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Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020
- Thread starter archie
- Start date
Need more info in the hypothetical question.
Do all the others horses make it?
Does he win the Ladbroke Trophy?
What is his prep like?
...and also, the fact he might not get there does at least need acknowledging... it isn't a straight forward as just saying "what would his SP be"
He might go off shorter than 12/1, but he's not good value now at 12/1 based on his form.
I have backed him at 12/1 for the Ladbroke Trophy - if you are desperate to back him?
I just think he's under priced on what he's actually achieved.... that doesn't mean he can't win but he isn't a good value bet in May
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Not everybody is looking to do that...
Some people are looking for the winner.
If you're going to make a book for the race, or arb, back multiple... my advice is that Santini at 12/1 is not worth backing at this stage...
He might go off shorter, but he's done nothing to warrent it yet on the track for me, so I think the VALUE in his price isn't there.... the bookies have factored in the potential that you're seeing (and we've all seen)
Currently, I'd say he's the most over rated horse for the race next year....
If he was 25/1 I'd 100% be backing him...
The King Pimm
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
It’s probably already been mentioned but Santini is currently 50/1 with B365 to win the Ladbrokes Trophy & the Gold Cup
I can see why the PP comment might have come across harsh but the way he was handled last year was abysmal and that alone is enough to make me look elsewhere. I really hope I’m proved wrong because I bought into the promise he had shown in his RSA. Class doesn’t disappear overnight but I’m going to need convincing.
No Kev, I did look after Kemboy’s Aintree run but I still wasn’t interested. I’m guessing you’ve got him covered at double/triple the price he is now and I’m delighted for you
I can see why the PP comment might have come across harsh but the way he was handled last year was abysmal and that alone is enough to make me look elsewhere. I really hope I’m proved wrong because I bought into the promise he had shown in his RSA. Class doesn’t disappear overnight but I’m going to need convincing.
No Kev, I did look after Kemboy’s Aintree run but I still wasn’t interested. I’m guessing you’ve got him covered at double/triple the price he is now and I’m delighted for you
No, all my bets are posted though if you want a laugh.
Morley Street
Member
I would never laugh at anyone’s selections Kev, that was a ‘cool’ emoji apparently. Fair enough it could have been viewed sarcastically but I didn’t think something that small could bruise your ego.
I was offering my opinion on the GC because that’s what this thread is for right? For me PP’s halo has slipped but it won’t take much to put it straight if campaigned a little more loosely. I’m just not willing to back him at this moment.
I was offering my opinion on the GC because that’s what this thread is for right? For me PP’s halo has slipped but it won’t take much to put it straight if campaigned a little more loosely. I’m just not willing to back him at this moment.
The King Pimm
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Cheers for that MS, I’ve just seen it on the Request a Bet, I’ll cash out now and re bet with Sky thanks
I didn't take any offense...and my ego can't be bruised :highly_amused: I was saying all my bets are posted so you can see what I've backed and you might find it funny.... (as I've got a free bet on Santini)!
I'd definitely laugh at other people's selections... just because someone has an opinion doesn't mean they're right.
If two people have an opposite opinion, one of them must be right? I have seen that silly post about two people looking at a '6'/'9' and them "both being right".... well, they're not, as it was originally a 6 or a 9
PP's 'halo' slipping based on him being injured isn't a fair assessment? More realistic is that he didn't deserve the halo in the first place and/or we've not had chance to see whether he deserves it still.
It doesn't take a huge leap of faith to accept he didn't run his race, and consider he's twice the price of Al Boum Photo who he was in the process of beating in the RSA. It isn't proof he's better, but it's an angle!
Another point, Santini seems to be getting a lot of love and excuses made for him despite not winning (and his price doesn't reflect it)... he was beaten by Kilbricken Storm at Cheltenham, as well as La Bague Au Roi at Kempton and Topofthegame in the same race AND the RSA. People want to keep his halo glowing when he's been beaten pretty fairly in both races. I don't think he should be shorter than Presenting Percy at this stage.
Presenting Percy won over hurdles against an average field and then got injured during the race.... to rule him out based on that alone would be foolish.
You don't need to back either... and again, I will refer you to my original statement, you can have a look at my bets and have a laugh if you like
Deteriorating or losing some of that 2-mile pace? And he's still beating everything in the division.
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Deteriorating for me but they're not machines and will have their ups and downs.
