• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020

To be fair, I've had enough people telling me that Kemboy isn't bred to get more than 3 miles and I'm happy to ignore them because Willie is confident that stamina isn't a problem. Given that he's won me the neck end of £5k in prize-money in the last month, I tend to not look at it from a betting point of view.

If it's your gut feel that Altior will stay and Nicky goes that route, I'm just not qualified to decide whether or not it's a sensible bet. I just don't see that anything changes through the summer.
 
archie said:
At this moment in time, any horse can only be even money to turn up for this race. That means that 12/1 now represents 11/2 on the day.

Last season, Clan Des Obeaux won a G1 and a G2 on the run up to Cheltenham and started at 5/1 against an uneasy favourite. I'm struggling to see how Santini can perform to a similar level this season because the standard prep races just don't suit him. It's difficult to see a reason why his price would alter in the next 6 months which is why I'm 100% with Kev that 12/1 is simply not value.

Slightly different if you need a price now for multiples but I'd want a reason for staking the money now rather than when they're back in training.
Click to expand...

I think that’s an excellent post. A couple of very good points made
 
I do feel the need to emphasise that all my comments are about how I, as a light and cautious ante-post player, would approach the book.

The absolute disclaimer is that no-one should consider it as advice about their own investments.
 
archie said:
At this moment in time, any horse can only be even money to turn up for this race. That means that 12/1 now represents 11/2 on the day.

Last season, Clan Des Obeaux won a G1 and a G2 on the run up to Cheltenham and started at 5/1 against an uneasy favourite. I'm struggling to see how Santini can perform to a similar level this season because the standard prep races just don't suit him. It's difficult to see a reason why his price would alter in the next 6 months which is why I'm 100% with Kev that 12/1 is simply not value.
Click to expand...

In theory and as a whole for most horses this makes absolute sense and I would completely agree but just taking Santini in isolation to his price and how it will change through the year... (not the argument of it being value)

For all his career has always been shorter than he should have been so comparing him to other horses or using logic is slightly skewed.

Santini was around this price (12/1) at the start of last season. Then all it took was a few good words here and there in the previews, stable tours etc and by mid October, still yet to race over fences he was a top price 8/1 and a general 6/1 in places. After his chase debut at Newbury (1st December) he was down to 9/2 and as low as 3/1 for the RSA. Despite what was essentially flopping at Kempton when only 3rd at 11/10F AND then having a bad prep not only missing his intended trial race but also the foot issues in the days leading up to the race he still went off 3/1 for the RSA, a shorter price than the eventual winner TOTG who had beaten him at Kempton.

Clan des Obeaux on the other hand was at the start of last season an outsider for the Gold Cup and available at 50/1 for the race prior to his King George win. however good his wins were at Kempton and Ascot, such a big price at that point always meant that his price wouldn't tumble as much as some. Nicholls has always held him in high regard but he's had nothing like the same level of praise that has followed Santini. He won't of course go for the same races and you have opposition to consider but if hypothetically Santini were to run in and win both the King George and Denman Chase this season he would 100% be shorter than CdO was however the other Gold Cup contenders have done. Quite often and not always right prices are reflective of potential rather than proven form.

Now the fact the division is deep and the open company markets tend to not be as volatile and less likely to succumb to a positive stable tour etc or a half decent chase debut should mean his price holds but don't be surprised if we at some stage between now and December we are remarking how his price has got shorter by a point or 2 despite not actually doing anything.

IF you reeeally fancy Santini to come out on top next March AND you are happy to back horses this far out I can see why you would take the price if you take the viewpoint that he will be shorter as the season progresses and I think his career to date suggests that will happen even if his bare form doesn't quite justify it.

As has been said though already, for me you take the 12/1 for the Ladbroke now and go from there. Take the same price for a race 4 months in advance. You know he won't be going to Kempton again, and it would appear without being confirmed like the likely target for him.

He's rated 163 which although high (Bobs Worth 160, Denman (1st year) 161) you'd have to fancy him to be right up there if he has any chance of being a leading Gold Cup contender and challenging the likes of Al Boum Photo (175) and Kemboy (177). Plenty of improvement will be needed by the novices to get that level that's for sure. Frankly unless say Topofthegame / Lostintranslation also lines up he needs to win to be a serious Gold Cup player. (Djakadam defied flopping there but as a whole i'd side by this view)

On Topofthegame - Harry Derham said on a recent podcast that PN had already mapped out his route for next season, though did not go into detail. You'd have to assume Kempton and the King George is almost certainly off the agenda with both Cyrname and Clan des Obeaux for the race...Perhaps either or a mix of the following campaigns:

Charlie Hall (early Nov)
Betfair Chase (late Nov)
Denman Chase (Feb)

(as Silv Conti did in his open company year)

or

Ladbroke (early Dec)
Lexus? (late Dec)
Denman Chase (Feb)

(as Denman did)

How likely do we feel a Topofthegame vs Santini rematch in the Ladbroke? A race both trainers are happy to go for and whereby the obvious English winter trial (King George) would be unlikely for both.
 
That's all logical and well argued. I agree that the same price for the Ladbrokes is the better bet but I'd also say that my argument about not having any bet until they come back into training is a better strategy because there's no reason for either price to change until September.
 
archie said:
That's all logical and well argued. I agree that the same price for the Ladbrokes is the better bet but I'd also say that my argument about not having any bet until they come back into training is a better strategy because there's no reason for either price to change until September.
Click to expand...

