The highlight of the first day of Cheltenham’s four day Festival, which kicks off on the 14th March, is the Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy, the big one for 2 mile hurdlers. Since 1998, thirteen winners have come from Ireland, with Annie Power, Faugheen, Jezki & Hurricane Fly taking the last 4 renewals.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-6-29
6yo: 3-6-33
7yo: 4-1-23
8yo: 1-4-16
9yo: 1-2-7
10yo: 0-0-4
11yo+: 0-1-7
9 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 9, they represented just 66.4% of total runners.
The only 5yo winner in the past 25 years was Katchit in 2008, and Sizing Europe did look the likely winner of the race before losing his action between the final 2 flights.
The only horse aged 10+ since 2005 to have finished placed was Hurricane Fly. The only winner aged 10+ in the last 50 years was Sea Pigeon in 1980/81.
Horses that ran well in this aged 5
Record of horses that had finished in first 4 as 5yos in following renewal:
In 1997 Theatreworld was 2nd as a 5yo and was 2nd in 1998
In 1997 I’m Supposin was 4th as a 5yo and was 3rd in 1998
In 2000 Hors La Loi was 2nd as a 5yo and won next running as a 7yo in 2002
In 2007 Afsoun was 3rd at as a 5yo and was 7th in 2008
In 2008 Katchit won it as a 5yo and finished 6th in 2009
In 2008 Punjabi finished 3rd as a 5yo and won it in 2009
In 2009 Celestial Halo finished 2nd as a 5yo and finished 4th in 2010
In 2009 Binocular finished 3rd as a 5yo and won it in 2010
Since 1997 there have been eight runners in the Champion Hurdle that had finished in the first 5 as 5yos in the previous renewal, they finished 32176141 (3-2-8).
Gender
Mares (1-0-3) had a poor record prior to Annie Power’s win in 2016. The 3 previous to run in had all been unplaced. Since 2000, prior to Annie Power, only Bilbao has made the frame when she finished 3rd in 2002. That year the first 2 in the betting went wrong during the race (Istabraq pulled up and Valiramix slipped up). It’s safe to say she would not have made the places had Valiramix completed.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last time out (exceptions finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in a grade 1 or 2)
8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 156+ last time
10 of 10 winners had run since Christmas
8 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season (2 exception won only start)
7 of 10 winners had run at least 10 times over hurdles (3 expcetions were 2nd season hurdlers that finished in first 4 in previous year's Supreme or Neptune)
8 of 10 winners were second or third season hurdlers (1 exception was 3rd in previous year's Champion Hurdle & other would have won Mares Hurdle the previous year but for final hurdle fall)
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (Sublimity had finished 4th in the previous season's Supreme Novices & Rock On Ruby had finished narrow 2nd in two grade 1's)
Last year’s race
Annie Power won last year’s Champion Hurdle by over 4 lengths from My Tent Or Your & Nichols Canyon, before taking the Aintree Hurdle by 18 lengths but hasn’t been seen since then. Form of those in behind her hasn’t worked out all that well. My Tent Or Yours has failed to win any of his 5 runs since, while Nichols Canyon has managed just 1 win from 5 runs since. The 4th, The New One, has gained 2 wins and a 2nd in grade 2 on 3 runs this season, while 5th & 6th, Top Notch & Identity Thief have won graded chases this season. The other 4 finishers in the race have gained 1 win from 11 collective hurdles starts since.
The combined subsequent hurdles record of 9 horses from last year to have had hurdles runs since is 5-9-31.
The form next time out of the 9 horses, to come out of the race and run over hurdles since reads 123F23535 (1-2-9).
