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Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

  • Total voters
    66
Just think last year took a lot out of both MB and NR. At that price you couldn't back him confidently.
 
DonnyBoy said:
The phrase Horses for courses I believe was made for Native River. Only ran twice though since last years race. Over them fences that came in for much ridicule at Haydock which suited no one and the KG where looking like tailing off at one stage finished with a right old rattle to finish 4th on a track he doesn't take to. Now onto where he the champion .
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Watch his performance at Newbury and compare it to his runs this season. I wouldn't bet double figures personally.
 
I love the horse he's made me a fair bit over the past few years. Couldn't back him at the price now. He's priced as if it's a soft ground Gold Cup.
 
boopa said:
I love the horse he's made me a fair bit over the past few years. Couldn't back him at the price now. He's priced as if it's a soft ground Gold Cup.
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It wont be a good ground gold cup whatever the weather after the BHA fatalities report. They will be watering the shit out of it wouldnt be suprised if the festival starts on watered soft ground this year and they will probably water over night during the festival. They just cant take any chances this year
 
Chaser1980 said:
It wont be a good ground gold cup whatever the weather after the BHA fatalities report. They will be watering the shit out of it wouldnt be suprised if the festival starts on watered soft ground this year and they will probably water over night during the festival. They just cant take any chances this year
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I really don't understand this line of thinking. Last year's fatalities were on soft ground so why would you aim for that this year?
 
Tizzard on Native

He's a stamina horse and looks fit. We'll school him on Wednesday for a bit of practice and then hold our nerve. I hope Cheltenham put plenty of water on this week then it rains like hell then it will be nice, heavy ground for him.
 
As close to objective as I can get:

3/1 Presenting Percy
A thorough stayer who will be seen to best effect on softer going. May be the next superstar and win going away but may also get taken off his feet early on. Idiosyncratic preparation. Seems a very short price.

7/2 Clan Des Obeaux
Had a good season and looked very useful at Kempton and Ascot. Not absolutely certain to stay and, being a third season chaser with 13 chase runs, would be a little against the trends.

5/1 Native River
Another thorough stayer who's already been there and done it. Looks likely to give followers a proper run for their money but win chances greatly improved by soft ground.

9/1 Kemboy
Big improver in the last year and has beaten most of the other Irish. Stamina doubts in some quarters but trainer says he'll improve for the extra distance. Jumping an issue last season but has been ok the last three times. Probably the pick on a trends analysis.

10/1 Bellshill
Like Clan Des Obeaux a third season chaser but fewer runs than CDO. Good and improved performance the last time and likely mount of Ruby. Likely bang there with a clear round.

12/1 Road To Respect
Ground against him last year but has gone down twice at Leopardstown and it's hard to see him reversing the form. Would have a big chance in the Ryanair and trainer still not ruled out that race.

12/1 Al Boum Photo
One of last season's top staying novices. Not tried at open G1 level because of the ground and possible non-runner if the going is better than soft.

12/1 Might Bite
Looked nothing like last season's horse recently and age stats very much against him.

14/1 Thistlecrack
Age again an issue and also stamina doubts.

16/1 Frodon
A little under the radar because the high rating has mainly been obtained in handicaps. Can't see it winning but an early bold show likely.

16/1 Anibale Fly
Will need soft ground and likely to find others better even then.

16/1 Monalee
50:50 this race or the Ryanair but not really gone on from last season.

Others to consider:
20/1 Elegant Escape - may run a place in a real bog.
25/1 Shattered Love - better than this season's form and the mares' allowance will help.

You're welcome.
 
Good Summary Archie ., I think that's fair.
 
archie said:
As close to objective as I can get:

3/1 Presenting Percy
A thorough stayer who will be seen to best effect on softer going. May be the next superstar and win going away but may also get taken off his feet early on. Idiosyncratic preparation. Seems a very short price.

7/2 Clan Des Obeaux
Had a good season and looked very useful at Kempton and Ascot. Not absolutely certain to stay and, being a third season chaser with 13 chase runs, would be a little against the trends.

5/1 Native River
Another thorough stayer who's already been there and done it. Looks likely to give followers a proper run for their money but win chances greatly improved by soft ground.

9/1 Kemboy
Big improver in the last year and has beaten most of the other Irish. Stamina doubts in some quarters but trainer says he'll improve for the extra distance. Jumping an issue last season but has been ok the last three times. Probably the pick on a trends analysis.

10/1 Bellshill
Like Clan Des Obeaux a third season chaser but fewer runs than CDO. Good and improved performance the last time and likely mount of Ruby. Likely bang there with a clear round.

12/1 Road To Respect
Ground against him last year but has gone down twice at Leopardstown and it's hard to see him reversing the form. Would have a big chance in the Ryanair and trainer still not ruled out that race.

12/1 Al Boum Photo
One of last season's top staying novices. Not tried at open G1 level because of the ground and possible non-runner if the going is better than soft.

12/1 Might Bite
Looked nothing like last season's horse recently and age stats very much against him.

14/1 Thistlecrack
Age again an issue and also stamina doubts.

16/1 Frodon
A little under the radar because the high rating has mainly been obtained in handicaps. Can't see it winning but an early bold show likely.

16/1 Anibale Fly
Will need soft ground and likely to find others better even then.

16/1 Monalee
50:50 this race or the Ryanair but not really gone on from last season.

Others to consider:
20/1 Elegant Escape - may run a place in a real bog.
25/1 Shattered Love - better than this season's form and the mares' allowance will help.

You're welcome.
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...cheers. In respect of Kemboy, I like the horse so backed him months ago thinking Ryanair (27-1) was the way to go. Also took any race @ 18-1 but Gold Cup wasn’t on my radar. Saying that, he ran (and fell) in last years Irish National so Mullins must be convinced he gets this trip.
 
I’m claiming that’s a ‘talk up’ for Kemboy archie, first time I think, so will note that...
 
As the group that has Aramon have said, it's less than 3 weeks to go and it will be a very long 3 weeks so they're trying to keep a lid on the anticipation. His chance is there for all to see but, genuinely, if he gets to line up my first thought and hope would be for him to come home safe and in one piece.
 
archie said:
As the group that has Aramon have said, it's less than 3 weeks to go and it will be a very long 3 weeks so they're trying to keep a lid on the anticipation. His chance is there for all to see but, genuinely, if he gets to line up my first thought and hope would be for him to come home safe and in one piece.
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I have Kemboy , adament he hasnt had the credit he should have this season. To beat a field by 7L going away was breathtaking and music to my ears hearing Willie says he will improve for the trip.Have Thistlecrack and Clan as back up but Kemboy the one Im growing in confidence about as we draw closer to the off ,cant wait to see how it plays out.
 
Kemboy is a backable price as well.

Now Archie has given us the nod ... all in on the Aramon Kemboy each way double
 
boopa said:
You don't think Ruby will ride Kemboy?
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He hasn't ridden him in a race for over 2 years and he won a G1 on Bellshill less than a month ago. Paul or David would be just fine.
 
Sky Sports Racing just did a ‘Percy by Proxy’ with timeform:

Presenting Percy was 167, now ?
Monalee was 160, now 165
Elegant Escape 154, now 161
Al Boul Photo 158, now 166

Their point was those behind PP in the RSA have upped their game since, whereas PP was already ahead of what they have gone on to achieve on ratings this season. Assuming there is improvement to come from PP (there is no reason not to), then what will he improve to? I appreciate PP will have stronger rivals than those listed here, but plotting his forward trajectory based on that RSA is good starting point and I see no reason to think he won’t have improved into the low 170’s.

He doesn’t make me the most money by a long stretch, but I want PP to win!
 
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