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2017 Champion Hurdle

DJ will surely get the ride, won't he?

In the Triumph last year Jacob rode Sceau Royal and Ruby Footpad. I would have presumed Jacob gets first pick and with SR going off at 8/1 and Footpad 5/1 2nd fav wasn't Footpad Munir's first string?

Was SR heavily backed just before the race though? If i recall? So maybe the prices were different at time of jockey bookings. I didn't fancy either horse in the race last year so don't recall much about them
 
Moon Racer decision will be made on Saturday:

Conversation

12m
Harry Drew‏ @thechop333
Just to let people know, Saturday is when the decision will be made on Moon Racer 😀


1

10


5m
Colin Rice‏ @colin_rice84
@thechop333 easy decision. Do the right thing. #supreme





4m
Harry Drew‏ @thechop333
@colin_rice84 not what I want!





3m
Colin Rice‏ @colin_rice84
@thechop333 if you're in racing you must be a winner? And your chances of winning the supreme are so much greater than CH.




in reply to @colin_rice84

Harry Drew‏ @thechop333

@colin_rice84 he's 8, fragile,already a festival winner and already beaten the favourite and is 3/3 at the course.. why not?
7:24 pm · 9 Mar 2017
 
Moon Racer decision will be made on Saturday:

Conversation

12m
Harry Drew‏ @thechop333
Just to let people know, Saturday is when the decision will be made on Moon Racer


1

10


5m
Colin Rice‏ @colin_rice84
@thechop333 easy decision. Do the right thing. #supreme





4m
Harry Drew‏ @thechop333
@colin_rice84 not what I want!





3m
Colin Rice‏ @colin_rice84
@thechop333 if you're in racing you must be a winner? And your chances of winning the supreme are so much greater than CH.




in reply to @colin_rice84

Harry Drew‏ @thechop333

@colin_rice84 he's 8, fragile,already a festival winner and already beaten the favourite and is 3/3 at the course.. why not?
7:24 pm · 9 Mar 2017

Hahahahaaaaaa this is my friend! Hahahahaaaaaa

If you didn't read my post in the Chelt stories please do .... because it seems he hasn't learnt his lesson on making the first race all or bust again hahaha. I'm actually at the pub with a mutual friend of his who is coming instead this time. Incredible
 
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My friend has been told VVM will go for the Champion Hurdle and is absolutely flying at home. I am on at 12s already but may go in again NRNB.
 
I know the yard rated Limini higher than VVM last year so if they're not supplementing that one I can't see VVM in the shake up.

Just my take...
 
i think at 9s NRNB she warrants a look. Given the mares allowance, she is right up there on ratings...and a recent bad run has tainted everyones view on her.
Granted i don't think 2mile is her ideal trip and Mouchoir wont allow Ruby to dictate from the front..

On her 2mile beating of Identity thief- i would say shes a contender- i don't think he's a star, but he was 8/1 last year for this before blowing up.

I think he would beat most of the horses the main contenders like Yanworth and BDA have meaning i think 9/1 is quite nice on VVM
 
The highlight of the first day of Cheltenham’s four day Festival, which kicks off on the 14th March, is the Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy, the big one for 2 mile hurdlers. Since 1998, thirteen winners have come from Ireland, with Annie Power, Faugheen, Jezki & Hurricane Fly taking the last 4 renewals.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 1-6-29

6yo: 3-6-33

7yo: 4-1-23

8yo: 1-4-16

9yo: 1-2-7

10yo: 0-0-4

11yo+: 0-1-7

9 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 9, they represented just 66.4% of total runners.

The only 5yo winner in the past 25 years was Katchit in 2008, and Sizing Europe did look the likely winner of the race before losing his action between the final 2 flights.

The only horse aged 10+ since 2005 to have finished placed was Hurricane Fly. The only winner aged 10+ in the last 50 years was Sea Pigeon in 1980/81.



Horses that ran well in this aged 5

Record of horses that had finished in first 4 as 5yos in following renewal:

In 1997 Theatreworld was 2nd as a 5yo and was 2nd in 1998

In 1997 I’m Supposin was 4th as a 5yo and was 3rd in 1998

In 2000 Hors La Loi was 2nd as a 5yo and won next running as a 7yo in 2002

In 2007 Afsoun was 3rd at as a 5yo and was 7th in 2008

In 2008 Katchit won it as a 5yo and finished 6th in 2009

In 2008 Punjabi finished 3rd as a 5yo and won it in 2009

In 2009 Celestial Halo finished 2nd as a 5yo and finished 4th in 2010

In 2009 Binocular finished 3rd as a 5yo and won it in 2010

Since 1997 there have been eight runners in the Champion Hurdle that had finished in the first 5 as 5yos in the previous renewal, they finished 32176141 (3-2-8).



