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Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020

I'm subconsciously a Tizzard fan boi so leave him alone :highly_amused:
 
archie said:
Given his age and experience, it's fair to conclude that PP had most of his improvement in his first chasing season. His hurdle run last season was on a par with the same race the previous season so there's no real evidence that he could have run to even 170 in the Gold Cup and 10/3 was just a bonkers price.
He has to make up at least 10lb on ABP to be competitive and, being a year older, that is simply unlikely at best. The current price is about right.
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Archie, how have you come up to this conclusion? You have 2 races out of novice company to go off, one over hurdles and one where he clearly wasn't A1 over fences.....The hurdle run if using RPRs was better than the year before, not on par + given one was off a 53 day break and the other a 316 day break, it's weak evidence.

I do agree though he's another year older and as we are in the dark on his setbacks or whatever they were- it would be hard to be confident he'll properly bounce back over fences. Probably why if he were mine he'd go to the stayers probably.
 
jack1092 said:
Archie, how have you come up to this conclusion? You have 2 races out of novice company to go off, one over hurdles and one where he clearly wasn't A1 over fences.....The hurdle run if using RPRs was better than the year before, not on par + given one was off a 53 day break and the other a 316 day break, it's weak evidence.
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I think it's fair to say that we all use the figures in the way that support our thesis. Percy's OR over hurdles went up by just one for the hurdle run last season and I'd suggest that that makes it on a par with the previous run.
As for whether he was A1 over fences, the unsoundness was listed in the vet's post race report but Russell never blamed it and we will never know when it came on.
Other than ABP, who Scooby insists would have given Percy a race in the RSA, nothing has come out of that race and, given the ratings for last season's edition, I think that it's perfectly reasonable to take the position that 167 was over-egging Percy. He is most unlikely to make 170 this season so 20/1 is about right.
 
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Shattered Love and Presenting Percy were better than Kemboy and Al Boum Photo this time last year.

Bit of a reality check when you have hindsight in your armoury.



Last year I had PP onside at 40/1 ... interrupted prep (or bad training) .... being lame or running his race .... whichever angle we take, ultimately it's down to the price.

At 40s last year it was easy to be with him, at 3s it was easy to crab him.

I love the horse but can't imagine being as bullish this year as last year, as the landscape has changed! I will be with him, but if you can't back a little with your heart in the Gold Cup then when can you.
 
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archie said:
I think it's fair to say that we all use the figures in the way that support our thesis. Percy's OR over hurdles went up by just one for the hurdle run last season and I'd suggest that that makes it on a par with the previous run.
As for whether he was A1 over fences, the unsoundness was listed in the vet's post race report but Russell never blamed it and we will never know when it came on.
Other than ABP, who Scooby insists would have given Percy a race in the RSA, nothing has come out of that race and, given the ratings for last season's edition, I think that it's perfectly reasonable to take the position that 167 was over-egging Percy. He is most unlikely to make 170 this season so 20/1 is about right.
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The break makes a big difference too Archie. I'll take a vet report over a jockey's word a lot of the time. He didn't run enough last year to prove your theory right or wrong. I do agree he'll find it difficult to run up to that level this year given a pretty horrid year last year though, hopefully he can he's only 8 going on 9.
 
Inverting that is a good point though what novices has tizzard actually had that he has done a good job with?
 
Muswell said:
Inverting that is a good point though what novices has tizzard actually had that he has done a good job with?
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You'll be waiting a while :p

It's about time he stepped aside and let Joe have a crack at it.... he's the driver behind all the advances they've actually made.... can't be a coincedence that he retired and the training picked up when he became assistant.
 
279 days and 70 runs since Pat Kelly trained a winner over jumps.
 
archie said:
279 days and 70 runs since Pat Kelly trained a winner over jumps.
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and I suppose Willie Mullins has a better record?








hooooooooooow many runners?


Can't be many trainers with more festival wins divided by number of horses trained.



Could teach Mr Mullins and his a billion horses in every division in every race a thing or two.


You want to have a word and see if you can get Kemboy moved yard....
 
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Since 1/5/19;
56 runs from 17 horses. 0 wins, 8 places.

Foreigner had a song about him.
 
I Have Waited So Long - 1978
but Presenting Certainty, I'm a
Fool For You Anyway - 1977
 
Clan Des Obeaux vs Delta Work tomorrow, will be a nice sighter
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Clan Des Obeaux vs Delta Work tomorrow, will be a nice sighter
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If Nicholls' didn't need the run first time out you'd want to be siding with CDO if he's 2nd fav.

A watching brief to see how strong that RSA was though for sure!
 
Kevloaf said:
If Nicholls' didn't need the run first time out you'd want to be siding with CDO if he's 2nd fav.

A watching brief to see how strong that RSA was though for sure!
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CDO wins this for me tomorrow and I think DW wins the Gold Cup.
 
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