In any event, I don't think that he's got a prayer of staying the Gold Cup trip and he has to be at least 5/1 to go for it. Factor in the, say, 1/2 for him to get to Cheltenham fit and well and you're effectively expecting him to start at even money at current prices.
Each to their own, of course.
There is an argument, given the potential strength of next years renewal, that 12/1 Santini isn’t value and I accept that but races are never won on form alone otherwise favourites would win every race and bookmakers wouldn’t exist.
At this moment in time I’m of the view he ran well in his Potato race as a very inexperienced horse, he was poorly prepped last year in that 3m at a good ground Kempton would never play to his strengths, then his final prep was a shambles given the vaccine issues Hendo faced.
For me Santini has the potential to be a Gold Cup winner but so do half a dozen others, that said I’m happy mixing the 3 RSA horses with a couple of bankers, no doubt Altior and Paisley Park will suffer setbacks and target Aintree...
At this moment in time I’m of the view he ran well in his Potato race as a very inexperienced horse, he was poorly prepped last year in that 3m at a good ground Kempton would never play to his strengths, then his final prep was a shambles given the vaccine issues Hendo faced.
For me Santini has the potential to be a Gold Cup winner but so do half a dozen others, that said I’m happy mixing the 3 RSA horses with a couple of bankers, no doubt Altior and Paisley Park will suffer setbacks and target Aintree...
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At this moment in time, any horse can only be even money to turn up for this race. That means that 12/1 now represents 11/2 on the day.
Last season, Clan Des Obeaux won a G1 and a G2 on the run up to Cheltenham and started at 5/1 against an uneasy favourite. I'm struggling to see how Santini can perform to a similar level this season because the standard prep races just don't suit him. It's difficult to see a reason why his price would alter in the next 6 months which is why I'm 100% with Kev that 12/1 is simply not value.
Slightly different if you need a price now for multiples but I'd want a reason for staking the money now rather than when they're back in training.
Last season, Clan Des Obeaux won a G1 and a G2 on the run up to Cheltenham and started at 5/1 against an uneasy favourite. I'm struggling to see how Santini can perform to a similar level this season because the standard prep races just don't suit him. It's difficult to see a reason why his price would alter in the next 6 months which is why I'm 100% with Kev that 12/1 is simply not value.
Slightly different if you need a price now for multiples but I'd want a reason for staking the money now rather than when they're back in training.
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Yep, agree with that archie.
Santini won’t be shorter than 10/1 come Paddy Power day or whatever it’s called these days so there is no obvious rush, however, free bets that expire need to be placed now and there’s no guarantee my 2 remaining accounts will survive the Summer and I’d like a few live multis running.
I’ve grown used to missing the value others enjoy and 12/1 for multi purposes is fine for me, if I had a dozen accounts with a lifetime guarantee of no restrictions I would behave differently...
Santini won’t be shorter than 10/1 come Paddy Power day or whatever it’s called these days so there is no obvious rush, however, free bets that expire need to be placed now and there’s no guarantee my 2 remaining accounts will survive the Summer and I’d like a few live multis running.
I’ve grown used to missing the value others enjoy and 12/1 for multi purposes is fine for me, if I had a dozen accounts with a lifetime guarantee of no restrictions I would behave differently...
Based on what Archie? If Altior wins a King George, the likely scenario if he turns up, I can certainly see him going off close to evens. I’d have him closer to 3/1 to go for it given connections have stated an intention to step up in trip and nobody does that to tackle a Ryanair.
Re. Stamina I’d say the trip (provided it’s not run in a bog a la 2018) is an overplayed factor
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Based mainly on breeding. The dam has produced 5 others to race and none has won at further than 2m4f with most sticking to 2m. High Chaparral can produce stayers but you want more stamina on the dam side.
I can quite see Altior aiming at the KG but I'd expect that they'd see enough at Kempton to go back to 2m at the Festival. To me it makes much more sense to take 4/1 for the KG if you have to back him for something. He'd be nothing like evens for March even if he won well.
As with every other horse, unless you're looking at multiples this market will be stagnant for months yet and nothing is value right now.
Fair play if your doing it from a breeding perspective, it’s not something I tend to place much emphasis on (mainly due to having little knowledge around it)
I’m judging purely by eye of his racing, and a contrarian view of what is actually required to win a GC. ‘Speed’ horses have a fantastic record when given the chance