Gender

Mares (1-0-3) had a poor record prior to Annie Power’s win in 2016. The 3 previous to run in had all been unplaced. Since 2000, prior to Annie Power, only Bilbao has made the frame when she finished 3rd in 2002. That year the first 2 in the betting went wrong during the race (Istabraq pulled up and Valiramix slipped up). It’s safe to say she would not have made the places had Valiramix completed.



Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners won last time out (exceptions finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in a grade 1 or 2)

8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 156+ last time

10 of 10 winners had run since Christmas

8 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season (2 exception won only start)

7 of 10 winners had run at least 10 times over hurdles (3 expcetions were 2nd season hurdlers that finished in first 4 in previous year's Supreme or Neptune)

8 of 10 winners were second or third season hurdlers (1 exception was 3rd in previous year's Champion Hurdle & other would have won Mares Hurdle the previous year but for final hurdle fall)

8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (Sublimity had finished 4th in the previous season's Supreme Novices & Rock On Ruby had finished narrow 2nd in two grade 1's)



Last year’s race

Annie Power won last year’s Champion Hurdle by over 4 lengths from My Tent Or Your & Nichols Canyon, before taking the Aintree Hurdle by 18 lengths but hasn’t been seen since then. Form of those in behind her hasn’t worked out all that well. My Tent Or Yours has failed to win any of his 5 runs since, while Nichols Canyon has managed just 1 win from 5 runs since. The 4th, The New One, has gained 2 wins and a 2nd in grade 2 on 3 runs this season, while 5th & 6th, Top Notch & Identity Thief have won graded chases this season. The other 4 finishers in the race have gained 1 win from 11 collective hurdles starts since.

The combined subsequent hurdles record of 9 horses from last year to have had hurdles runs since is 5-9-31.

The form next time out of the 9 horses, to come out of the race and run over hurdles since reads 123F23535 (1-2-9).



Cheltenham Festival Form

Triumph Hurdle winner (Ivanovich Gorbatov): 612353FP (1-3-8)

Neptune Investments Novices' winner (Yorkhill): 231 (1-2-3)

County Hurdle winner (Superb Story): 4 (0-0-1)

Highest placed finisher from previous Supreme Novices to run in this: P03058P28 (0-2-9)

Highest placed finisher from previous Neptune Investments Novices' to run in this: 62131 (2-2-5)

3 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Champion Hurdle, finishing 333

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Supreme Novices' Hurdle, finishing 43

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Neptune Novices' Hurdle, finishing 21

5 of 5 second season hurdlers finished in first 4 in a grade 1 novice hurdle at previous festival

3 of 10 winners had won a race at the Cheltenham Festival (6 others had finished in first 4 in Champion, Supreme, Mares or Neptune)

9 of 10 winners finished in first 4 over hurdles at previous Cheltenham Festival (2 exception was Hurricane Fly in 2011 who might have won at previous 2 Festivals but for injury)



Other races

Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Vroum Vroum Mag): 1613144 (3-1-7)

Ryanair Hurdle (Petit Mouchoir): 20611433 (2-3-8)

Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Petit Mouchoir): 400613143 (2-2-9)

Hatton's Grace Hurdle winner (Apple's Jade): 211 (2-1-3)

Ascot Hurdle winner (Yanworth): 4321 (1-2-4)

Morgiana Hurdle winner (Nichols Canyon): F961433 (1-2-7)

Contenders Hurdle winner (Buveur D'Air): 6721 (1-1-4)

Anniversary Hurdle winner (Apple's Jade): 6135 (1-1-4)

Christmas Hurdle winner (Yanworth): 500421 (1-1-6)

International Hurdle winner (The New One): 62325435 (0-4-8)

Betfair Price Rush Hurdle winner (Ch'Tibello): 3U5 (0-1-3)

Top Novice hurdle winner (Buveur D'Air): P02 (0-1-3)

Champion Hurdle Trial winner (The New One): 379754 (0-1-6)

Galway Hurdle winner (Clondaw Warrior): 87 (0-0-2)

Elite Hurdle winner (Sceau Royal): 497 (0-0-3)

Masterson Holdings Hurdle winner (Sceau Royal): 560 (0-0-3)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Christmas hurdle, finishing F321

3 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 111

3 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Ryanair Hurdle, finishing 112

3 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 114

3 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Hattons Grace Hurdle, finishing 311

3 of 4 British-trained winners ran in the Fighting Fifth, finishing 315

2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in the Kingwell Hurdle last time out, finishing 13



Trainers

Irish trained runners (6-5-47) have won 6 of the last 10 runnings.

Willie Mullins (4-4-14) saddled Hurricane Fly to finish 1st-3rd-1st-4th-3rd between 2011 & 2015 and also saddled the 1-2-3 in 2015, and the 1st & 3rd in 2016.