There’s no reason for any price to change from now until September unless a market leader suffers an injury but we all know they will. Santini and annamix were 2 last year that halved in price over the summer without leaving their box
 
The ratings will make no difference to what happens next season but it's great to see him finally getting the credit and recognition that he deserves.
 
The Grand National skews quite a few ratings doesn't it! They should have a marathon category.



Altior has 3 horses rated level or superior to him. Must be an absolute golden era we're in.




Without me having to look it up archie, what was Kemboy rated after his JLT run (or at the end of last season) - how much improvement have we had? Certainly more than I'd have ever thought or predicted! Would have been a racing certainty in the Ladbroke!
 
From memory, he was 145 before and after the JLT, won a Punchestown handicap off 147 and ended the season on 157.
 
It looks a fascinating renewal in 2020, with a number of top staying novices with realistic chances to progress to Gold Cup level, as well as Kemboy topping the season off in style.

I reviewed a lot of videos today of the stating Novice races, partly to sort out my thought on the Ladbrokes Trophy (Hennessy) to see if there were one or two that may have a Handicap mark to give them a chance at Newbury.

I always prefer to back a first-timer in the Gold Cup, it’s a very soldi stat, and one that is tried and tested, regardless of the quality and prices of the returning Gold Cup runners from the previous season.

I think the novices going into the their second-season look strong anyway, and I thought I had a decent position with

DELTA WORK 1 point @ 25/1
DELTA WORK 1 point @ 20/1
TOPOFTHEGAME 1 point @ 15/1


What became apparent when prepping for the Ladbroke Trophy and reviewing the 2m4f novice races as well as the 3 milers, was how well LOSTINTRANSLATION ran at Cheltenham in the season, what a big strong type he is,a nd how much he improved going up to 3 miles to win the Aintree Grade 1.

He is right up their in my Gold Cup thoughts now, and I have added today
LOSTINTRANSLATION 1 point @ 16/1 to win the Gold Cup.

That’s a really interesting book of the three horses, and really looking forward to seeing them out in their opening runs in October/November.
 
I backed Lost in Translation for the Gold cup , straight after the Festival h.fox, i remember Colin Tizzard.
saying after he ran at cheltenham " he's a gold cup horse " , but i think Robbie Power .
thought the shorter trip was the go . Really looking like a good race at the moment .
Half a dozen of them , all looking like real contenders.
 
Yes BC, plenty of room for various opinions in the Gold Cup market.
 
Second season chasers are certainly worth following because they are self-evidently more likely to improve. However, every year we get evidence that they don't improve at anything like the same rate and quite often the best second season chasers are not the best novices. For all the positive noises made at the start of the season, the likes of Presenting Percy, Monalee, Shattered Love and Terrefort really went nowhere while others progressed dramatically.
 
I think that is where the 6yr old vs 7yr old is a key thing to look at when assessing the novices

Delta Work is 6 and needs to find 2 lengths + the step up to open company
Topofthegame is 7 as is Santini who both need to step up to open company

I would fancy the jump from 6->7 is beigher than 7->8 and therefore would have Delta Work as the number one danger from the novices
 
Hurricane fly said:
I think that is where the 6yr old vs 7yr old is a key thing to look at when assessing the novices

Delta Work is 6 and needs to find 2 lengths + the step up to open company
Topofthegame is 7 as is Santini who both need to step up to open company

I would fancy the jump from 6->7 is beigher than 7->8 and therefore would have Delta Work as the number one danger from the novices
Click to expand...

It's an angle but supporters of Santini will point to the fact that Delta Work has had twice as many lifetime runs as him with Topofthegame and Lostintranslation somewhere in between.
The fact is that they all improve at different rates and times so you're not necessarily guaranteed progress using either measure. Certainly, in Kemboy and Al Boum Photo, the 6yos were the big improvers last season but they fitted in the middle range of previous runs at the start of the season.
For what it's worth, and I may have said this before :cool: , for me Santini and Topofthegame are thorough stayers who would need proper soft or heavy to figure. I don't think that they have the basic speed that you would need to win a Gold Cup even in last season's going and speed isn't something that comes with age/maturity. Delta Work and Lostintranslation have both demonstrated a decent turn of foot and I see them as the main dangers at this stage but I wouldn't touch anything until it's back on the track because it's just guesswork as it stands.
 
I thought PP was a good thing for GC all season last year and even when he clearly had a troubled training issue after Christmas I still believed. Have to say i wouldnt touch it with a barge pole until he runs another decent race.As for who will be champ next year?
 
Welshman said:
I thought PP was a good thing for GC all season last year and even when he clearly had a troubled training issue after Christmas I still believed. Have to say i wouldnt touch it with a barge pole until he runs another decent race.As for who will be champ next year?
Click to expand...

So you we're with him despite there being rumours about him not being right....

....but against him after it's a fact that he wasn't right?



I'd be more forgiving when there are actual excuses...than worrying about rumours before an event.



Either way, I can see why you'd wait to see Presenting Percy have a run. Could be waiting a while though :highly_amused:

I hope he goes come back to (at very least his novice chase) form - as I don't think we got any answers from his campaign last year.

I'm not writing him off yet though.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom