Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020

[Craigy14]

I can see the cases for both PP and ABP but have to agree and think most will that ABP is the one to beat as the reigning champ. I am a big fan of Delta Work and have backed accordingly as I can see an improvement from him in open company and his price was better than others at the top of the market.

At 22/1 for PP I think the bookies are forgetting about him, yes he has to bounce back but at 9 come the festival he definitely isn’t over the hill. Fingers crossed 2 good races into him prior to the festival and 22/1 will be less than half that price come gold cup day.

 

[Humble Pie]

I know I am.

Nobody knows, but when Presenting Percy was 10/3f last year and is 22/1 now I think that's worth taking a little play on.


People are making assumptions that Delta Work would have been better with a different ride (Gordon Elliott)
People are making assumptions Santini will definitely be better for the 3m2f trip (I've not heard anyone disagree)
People are making assumptions that Lostintranslation's beating of Topofthegame is a true running of their merits.


If PPercy was 10/1 and Santini, Delta Work, Lostintranslation, Al Boum Photo were all 22/1 - it's a totally different ball game.

Yes
People making assumptions
Would be a boring bloody forum without them lol

 

[charlie]

I know I am.

Nobody knows, but when Presenting Percy was 10/3f last year and is 22/1 now I think that's worth taking a little play on.


People are making assumptions that Delta Work would have been better with a different ride (Gordon Elliott)
People are making assumptions Santini will definitely be better for the 3m2f trip (I've not heard anyone disagree)
People are making assumptions that Lostintranslation's beating of Topofthegame is a true running of their merits.


If PPercy was 10/1 and Santini, Delta Work, Lostintranslation, Al Boum Photo were all 22/1 - it's a totally different ball game.

You have now

 

[jack1092]

Percy is certainly one to watch for entries wise etc. Delargy made a fair point.

Poor prep, injury or not wanting to run him on the ground, whatever the reasoning was he made the track twice only. I would ssay it's safe to assume he's a fair wack better than the GC. There's noway ABP is all of a sudden a 33l better horse. Scooby, with a better prep you say he can "do a little better", how much is a little better lengths-wise roughly?

Personally wouldn't be surprised if he ends up in the Stayers this year.

 

[archie]

Given his age and experience, it's fair to conclude that PP had most of his improvement in his first chasing season. His hurdle run last season was on a par with the same race the previous season so there's no real evidence that he could have run to even 170 in the Gold Cup and 10/3 was just a bonkers price.
He has to make up at least 10lb on ABP to be competitive and, being a year older, that is simply unlikely at best. The current price is about right.

 

[Kevloaf]

Given his age and experience, it's fair to conclude that PP had most of his improvement in his first chasing season. His hurdle run last season was on a par with the same race the previous season so there's no real evidence that he could have run to even 170 in the Gold Cup and 10/3 was just a bonkers price.
He has to make up at least 10lb on ABP to be competitive and, being a year older, that is simply unlikely at best. The current price is about right.

I think it's fair to conclude we just don't know.

He has got 10lbs to find from the Gold Cup run...

ABP went into the Gold Cup rated 164 and came out rated 175.

Percy came out of the race where he finished lame rated 165 after going in with a hurdle rating of 157.


He could end up in the stayers, we may never see him again, he might have regressed and he might go on to prove the RSA two years ago was absolutely stunning.


I suppose we also have no idea when he might be due a run either...

 

[archie]

He has got 10lbs to find from the Gold Cup run...

From the Gold Cup run he has to find about 2 stone.

In reality, his RSA run was overrated and that was compounded by him going up 2lb without leaving his stable thanks to Monalee's run in the Savills.

 

[Quevega]

Fair bit of guesswork involved int there ?

 

[Middle_Of_March]

From the Gold Cup run he has to find about 2 stone.

In reality, his RSA run was overrated and that was compounded by him going up 2lb without leaving his stable thanks to Monalee's run in the Savills.

I’ve never been a massive fan or backer of the horse but I think it’s a bit harsh saying that RSA run was overrated. He travelled like a monster and then picked up when asked to power up the hill. He couldn’t have done much more.

I still don’t trust his trainer at all and think he is a massive negative for the horse’s chances but I won’t pretend that RSA run wasn’t superb.

 

[Kevloaf]

I still don’t trust his trainer at all and think he is a massive negative for the horse’s chances but I won’t pretend that RSA run wasn’t superb.

