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Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

  • Total voters
    66
charlie said:
Sky Sports Racing just did a ‘Percy by Proxy’ with timeform:

Presenting Percy was 167, now ?
Monalee was 160, now 165
Elegant Escape 154, now 161
Al Boul Photo 158, now 166

Their point was those behind PP in the RSA have upped their game since, whereas PP was already ahead of what they have gone on to achieve on ratings this season. Assuming there is improvement to come from PP (there is no reason not to), then what will he improve to? I appreciate PP will have stronger rivals than those listed here, but plotting his forward trajectory based on that RSA is good starting point and I see no reason to think he won’t have improved into the low 170’s.

He doesn’t make me the most money by a long stretch, but I want PP to win!
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The argument against would be:
1. PP is a year older than Elegant Escape and Al Boum Photo so it's quite possible that he wouldn't improve quite so much.
2. Monalee's improvement is at 2m4f and is overstated at that.
3. PP only officially improved by 2lb from last season over hurdles.

The fact is that no-one knows and no-one will until the day.
 
archie said:
The argument against would be:
1. PP is a year older than Elegant Escape and Al Boum Photo so it's quite possible that he wouldn't improve quite so much.
2. Monalee's improvement is at 2m4f and is overstated at that.
3. PP only officially improved by 2lb from last season over hurdles.

The fact is that no-one knows and no-one will until the day.
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Yeh all fair points Archie, cant argue with any of that
 
Point 3 wouldn't matter very much- at the end of the day, we are comparing a hurdle run from last season off a 53 day break and this year off a 316 day break?

It's probably worth noting point 2 also takes in Kemboy and the others in behind Monalee. Since Monalee on rprs hasn't improved a button this season over 3miles it has to degrade the xmas run somewhat surely? For all i like Kemboy
 
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Presenting Percy's overall form wont look great because he's always trained for Cheltenham where he's won easily twice. I wouldn't compare him to Elegant Escape he has more class than that, EE is just a boat.
 
Monalee, Elegant Escape and Al Boum Photo have all 'improved' this season and none of them are rated higher than Percy was.

So if Percy hasn't improved at all, he's still the one they have to beat.

That doesn't account for Kemboy, Clan Des Obeaux - or any of the other horses that weren't in the RSA though.

I've only seen 1 person on the forum argue any of the horses from the RSA will be ahead of Presenting Percy this year, so the point they're making on TV isn't really that exciting? (acually 2, if we count the Elegant Escape person)
 
Kemboy 10/1 and Clan Des Obeaux 9/2 ...

Kemboy is over double the price of Clan Des Obeaux... They both won the 'best race' possible on either side of the Irish Sea, with holes to be picked in both if you wanted to... but CDO's King George may not be stronger than Kemboy's Irish Gold Cup.

Both unexposed and the main difference is CDO won a match race against a horse he was entitled to beat... whereas Kemboy has not been seen?

If CDO was 10/1 and Kemboy 9/2 I'd back CDO sure, but for the same reasons...

It can't be the Nicholls factor?





Purely on a price based punt, and you had to back one of those two, which would it be?
 
Kevloaf said:
Kemboy 10/1 and Clan Des Obeaux 9/2 ...

Kemboy is over double the price of Clan Des Obeaux... They both won the 'best race' possible on either side of the Irish Sea, with holes to be picked in both if you wanted to... but CDO's King George may not be stronger than Kemboy's Irish Gold Cup.

Both unexposed and the main difference is CDO won a match race against a horse he was entitled to beat... whereas Kemboy has not been seen?

If CDO was 10/1 and Kemboy 9/2 I'd back CDO sure, but for the same reasons...

It can't be the Nicholls factor?





Purely on a price based punt, and you had to back one of those two, which would it be?
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Easy, Kemboy all day of the two at the prices. The KG was rubbish, Irish Gold Cup much stronger.
 
I've asked it as an incredibly leading question, but that's my opinion too. I'm close to adding Kemboy tbh.

Just don't tell archie.:cool:
 
boopa said:
The KG was very well-run the Lexus wasn't.
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CDO did it well enough but let’s not pretend like he didn’t beat an aging Thistlecrack past his best, a horse not suited to kempton or the ground in Native River, a non stayer in Politilogue, the mighty double shuffle and tea for two, a might bite on the decline with wind problems and two market principles that fell before the race developed. Like I said, he did what was asked of him well enough and has clearly improved a lot, but the race fell into his lap and the Lexus form is a lot better IMO
 
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The Lexus showed Kemboy has the best turn of foot. The stride analysis and sectionals show it was slowly-run with a sprint finish.
 
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boopa said:
The Lexus showed Kemboy has the best turn of foot. The stride analysis and sectionals show it was slowly-run with a sprint finish.
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Just depends how seriously we take Mullins' comments that he'll imrpove for the step up in trip.

If he does have the stamina, he's got absolutely everything you'd want to see.

Might be more of a win only play I suppose with stamina the question mark.
 
Stamina isn't the only question mark with him. He is progressing but he's still quite immature compared to PP, CDO, Bellshill. He races keenly and he will be fresh, maybe too fresh. Willie thinks that will be a good thing, we'll see.
 
Archie - how would you summarise your lads previous visits to Cheltenham ?

As owner I’m sure you will have watched the tapes back plenty of times, this is not something I’ve done specific to Kemboy, but I was a shade disappointed with his JLT run whereas his Ballymore run showed more promise for me. Is there a danger he favors the Old Course ?
Or maybe anything he did in his novice years was going to be a bonus ?
 
boopa said:
Stamina isn't the only question mark with him. He is progressing but he's still quite immature compared to PP, CDO, Bellshill. He races keenly and he will be fresh, maybe too fresh. Willie thinks that will be a good thing, we'll see.
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So Clan Des Obeaux 9/2 ? :p
 
Istabraq said:
Archie - how would you summarise your lads previous visits to Cheltenham ?

As owner I’m sure you will have watched the tapes back plenty of times, this is not something I’ve done specific to Kemboy, but I was a shade disappointed with his JLT run whereas his Ballymore run showed more promise for me. Is there a danger he favors the Old Course ?
Or maybe anything he did in his novice years was going to be a bonus ?
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To be honest, I think he ran like an immature horse in both races. In particular, the JLT was only his 3rd chase and his chance went when Finians Oscar made a mistake in front of him and caused his own problem. In the circumstances he did well to finish a running on fourth (which counts as a place for stats purposes because he got in the winners enclosure:cool:).

I don't think the course is an issue. He ran ok but only ok at Leopardstown as a novice hurdler and he wasn't too shabby in the Savills.

Basically, it's hard to believe that he's there with a chance but I wouldn't swap him for anything else. No-one has any idea what PP will do so my main worries would be about CDO and Bellshill. I personally think that the KG fell into CDO's lap and KG form is over-rated every year but he did nothing wrong there or at Ascot. Bellshill improved the last time but you'd like to think that Kemboy has more improvement in him as well.
 
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