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Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

Last year I had the theory that Samcro stayed over hurdles because his schooling over fences didn't go well.

It may well be that his physical problems affected his schooling but I'd rather wait until he's jumped a fence in public and back him at a smaller price. I wouldn't back him with stolen money right now.
 
This week's visit to Closutton emphasised that it's far too early to be thinking of specific targets for most of Willie's horses. The quote would be along the lines of 'plan' being a four letter word.

Speaking to others, the thinking is that Klassical Dream will stay over hurdles and that Laurina has a lot to prove to be viewed ahead of Benie Des Dieux. I wouldn't expect much news on promising new French imports or Arkle prospects until October.
 
Looking to get involved on some ante post bets and 2 that interest me are draconien and next destination, both missed last season but were confirmed to go over fences. Draconien is best prices 40s for the arkle and Next Destination 25s for the RSA. Was wondering if anyone had heard about either horses wellbeing for the new season.
 
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Archie I have seen quite a few come out with that theory. Not sure I’d be a subscriber at all, the horse looked the second coming and would have a very good chance in a CH. Elliot wanted a Champion Hurdler I really believe it was that simple.
 
The horse didn't look like the second coming in the second half of his novice season, just very good but not a natural hurdler. In retrospect, all he beat were nascent chasers and inconsistent horses like Sharjah. Keeping him over hurdles has got him used to losing.
 
Hindsight Archie. I wasn’t on the Samcro brigade but he looked very good Archie, perhaps what looked to be an idling win at Cheltenham was all he actually had under the bonnet. But either way that doesn’t change things, at the time Elliot thought he had a champion hurdler which he tested at punchestown and having fallen gave them no answer. That’s why I think the poor schooling theory isn’t probably right..
 
I’d be very surprised knowing how much Gigginstown love a chaser if Samcro hadn’t been tried over fences before the final decision to stay hurdling was made
 
Who is best priced Samcro to win any race? I can't find the market on Oddschecker anywhere.
 
I think Gigginstown’s Novice Chaser will be targeted as follows:

Arkle - Felix Desjy
JLT - Samcro
RSA - Battle Over Doyen

Had Commander of Fleet not sustained an injury I think that would have made the guesswork more complicated. Clearly Commander of Fleet would have gone RSA / 4 Miler.
 
Cheltenham Novice Chase said:
I think Gigginstown’s Novice Chaser will be targeted as follows:

Arkle - Felix Desjy
JLT - Samcro
RSA - Battle Over Doyen

Had Commander of Fleet not sustained an injury I think that would have made the guesswork more complicated. Clearly Commander of Fleet would have gone RSA / 4 Miler.
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Cracking Smart will make a half-decent RSA type imo too
 
I think 16/1 is a very good price to find out if Samcro can jump, because once confirmed, as has been said previously, the price will be gone. I added him last month, and had struck some 'any race' bets on him too, but ultimately I think he is JLT bound, provided he jumps well of course.
 
The King Pimm said:
How long is Commander of the Fleet expected to be out?
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Out for the season (Both him and Defi Bleu) - picked up the injuries at Punchestown when they were pulled up.

Off the Gigginstown lot, even with those 2 injuries to name a few:

Felix Desjy
Samcro
Battleoverdoyen
Dallas des Pictons
Vision D'Honneur
Cracking Smart
Champagne Classic
Dallas des Pictons
Dortmund Park

Still plenty to sort out and i'd definitely be looking at the any race market for most even if i'd go along the same lines (as CNC) if I had to pick. Felix probably the only one you could be sure on for the 2m trip but Mengli Khan was similar and he ended up in the JLT. Unless there's a huge difference in price i.e Battleoverdoyen at 40's for the RSA I'd almost always take the any race option.