Cheltenham Festival Form
Triumph Hurdle winner (Ivanovich Gorbatov): 612353FP (1-3-8)
Neptune Investments Novices' winner (Yorkhill): 231 (1-2-3)
County Hurdle winner (Superb Story): 4 (0-0-1)
Highest placed finisher from previous Supreme Novices to run in this: P03058P28 (0-2-9)
Highest placed finisher from previous Neptune Investments Novices' to run in this: 62131 (2-2-5)
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Champion Hurdle, finishing 333
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Supreme Novices' Hurdle, finishing 43
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Neptune Novices' Hurdle, finishing 21
5 of 5 second season hurdlers finished in first 4 in a grade 1 novice hurdle at previous festival
3 of 10 winners had won a race at the Cheltenham Festival (6 others had finished in first 4 in Champion, Supreme, Mares or Neptune)
9 of 10 winners finished in first 4 over hurdles at previous Cheltenham Festival (2 exception was Hurricane Fly in 2011 who might have won at previous 2 Festivals but for injury)
Other races
Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Vroum Vroum Mag): 1613144 (3-1-7)
Ryanair Hurdle (Petit Mouchoir): 20611433 (2-3-8)
Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Petit Mouchoir): 400613143 (2-2-9)
Hatton's Grace Hurdle winner (Apple's Jade): 211 (2-1-3)
Ascot Hurdle winner (Yanworth): 4321 (1-2-4)
Morgiana Hurdle winner (Nichols Canyon): F961433 (1-2-7)
Contenders Hurdle winner (Buveur D'Air): 6721 (1-1-4)
Anniversary Hurdle winner (Apple's Jade): 6135 (1-1-4)
Christmas Hurdle winner (Yanworth): 500421 (1-1-6)
International Hurdle winner (The New One): 62325435 (0-4-8)
Betfair Price Rush Hurdle winner (Ch'Tibello): 3U5 (0-1-3)
Top Novice hurdle winner (Buveur D'Air): P02 (0-1-3)
Champion Hurdle Trial winner (The New One): 379754 (0-1-6)
Galway Hurdle winner (Clondaw Warrior): 87 (0-0-2)
Elite Hurdle winner (Sceau Royal): 497 (0-0-3)
Masterson Holdings Hurdle winner (Sceau Royal): 560 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Christmas hurdle, finishing F321
3 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 111
3 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Ryanair Hurdle, finishing 112
3 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 114
3 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Hattons Grace Hurdle, finishing 311
3 of 4 British-trained winners ran in the Fighting Fifth, finishing 315
2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in the Kingwell Hurdle last time out, finishing 13
Trainers
Irish trained runners (6-5-47) have won 6 of the last 10 runnings.
Willie Mullins (4-4-14) saddled Hurricane Fly to finish 1st-3rd-1st-4th-3rd between 2011 & 2015 and also saddled the 1-2-3 in 2015, and the 1st & 3rd in 2016.
Nicky Henderson (2-7-21) has saddled 2 winners and 7 places from 21 runners in past 10 renewals.
Jessica Harrington (1-0-3) saddled Jezki to win it in 2014.
Alan King (1-0-6) won this with Katchit in 2008.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-2-5) has seen 2 of his 5 runners get placed.
Price
6 of 10 winners have been sent off between 9/1 and 22/1
Longer prices have held sway in this in past 10 years with only Willie Mullins bucking the trend with Hurricane Fly’s two wins at 11/4 & 13/8, Faugheen at 4/5 and Annie Power at 5/2, being the only 4 recent winners priced shorter than 9/1.
Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 1.68.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Gelding aged 6 to 9
- Won last time out (or placed in grade 1 or 2)
- Posted an RPR of 160+ last time out
- Run 2 to 4 times this season
- 2nd or 3rd season hurdler or finished in first 3 in 2016 Champion Hurdle
- Previously won a grade 1 hurdle
- Finished in first 3 in 2016 Champion Hurdle or won another race at 2016 Festival
- Won the Punchestown Champion Hurdle
- Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in Irish Champion and/or Ryanair Hurdle
- British-trained that finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth and/or Christmas Hurdle
- Ran in Kingwell, Contenders, Red Mills Trial or Irish Champion Hurdle last time
- Trained by Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson
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