit - what a load of bollocks that was
He’s either shite or they’re saving him for something else which seems stupid to go to all that trouble stable jock coming over etc but the alarming drift to 16/1 on the exchanges tells you some of the story.
Two Cheltenham fancies today who missed Cheltenham, backed each way double today as knew both would drift from their opening prices Wednesday evening.
Secret Force and Donnacha.
Backed King Of Answers while back and will back Motregaard as well as he’s on a low mark and looks a proper stayer after his win at Ascot last time out.
Edit - what a load of bollocks that was
He’s either shite or they’re saving him for something else which seems stupid to go to all that trouble stable jock coming over etc but the alarming drift to 16/1 on the exchanges tells you some of the story.
Last edited:
I’d agree with that. Think Narcisco might have just been a level above the rest imo.