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Cheltenham Gold Cup 2018

ryanh97 said:
If Might Bite runs again before the fez, it would probably be the Denman. Would be a good one against NR
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I think M.B will go straight there , with a racecourse gallop somewhere , Just my Opinion .
 
BigChaang said:
I think M.B will go straight there , with a racecourse gallop somewhere , Just my Opinion .
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“That’s the big question,” Henderson said, when I brought up the possibility of another pre-Festival outing. Alluding to Cheltenham’s Cotswold Chase at the end of this month, he added: “The one place I’m pretty sure it won’t be is here. I mean, I really can’t see the point of going three and a quarter miles in what is almost certain to be soft ground

“You would leave the Gold Cup somewhere halfway up that hill. No, he definitely wouldn’t run in the Cotswold. The Denman [at Newbury on 10 February], I suppose, is probably the only possibility. Otherwise, there’s every probability that he won’t go anywhere.”

From an interview at Chelt on New Years Day.
I'd say you're right BC....
 
I thought I'd read that Nicky H had said something like that.
 
Hendo not worried about any challengers that run in the Cotswold Chase then by the sounds of it :highly_amused:
 
Henderson stated in the racing post that he was likely to run Whisper in the Cotswold chase
 
Liammet said:
Henderson stated in the racing post that he was likely to run Whisper in the Cotswold chase
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:rolleyes:

If I owned Whisper I'd be calling him up asking him to explain himself :highly_amused:.

Jonjo quite bullish about Minella Rocco Ista...

O'Neill said: "Minella Rocco ran well in Ireland. He ran as if he had a bit of life left in him. He jumped well and he travelled nicely in the race.

"He just kept on galloping all the way to the line. He was not making any ground, but he didn't stop, which was good to see.

"I think the ground was better for him there and he got a nice, even run all the way. Everything went his way and he is a good horse when things go to plan.

"The plan will be to go back to the Gold Cup. He was second in it last year and he is entitled to have another crack at it."

Lydia Hislop has added Minella Rocco to her Cheltenham portfolio - check out why
 
79 horses in the last 20 years have run on a heavy ground race during the season before running in the gold cup and none of them have won it...
 
Heathfield said:
79 horses in the last 20 years have run on a heavy ground race during the season before running in the gold cup and none of them have won it...
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That stat is absolutely meaningless in my opinion.

Djakadam came 2nd the year he won the Thystes.
Coneygree won 3 races on soft ... maybe the going stick was heavy but the clerk of the course called it soft
Maybe there were no trials run in heavy that year.


Is that supposed to be relevant as its suggesting its a "slog" running in heavy ground which therefore means you cannot win a Gold Cup?

I'm baffled that I keep hearing this. Absolutely no way I'd use that as a sole reason to strike out a horse.

What if the Gold Cup is run in heavy this year too .... the stat would be counter productive surely!

Sounds like I woke up on the wrong side of bed doesn't it haha
 
Sizing John going straight here
 
Kevloaf said:
That stat is absolutely meaningless in my opinion.

Djakadam came 2nd the year he won the Thystes.
Coneygree won 3 races on soft ... maybe the going stick was heavy but the clerk of the course called it soft
Maybe there were no trials run in heavy that year.


Is that supposed to be relevant as its suggesting its a "slog" running in heavy ground which therefore means you cannot win a Gold Cup?

I'm baffled that I keep hearing this. Absolutely no way I'd use that as a sole reason to strike out a horse.

What if the Gold Cup is run in heavy this year too .... the stat would be counter productive surely!

Sounds like I woke up on the wrong side of bed doesn't it haha
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I think that's one of the stronger stats Kev.

Davy Russell (at a preview evening) described this very well, he explained that Gold Cup horses run against Gold Cup calibre horses, with novices it's possible to find them easy targets and they get to Cheltenham having beaten slow horses, that isn't the case with Gold Cup pretenders, all the big trials are G1s and championship races in their own right so you will get a championship standard pace and a true test.

He described the process and effort placed on a horse to take off in deep ground, how deep they land and the extra strain it has, he believed that it can take months for a horse to recover fully and some horses never recover.
Similar to the old National voodoo where it has been generally impossible for horses to win after winning such a gruelling race at Aintree.
He did say that they can do it once a season and recover but a horse of any real class can't go through it twice at championship level then expect to be competitive in March, but given the relatively low number of runs GC horses have these days and the recovery period necessary you would have to be concerned about any horse running in Dec/Jan on very deep ground.
Most GC horses make their seasonal reappearance no earlier than November, some December, so by Russell's description there is unlikely to be sufficient recovery time.

The going described by clerks of the course is supported by stick readings these days so small variations may exist but for there to be any 'heavy' in the description that stick must go in a long way.
 
I thought you would be pleased with the stat Kev. Suits Our Duke perfectly :devilish:
 
So the trend/stat is that 'non-novice staying chasers that have run on heavy don't win the gold cup'?

That does make more sense if it's non novices ....
 
Kevloaf said:
So the trend/stat is that 'non-novice staying chasers that have run on heavy don't win the gold cup'?

That does make more sense if it's non novices ....
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Pretty much yes, and of course novices don't enter/win Gold Cups (bar the obvious exception).
Like all trends you need to take a deeper look, if something falls at the first on heavy then he hasn't been exposed to the same rigours as those who finish the course so whilst that would be a trend buster, you would have to consider him....
 
No Irish Grand National winner has won the next year's Gold Cup since Arkle and Our Duke is no Arkle. For me, unless it comes up heavy enough to suit slow old boats, he's readily opposable.
Too be fair, he's a very good slow old boat but everything about him screams Nationals.
 
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archie said:
No Irish Grand National winner has won the next year's Gold Cup since Arkle and Our Duke is no Arkle. For me, unless it comes up heavy enough to suit slow old boats, he's readily opposable.
Too be fair, he's a very good slow old boat but everything about him screams Nationals.
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How many top class horses have tried that double Archie?
 
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I'm a big Disko fan. So hope there's something in it!
 
Heathfield said:
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That's great thanks. If you could do that at the start of March I'm sure it may be useful...

Personally, in light of the stat excluding novices I do see the relevance... as with all trends as ista days its about how you use them.

The more information available the better, regardless of how its used
 
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