I do think the couple of runs, in good company last year for Champagne Classic could be a very good advantage for him if he goes down the 4 mile route again this year (a race he was lined up for until pulled last minute due to a steback)

On Samcro - head vs heart for me at this stage. Heart wants to see him become what the hype suggested 2 years ago. And he deserves to be judged on what he should have been doing all along (chasing up in trip) but head says to wait and see at least until the previews and stable tours start coming out in a month or so if the vibes are strong
 
FaugheenTheMachine said:
I’d be very surprised knowing how much Gigginstown love a chaser if Samcro hadn’t been tried over fences before the final decision to stay hurdling was made
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Whilst thats probable- it doesn’t necessarily point to him having schooled poorly. If he had finished at punchestown only placed or whatever I’d imagine he’d have been chasing last year. The unknown factor was still there and they had every reason to think he was a CH horse with what was a poor year for 2milers and also having had one finish close up the season before
 
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Whether or not Samcro has schooled (badly or well), he is still a horse who hasn't won for 17 months and missed the second half of last season. There is no reason for his price to change until he is on the point of running (October?) so backing him right now doesn't seem logical unless it's a time restricted free bet.
 
But we all know the bookies will cut samcro at the first sign of a positive stable report
 
archie said:
Whether or not Samcro has schooled (badly or well), he is still a horse who hasn't won for 17 months and missed the second half of last season. There is no reason for his price to change until he is on the point of running (October?) so backing him right now doesn't seem logical unless it's a time restricted free bet.
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There were excuses last season, whether believed or not is another thing, but you have your visits etc... as a part owner, would you take excuses/reasons at face value or have reason to disbelieve them?

On another note, he hadn't seen a hurdle before he ended up @ 8's from 16's for the Ballymore, Melon the same for Willie, you know these bookmakers don't give you a second should they get a whiff of anything, and the punter would usually be last to know, as you quite rightly put, there is no reason for his price to change, but we both know that's not how it works.

The one thing we know about Samcro is that he has ability and he's a festival winner. If you can take the excuses/reasons at face value then you are playing the 16's on whether he can jump a fence or not, a bit like we were before he jumped a hurdle. I feel I can name a lot worse horses in value right now than Samcro.
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
There were excuses last season, whether believed or not is another thing, but you have your visits etc... as a part owner, would you take excuses/reasons at face value or have reason to disbelieve them?

On another note, he hadn't seen a hurdle before he ended up @ 8's from 16's for the Ballymore, Melon the same for Willie, you know these bookmakers don't give you a second should they get a whiff of anything, and the punter would usually be last to know, as you quite rightly put, there is no reason for his price to change, but we both know that's not how it works.

The one thing we know about Samcro is that he has ability and he's a festival winner. If you can take the excuses/reasons at face value then you are playing the 16's on whether he can jump a fence or not, a bit like we were before he jumped a hurdle. I feel I can name a lot worse horses in value right now than Samcro.
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The 16s is not just to see if he can jump a fence or not though is it? It'll also be whether he can get there fit and healthy, whether he ends up better than the opposition as for all he may take well to fences. Some may just be better.

Like I said I'd love to see it but personally 16/1 isn't yet enough to tempt me. And I wouldn't be backing if the sole reason is a fear of a price collapse.
 
jono said:
The 16s is not just to see if he can jump a fence or not though is it? It'll also be whether he can get there fit and healthy, whether he ends up better than the opposition as for all he may take well to fences. Some may just be better.

Like I said I'd love to see it but personally 16/1 isn't yet enough to tempt me. And I wouldn't be backing if the sole reason is a fear of a price collapse.
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Well no, not for everyone of course, as has been addressed by archie and others, but for me, you have to believe in a horse to back it as well and I do that with Samcro. For me it's a case of needing to jump a fence, not to necessarily win the race, but for me to believe I got value at 16/1, because I know the ability the horse has.

I don't think fitness should be taken in to account at this stage because that literally goes for backing EVERY NH horse for the festival, if he doesn't make it due to that reason I won't be losing sleep over it because I am still backing him for the reasons I believe are correct.
 
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