I'd be one firmly in in the Topofthegame / Santini camp for the Ladbroke.
The main question I actually had was why Santini has always been considerably shorter in the betting for it between the pair. Checking just now I can see both have actually shortened and the difference is now 10/1 (TOTG) and 9/1 but until a few days ago that difference was 4 points (14/1 vs 10/1) which I couldn't quite get my head around. Bar a couple of course wins for Santini surely TOTG starts off as the most likely winner no? Though I fully expect Santini to be targeting the race, right now there's been nothing from connections yet unless i've missed anything at the tail end of last season where as Nicholls has repeatedly said several times through the summer the plan. I've just been very surprised by how the market has priced the pair. As much as I think Santini should be tailormade for the race, the same goes for TOTG. Santini has lost twice now when they have met. Excuses in both - yes. But how much so is debatable for me. I've seen a few posters in here mention Santini as the likely winner (or at least the one with the most interest this far out). Interested to hear why him over TOTG? I honestly can't really split them and i've backed both as those excuses for Santini could swing it in his favour but for all the while he's the shortest price of the pair i'd have to go with the bigger price if coming down on one horse...
Fully expect both to run and have no issue of the weights / marks. Al Boum Photo (175) and Kemboy (177) have set the standard. The rest have to get to that level. I fully expect the top 3 in the RSA to be 170 minimum horses come the Spring. So running off 163 and 164 although high they should really be right involved in the finish if they are to make that step up. We've seen the odd Gold Cup runner flop (Djakadam for fitness?, Lord Windermere how he won a Gold Cup?!) but generally if you're up that standard i.e being at the very least competitive if not placing / winning you have to be winning this i.e Native River, Many Clouds, Smad Place, Total Recall. The actual weight I see being no issue. Both are built to carry the weight and the type of race should suit to a tee. Both have form of running horses off high / top weights too:
Henderson:
2005 - Trabolgan 11st 12 - WON
2012 - Bobs Worth 11st 6 - 160 - WON
2014 - Triolo D'Alene 11st 12 - 157 - PU
2017 - Whisper 11st 8 - 161 - 2nd
Nicholls:
2007 - Denman 11st 12 - 161 - WON
2009 - Denman 11st 12 - 174 - WON
2012 - Tidal Bay 11st 12 - 166 - 2nd
2014 - Rocky Creek 11st 11 - 156 - PU
2015 - Saphir Du Rheu 11st 12 - 163 - 5th
Plenty of their runners have run off similar marks with no hesitation and performed very well. It's also a race that should suit both very well when alternatives are slightly thin on the ground. Particularly for Santini.
80/1 and 66/1 were enough of a price to get me to bet. Working out the prices both would have been a little more than that rolling the winnings on however I do think the timing of the race could play a factor in the price either of them will be if they were to win. Both Lostintranslation and Delta Work (and any run and win he does may well have a knock on effect to this pair anyway) will likely run, maybe a couple of times before the Ladbroke but the 2 shortest priced horses - Kemboy and Al Boum Photo or surely unlikely to run until close to Christmas. So I can see any win in this race being the first big marker layed down for the Gold Cup. So in that regard i'm imagining if either were to win, the price they become will be a few points shorter than they should be. One as bookies tend to duck for cover and overreact but 2 because the 2 Mullins runners won't have run yet. So I could easily see a 'rolled on' double not being tooo far off this price potentially.
I do however hope there could be an overreaction in the market to the horse that doesn't win and depending on the outcome straight after the race will be the time I back the loser of the pair for the Gold Cup. Though i'm not expecting anything as wild you only have to look at the prices of 33/1 for both Santini and Delta Work after narrow defeats in the RSA. Cue Card vs Vautour vs Don Cossack's King George had a fairly wild reaction too if I recall.
That said a handicap will always mean until entries and weights are announced the shape of the race could change considerably so I can't be too confident. Certainly agree there are plenty of good opposition that could line up. And this pair running off such marks will only go on to tempt other trainers and owners to have a go but i'd be very confident either of those 2 can win it even off such marks. I think it'll take a very good horse and one that goes onto be Gold Cup standard to stop them.
Or a ridiculously well handicapped horse. Without de-railing the thread too much Mister Malarky straight after the RSA was one I noted for the race especially with Tizzards record but he has over 17 lengths to find from the RSA which even with the weight swing is huge. Captain Chaos through a form line with Lake View Lad (156) I think is a huge handicap fancy off just 135 under someone like Skelton but trip is probably slightly too far (as the Kim Muir was), he'd need to win to likely get in the race and again I just think even bundles of weight won't be enough.
p.s I apologise for just how many times I had to type both Santini and TOTG in this post - particularly the first paragraph!
