Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020

[SeanRock]

The Gold Cup next year is between the 4 best staying novices of 2019 for me. Record for 2nd year chasers backs that up. I believe there’s still more to come from Topofthegame in the future. He won the RSA this year despite still obviously having more potential in the tank. Another summer filling out at grass & maturing will stand him in good stead. Delta Work & LIT would be my big worries more so Delta Work as I feel he has more scope for improvement & he got the worst luck in running of the 3 RSA hopefuls in March

 

[Quevega]

It's an angle but supporters of Santini will point to the fact that Delta Work has had twice as many lifetime runs as him with Topofthegame and Lostintranslation somewhere in between.
The fact is that they all improve at different rates and times so you're not necessarily guaranteed progress using either measure. Certainly, in Kemboy and Al Boum Photo, the 6yos were the big improvers last season but they fitted in the middle range of previous runs at the start of the season.
For what it's worth, and I may have said this before , for me Santini and Topofthegame are thorough stayers who would need proper soft or heavy to figure. I don't think that they have the basic speed that you would need to win a Gold Cup even in last season's going and speed isn't something that comes with age/maturity. Delta Work and Lostintranslation have both demonstrated a decent turn of foot and I see them as the main dangers at this stage but I wouldn't touch anything until it's back on the track because it's just guesswork as it stands.

Of the four horses in question I think this is bang on. I would prefer Delta and Lost for the Gold cup, but probably only on Goodish Ground. The other two would be more interesting if it was softer than good. That's at this point in time though. And there is a lot of time for stuff and opinions to change.

 

[robith]

I've Delta Work, LIT and TOTG covered and as far as I can see, it's job done unless something irresistible pops up in the season

 

[archie]

I've Delta Work, LIT and TOTG covered and as far as I can see, it's job done unless something irresistible pops up in the season

That's what Kemboy has been saying on his holiday postcards.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Here’s one for ya lads. If the four were all the same price for the Gold Cup.. who would you want to back? Order them.

For me:
1) Delta Work
2) Topofthegame
3) Lostintranslation
4) Santini

 

[archie]

The Gold Cup next year is between the 4 best staying novices of 2019 for me. Record for 2nd year chasers backs that up.

Just to muddy the waters slightly, in the last 10 Gold Cups exactly half were won by second season chasers. Coneygree was a novice and Imperial Commander, Synchronised, Don Cossack and Native River were third season.

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

I still can’t decide if Santini is just a slow old boat or did very well to get as close as he did after the prep

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Here’s one for ya lads. If the four were all the same price for the Gold Cup.. who would you want to back? Order them.

For me:
1) Delta Work
2) Topofthegame
3) Lostintranslation
4) Santini

Tough one but I'd go with:

Santini
TOTG
Lostintranslation
Delta Work

Hoping someone adds OK Corral to the GC market on the exchanges before the season starts. I haven't given up hope with him.

 

[somer1]

Here’s one for ya lads. If the four were all the same price for the Gold Cup.. who would you want to back? Order them.
For my take on it it would be
1 Santini
2 Delta Work
3 TOTG
4 Lit

 

[Kevloaf]

That's what Kemboy has been saying on his holiday postcards.

:highly_amused: Excellent.



If all four of those novices were the same price I'd have Topofthegame as the number 1 - as he won the RSA and that gives him the best most relevant form IMO.

LIT would be my fourth choice and I'd probaby back Delta Work over Santini if they were the same price as I think you need compensating for Santini's actually record.


Delta Work and Santini should both be bigger than TOTG on form, and depending on how you view the Aintree form (which when talking about the Gold Cup next year, would make it less important), then Lostintranslation should be the biggest price of the lot...



Lots more than just form to go on though, and the 'form' isn't far enough distances to rule horses out.... technically a different track, different day, they'll have different preps, be different sizes and most importantly, different prices.




Great to mull over even this far out.... but they need to step up a level to achieve what Kemboy's done so far, and the Boum

 

[SeanRock]

Just to muddy the waters slightly, in the last 10 Gold Cups exactly half were won by second season chasers. Coneygree was a novice and Imperial Commander, Synchronised, Don Cossack and Native River were third season.

Don’t get me wrong Archie, fully respect your lad but for my money he’s more suited to an Aintree/Punchestown style track than the Cheltenham test. Unfortunately we didn’t get a chance to see him prove that right or wrong this year.

I also think last seasons novice chasers were well above the norm so the 2nd season chaser start rings home harder.

 

[archie]

Don’t get me wrong Archie, fully respect your lad but for my money he’s more suited to an Aintree/Punchestown style track than the Cheltenham test. Unfortunately we didn’t get a chance to see him prove that right or wrong this year.

I also think last seasons novice chasers were well above the norm so the 2nd season chaser start rings home harder.

As you can probably tell, I really don't get this "doesn't act at Cheltenham" thing. I've said it before but 5th in a Neptune and 4th in a JLT is decent form and in line with his public form at that time. I'm also puzzled about the apparent linking of Aintree and Punchestown as similar courses with one being flat and left-handed and the other undulating and right-handed. It's tempting to say that the two combined add up to Cheltenham.

He's won on all going from good to heavy. Left-handed and right-handed courses. Flat or undulating. Sharp and/or galloping. He races keenly but wasn't fazed by the attentions of Definitly Red at Punchestown and then outstayed Al Boum Photo up the hill.

He's a pro. He may or may not be good enough next March and he's certainly no value in the betting but the Cheltenham factor just isn't in the equation.

As for the novice form, this time last year everyone was talking about how impressive Presenting Percy had been in the RSA and Shattered Love in the JLT. Until they come out and prove it in open company I wouldn't be touching any of them with a barge-pole.

 

[robith]

That's what Kemboy has been saying on his holiday postcards.

Love it archie!

 

[SeanRock]

As you can probably tell, I really don't get this "doesn't act at Cheltenham" thing. I've said it before but 5th in a Neptune and 4th in a JLT is decent form and in line with his public form at that time. I'm also puzzled about the apparent linking of Aintree and Punchestown as similar courses with one being flat and left-handed and the other undulating and right-handed. It's tempting to say that the two combined add up to Cheltenham.

He's won on all going from good to heavy. Left-handed and right-handed courses. Flat or undulating. Sharp and/or galloping. He races keenly but wasn't fazed by the attentions of Definitly Red at Punchestown and then outstayed Al Boum Photo up the hill.

He's a pro. He may or may not be good enough next March and he's certainly no value in the betting but the Cheltenham factor just isn't in the equation.

As for the novice form, this time last year everyone was talking about how impressive Presenting Percy had been in the RSA and Shattered Love in the JLT. Until they come out and prove it in open company I wouldn't be touching any of them with a barge-pole.

I’m not doubting Kemboy’s obvious talent or potential for a second Archie but Aintree/Punchestown will never be the stamina test 3m2f around Cheltenham is. His record around the track definitely isn’t off putting but it’s not a big positive either.

I’d personally prefer to have a contender with course form of 1/2s in the book than 4/5s. No doubt he’s on an upward curve but it’s my opinion that last seasons best bunch of staying novice chasers have the potential to be even better & for my money are more suited to the race conditions.

With regards to Presenting Percy I recall yourself even suggesting he wasn’t exactly unexposed when winning the RSA. The same doesn’t apply to this years bunch for me.

 

[The Beast]

This debate around Santini has been excellent , thoroughly discussed. Here,s my take on this big slow boat.

He isnt slow , you only have to see his record at Kempton and Aintree to see that.

What intrigues me most his is Cheltenham record overall , I am not convinced he likes the undulations.

He excels at newbury ,2/2 which bodes well for his early season target The Ladbrooke (Im on at 12s)

Three reasons why I think he has his best days in front of him
1 - Such a big frame of a horse he still filling it.
2 - His preparation for last year wasn't great , not his fault and I can see him improving massively this term on what he has done already.
3 - Mentally he wasnt battle hardened from so few runs , expect that to change with experience gained from last season.

Can he win a Gold Cup - Possibly ,but that niggling doubt about the hill remain. Hope his prep runs include some hill of note for me to change my mind. I like him a lot.

 

[Quevega]

Been looking at Gold Cup Market this afternoon.

Am I wrong ? Or is their not much value in this market compared to previous years.

I'm Sure that last year some of the second season novices were still available at 33's or 40's. Like Al Boum Photo et al.

If you go down oddschecker then you have to go a fair way down the list before you see anything that's overpriced IMO.

The angle I took was the 7yr olds which has been mentioned on this thread recently by a few.

The four 7 yr olds who contested the Gold Cup this year were. (I'm guessing but I reckon all were 33-1 or much bigger at this stage)
Kemboy
Elegant Escape
Al Boum Photo
& Clan Des Obeaux.

All four were probably not at the top of most peoples list's going into the season as there were other leading novices like Monalee & Presenting Percy. But they all had tremendous years one way or another.

Finishing 1st, 5th and 6th and burger bar - in the race itself.

So with that in mind I'm seriously considering backing the following horses.