Nicky Henderson (2-7-21) has saddled 2 winners and 7 places from 21 runners in past 10 renewals.

Jessica Harrington (1-0-3) saddled Jezki to win it in 2014.

Alan King (1-0-6) won this with Katchit in 2008.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-2-5) has seen 2 of his 5 runners get placed.



Price

6 of 10 winners have been sent off between 9/1 and 22/1

Longer prices have held sway in this in past 10 years with only Willie Mullins bucking the trend with Hurricane Fly’s two wins at 11/4 & 13/8, Faugheen at 4/5 and Annie Power at 5/2, being the only 4 recent winners priced shorter than 9/1.

Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 1.68.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Gelding aged 6 to 9

- Won last time out (or placed in grade 1 or 2)

- Posted an RPR of 160+ last time out

- Run 2 to 4 times this season

- 2nd or 3rd season hurdler or finished in first 3 in 2016 Champion Hurdle

- Previously won a grade 1 hurdle

- Finished in first 3 in 2016 Champion Hurdle or won another race at 2016 Festival

- Won the Punchestown Champion Hurdle

- Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in Irish Champion and/or Ryanair Hurdle

- British-trained that finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth and/or Christmas Hurdle

- Ran in Kingwell, Contenders, Red Mills Trial or Irish Champion Hurdle last time

- Trained by Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson


racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/cheltenham-day-1/champion-hurdle-trends-2017-1487201097
 
David Casey saido VVM is a better mare than Limini Ista at a recent preview Ista .... surely not as clear cut as it should be if one was good enough for this race though regardless!
 
Ruby has a decision of either:

Footpad
Wicklow Brave
VVM

Even with a below par VVM i'd be amazed if he's not on her. He doesn't have a hope on either of the other 2 imo even without taking into account VVM's 7lb allowance. They'll run her in this race even if she's not firing hoping she sparks on the day.
 
7 / 2 Yanworth
9 / 2 VVM
9 / 2 BDA
6 / 1 Petit Mouchoir
10 / 1 Brain Power
12 / 1 Moon Racer
14 1 Footpad
16 / 1 Sceau Royal
16 / 1 MTOY
20 / 1 TNO
33 / 1 Cyrus Darius
40 / 1 Wicklow Brave
40 / 1 Ct’Tibello


This is how i priced up the race...what do people think? VVM was a difficult one to price up when i did this (day limini wasn't declared).

I have taken her as a likely runner here for obvious reasons and priced accordingly. Will have Ruby on board which is an obvious positive. Now, Mouchoir wont let her run from the front freely, but i'd fancy her to stay/power up the hill better at the finish.

Yanworth is the solid one, even with jumping issues- if he doesn't make a mess of too many, he and BDA could well pick up the pieces from VVM/PM late on. My main reason for not putting BDA shorter than VVM is that Vroum is tough and more experienced. BDA hasn't been campaigned for this and soft ground could be very important to him.

Anything interesting here?

I would like to know peoples views on the price of vvm and what they think she would be on the day ??
 
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I can see it being close to that. VVM will definitely go short being Ruby's ride and a lot of people on the day will (wrongly) make the connection with Annie Power and think it'll be a repeat this year.

I think PM will drift to at least 8's with both Brain Power and Moon Racer (if he turns up) both being single figures. I actually think Moon Racer and PM could flip flop in the prices you mentioned (again wrongly)

As much as I want to side with Buveur D'Air and see him cruise past these to a 3 length victory I think i've finally sided with Yanworth being the one in this race
 
Ch'Tibello would be my bet at those prices. He was only a length behind Yanworth LTO having led shortly after the last. If the breathing op can bring out a little improvement and Harry Skelton can hold onto him slightly longer, he has a chance in what is an open year. VVM would be a certain lay for me at those prices.
 
Ruby has a decision of either:

Footpad
Wicklow Brave
VVM

Even with a below par VVM i'd be amazed if he's not on her. He doesn't have a hope on either of the other 2 imo even without taking into account VVM's 7lb allowance. They'll run her in this race even if she's not firing hoping she sparks on the day.

Arguable that he even has the option of Footpad as Daryl Jacob trained by the owners.

He will be on VVM and she will shorten but id be surprised if she wins. If Moonracer goes he will be pricewise imo.
 
Vroum Vroum Mag arguably the most overrated horse in training. Has been extremely well placed. Beaten by Apple's Jade who is a pale shadow of last year and fell over the line against a second division mare at Doncaster. Not up to it even if this was the worst Champion Hurdle ever.
 
I've had the same opinion for weeks now that VVM will run here. Where else can she run? Mares, why? you've Limini who should have a favs chance. Mullins/Ricci have gone on record to say that VVM is the better of the two. The stable hasn't got anything else to run in the race.