Repeating old ground here, but that trainer has a couple of festival wins to his name... I don't see how that's a negative to the horses chances.

 

[Kevloaf]

From the Gold Cup run he has to find about 2 stone.

In reality, his RSA run was overrated and that was compounded by him going up 2lb without leaving his stable thanks to Monalee's run in the Savills.

If his RSA win was over rated, what was ABP's run in the same race?

The OR's or RPR's or whichever ratings used are how you try and find the winner I think that's so hard, as they're only ever available after the event.

I know you did some looking into how much horses improve on average, but that's not a specific science and there would be countless examples of exceptions to the rule too (not that it is a rule).

Fair bit of guesswork involved int there ?

Loads. :highly_amused:

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Repeating old ground here, but that trainer has a couple of festival wins to his name... I don't see how that's a negative to the horses chances.

He does. That could be that PP is just a very good horse and he won DESPITE Patrick Kelly training him. But I still don’t think he’s a positive against the training ability of Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins and Elliott. I’d even prefer Tizzard training a Gold Cup horse than Kelly.

He seemed to have no idea what he wanted to do last season with PP. He went from campaigning the horse aggressively two seasons in a row to suddenly wrapping the horse in cotton wool and finding excuse after excuse not to run.

 

[Quevega]

Repeating old ground here, but that trainer has a couple of festival wins to his name... I don't see how that's a negative to the horses chances.

His percentage runner to win ratio is probably better than most. (at the fez)

 

[Kevloaf]

He seemed to have no idea what he wanted to do last season with PP. He went from campaigning the horse aggressively two seasons in a row to suddenly wrapping the horse in cotton wool and finding excuse after excuse not to run.

Is there not a chance that he was FORCED to do that?


Absence of the facts regarding WHY there was a change means neither of us know.


I'm saying I think he was forced to do it, which in my opinion makes more sense than him going against a winning formula?

Also, I assume he's not a moron, and if he did get it wrong last year, I'd say that he's more likely to revert to what worked before...

 

[Kevloaf]

He does. That could be that PP is just a very good horse and he won DESPITE Patrick Kelly training him. But I still don’t think he’s a positive against the training ability of Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins and Elliott. I’d even prefer Tizzard training a Gold Cup horse than Kelly.

Tizzard is a joke The other 4 you named are 4 of the best 10 trainers ever probably.

I'd prefer Pat Kelly, Joseph O'Brien, Harry Fry, Olly Murphy and Dan Skelton over Tizzard.... but it doesn't mean Lostintranslation won't win

 

[Scooby91]

Tizzard is a joke The other 4 you named are 4 of the best 10 trainers ever probably.

I'd prefer Pat Kelly, Joseph O'Brien, Harry Fry, Olly Murphy and Dan Skelton over Tizzard.... but it doesn't mean Lostintranslation won't win

I dont rate tizzard as a race planner. (More than happy to take up the role if hes reading this) but, he must be a very good trainer of horses. He has nowhere near the numbers in training, but he still gets them to the big races.

 

[luisgarciaisgod]

Tizzard might be a joke but he's a Gold Cup winnng trainer.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Tizzard might be a joke but he's a Gold Cup winnng trainer.

I think he might have the 2020 gold cup winner on his hands as well. I just can't bring myself to back him at the price.

 

[Kevloaf]

I dont rate tizzard as a race planner. (More than happy to take up the role if hes reading this) but, he must be a very good trainer of horses. He has nowhere near the numbers in training, but he still gets them to the big races.

Big races in April usually, when everyone is trying to win back what they've lost on his horses who've flopped at the festival



He's alright, I just find him to be SO over rated. People talk as if he's a positive and it's just because he's different. The media love the story about how he is a cow farmer, and he's got a little accent and although they're expanding it's all about how he's a martyr for the little guys who want to break into the big league.

Ultimately, he had Thistlecrack who was a freakishly good horse, Cue Card.... Native River... but would anyone think another trainer wouldn't have had the success with those horses? We'll never know of course but I don't see Tizzard as a positive.

 

[luisgarciaisgod]

I'm big on Lostintranslation for the Gold Cup this year, backed him for it after he got beaten in the JLT at 25s because it was clear as day he wanted further. Also think the demolition of Topofthegame at Aintree is somewhat understated. Full of excuses for TOTG but it wasn't as if LIT was coming off a leisurely stroll at the festival either.