Burrows Saint 66-1 B365.
Defi du Seuil 40-1 B365
Discorama 66-1 B365
Vinndication 100-1 Unibet
Champ 50-1 B365 -

All these for one reason or another aren't expected to be contenders, but all have valid cases to end up being there on the day and in with an improvers chance.

The three I like the most are.

Burrows Saint -
won Irish national, trainer is very good and Gold cup would feasibly be a target as they would expect him to improve to that level over the season if things go to plan.

Defi de Seuil -
One of the better novices from last season and many people assume it may stay over shorter (and they're probably right), but it's not out of the question that this horse could improve for further, much like Lostintranslation appeared to do at aintree. An impressive JLT winner, previous triumph winner who is competitive in grade ones over 2 miles. Classy horse and trainer is more than capable.

Champ -
Will be 8 next year and may even stay hurdling, but if he does go chasing and gets out early enough and looks super impressive (which is possible) then they may have a crack at the thistlecrack/Coneygree route. It has to be tempting given his age and even if he sticks to novice company in 2019, the denman chase or Cotswold Chase as a final prep before a gold cup run, are often softish grade ones (open company).

All these selections have plenty of ifs and buts and will need things to fall into place, and the prices reflect this to a certain extent, but I think they are all a little overpriced when you look at the positives.

I'll definitely hold fire before betting but if Champ is conformed chasing and remains 50-1 then I'll probably take a punt on him.
I'll also see where Defi starts his season (distance wise) also.
Might back Burrows soon enough but expect he may go under radar for long enough given Willie has the first two in the market already.

Of the other two, the trainers wouldn't provide me with massive confidence, but both are very capable. Vinndication has been far more a taking horse than results in recent times and they perhaps ought to just get down to business now and stop fannying so much.
Discorama could easily be one that has been brought along slowly, and the four miler form may well look good later in season, he definitely has a heart for the battle (unless that day frightened him), and I think Invitation Only was in with a shout in the Gold cup before sadly departing.

 

[Scooby91]

Been looking at Gold Cup Market this afternoon.

Am I wrong ? Or is their not much value in this market compared to previous years.

I'm Sure that last year some of the second season novices were still available at 33's or 40's. Like Al Boum Photo et al.

If you go down oddschecker then you have to go a fair way down the list before you see anything that's overpriced IMO.

The angle I took was the 7yr olds which has been mentioned on this thread recently by a few.

The four 7 yr olds who contested the Gold Cup this year were.
Kemboy
Elegant Escape
Al Boum Photo
& Clan Des Obeaux.

All four were probably not at the top of most peoples list's going into the season as there were other leading novices like Monalee & Presenting Percy. But they all had tremendous years one way or another.

Finishing 1st, 5th and 6th and burger bar - in the race itself.

So with that in mind I'm seriously considering backing the following horses.

Burrows Saint 66-1 B365.
Defi du Seuil 40-1 B365
Discorama 66-1 B365
Vinndication 100-1 Unibet
Champ 50-1 B365 -

All these for one reason or another aren't expected to be contenders, but all have valid cases to end up being there on the day and in with an improvers chance.

The three I like the most are.

Burrows Saint -
won Irish national, trainer is very good and Gold cup would feasibly be a target as they would expect him to improve to that level over the season if things go to plan.

Defi de Seuil -
One of the better novices from last season and many people assume it may stay over shorter (and they're probably right), but it's not out of the question that this horse could improve for further, much like Lostintranslation appeared to do at aintree. An impressive JLT winner, previous triumph winner who is competitive in grade ones over 2 miles. Classy horse and trainer is more than capable.

Champ -
Will be 8 next year and may even stay hurdling, but if he does go chasing and gets out early enough and looks super impressive (which is possible) then they may have a crack at the thistlecrack/Coneygree route. It has to be tempting given his age and even if he sticks to novice company in 2019, the denman chase or Cotswold Chase as a final prep before a gold cup run, are often softish grade ones (open company).

All these selections have plenty of ifs and buts and will need things to fall into place, and the prices reflect this to a certain extent, but I think they are all a little overpriced when you look at the positives.

I'll definitely hold fire before betting but if Champ is conformed chasing and remains 50-1 then I'll probably take a punt on him.
I'll also see where Defi starts his season (distance wise) also.
Might back Burrows soon enough but expect he may go under radar for long enough given Willie has the first two in the market already.

Of the other two, the trainers wouldn't provide me with massive confidence, but both are very capable. Vinndication has been far more a taking horse than results in recent times and they perhaps ought to just get down to business now and stop fannying so much.
Discorama could easily be one that has been brought along slowly, and the four miler form may well look good later in season, he definitely has a heart for the battle (unless that day frightened him), and I think Invitation Only was in with a shout in the Gold cup before sadly departing.

Prices are awful currently, when you had the likes of shattered love, kemboy, alboum photo.... all at 33s to 50s last year. And this years placed horses in the RSA are 10s /12s.


(Bar the obvious in alboum photo and kemboy)
Im only interested in 1 horse ( Delta Work) but he really should be a 25/1 + chance going on historical odds of the likes of alboum photo and disko , who had very simular achievents to date.

 

[Kevloaf]

I considered Burrows Saint at 66s as a lively outsider but the horse he beat in the Irish National wouldn't get anywhere near placing in a Gold Cup so I put a pin in it for now

 

[taylorch1990]

Been looking at Gold Cup Market this afternoon.

Am I wrong ? Or is their not much value in this market compared to previous years.

I'm Sure that last year some of the second season novices were still available at 33's or 40's. Like Al Boum Photo et al.

If you go down oddschecker then you have to go a fair way down the list before you see anything that's overpriced IMO.

The angle I took was the 7yr olds which has been mentioned on this thread recently by a few.

The four 7 yr olds who contested the Gold Cup this year were. (I'm guessing but I reckon all were 33-1 or much bigger at this stage)
Kemboy
Elegant Escape
Al Boum Photo
& Clan Des Obeaux.

All four were probably not at the top of most peoples list's going into the season as there were other leading novices like Monalee & Presenting Percy. But they all had tremendous years one way or another.

Finishing 1st, 5th and 6th and burger bar - in the race itself.

So with that in mind I'm seriously considering backing the following horses.

Burrows Saint 66-1 B365.
Defi du Seuil 40-1 B365
Discorama 66-1 B365
Vinndication 100-1 Unibet
Champ 50-1 B365 -

All these for one reason or another aren't expected to be contenders, but all have valid cases to end up being there on the day and in with an improvers chance.

The three I like the most are.

Burrows Saint -
won Irish national, trainer is very good and Gold cup would feasibly be a target as they would expect him to improve to that level over the season if things go to plan.

Defi de Seuil -
One of the better novices from last season and many people assume it may stay over shorter (and they're probably right), but it's not out of the question that this horse could improve for further, much like Lostintranslation appeared to do at aintree. An impressive JLT winner, previous triumph winner who is competitive in grade ones over 2 miles. Classy horse and trainer is more than capable.

Champ -
Will be 8 next year and may even stay hurdling, but if he does go chasing and gets out early enough and looks super impressive (which is possible) then they may have a crack at the thistlecrack/Coneygree route. It has to be tempting given his age and even if he sticks to novice company in 2019, the denman chase or Cotswold Chase as a final prep before a gold cup run, are often softish grade ones (open company).

All these selections have plenty of ifs and buts and will need things to fall into place, and the prices reflect this to a certain extent, but I think they are all a little overpriced when you look at the positives.

I'll definitely hold fire before betting but if Champ is conformed chasing and remains 50-1 then I'll probably take a punt on him.
I'll also see where Defi starts his season (distance wise) also.
Might back Burrows soon enough but expect he may go under radar for long enough given Willie has the first two in the market already.

Of the other two, the trainers wouldn't provide me with massive confidence, but both are very capable. Vinndication has been far more a taking horse than results in recent times and they perhaps ought to just get down to business now and stop fannying so much.
Discorama could easily be one that has been brought along slowly, and the four miler form may well look good later in season, he definitely has a heart for the battle (unless that day frightened him), and I think Invitation Only was in with a shout in the Gold cup before sadly departing.

Couldn't agree more regarding the value Hard to get involved at this stage but I have come up with a similar shortlist to you Burrows Saint stood out at the prices but Mullins already has 2 at the front of the market so could be a national horse instead. Discorama has great Cheltenham form and the 4 Miler is a decent guide in recent years. And Vinndication is a cliff horse for me I'll back him wherever he runs for better or worse.

 

[The King Pimm]

Vinndication schooled poorly in the build up to the JLT but after being withdrawn did turn up and complete but never really competed, the JLT was the first and only time he had raced at Cheltenham so whilst he would really need to improve this season to be remotely competitive Kemboy ran a similar race in the previous JLT and went on to make the necessary improvement to win Grade 1 races so it’s possible with Vinndication. He is certainly well thought of by Kim Bailey and was one of Paul Ferguson’s horses to follow last season.