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Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

Kevloaf said:
Impressive.

Where did the idea come from to back CPS come from with those?

It's superb when one really shortens up... if Altior didn't run you'd be looking at some ridiculous bets!
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Paisley Park seems the banker of the meeting, so I had to get one with him in there.

Gypsy Island looked very impressive, so I thought I’d take the risk with her.

I like the Delta Work age angle, and with him running this week, I thought he would likely shorten.

I hope to have got A Plus Tard right as a Ryanair horse.

In terms of CPS, I loved his debut, the way Joe Chambers speaks of him was a big hint. He’s also close friends with Kealy, and he was raving about him.

My theory this year is to go down the lines of doubles rather than big multiples and try and take prices of those that will shorten. Last year, the only real success from my multis was Topofthegame and Defi in one with Percy.
 
Kevloaf said:
Any Race - Klassical Dream,Altior,Paisley Park 100/1 (free bet)
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Just on this Kev, I’ve got a feeling that Altior is to win the CC not any race, I was going to put another free bet on it and that stopped me in case his step up in trip means he doesn’t go for the CC
 
Added Battleoverdoyen (any race) @ 27.63/1 before his run today. Can't for one minute believe that was his true running at the festival.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Added Battleoverdoyen (any race) @ 27.63/1 before his run today. Can't for one minute believe that was his true running at the festival.
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Where would you think his most likely target would be? RSA?
 
Backed City Island (14/1) for the Stayers Hurdle
Champ has come out and boosted the form, I love it when connections mention a target for next year straight after a race. Now hopefully he goes and impresses again today
 
Marty973 said:
Where would you think his most likely target would be? RSA?
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Wouldn't like to guess tbh, which is why I went 'any race'.

The RSA is looking a potential hot thing, what with Minella Indo, Champ, BOD, Allaho, COF & Carefully Selected to name but a few.

I'll take the same approach with the Gigginstown lot as I did festival just gone, and that is to back the novices 'any race', hopefully with a bit more success than this year.
 
Glad to use my first cash out. Had 2 points on City Island for the Stayers at 16s pre race, cashed out for 5% loss. Didn’t look to run his race so certainly not writing him off, but no value in backing him in May after that performance
 
Couple of free bets to use today thinking about putting 1 on emitom Stayers hurdle ew at 33/1 and saldier 33/1ew champion hurdle, any thoughts on these 2 for these races?
 
What will be Fusil Raffles target next year? One for the arkle?
 
Nwfb89 said:
Couple of free bets to use today thinking about putting 1 on emitom Stayers hurdle ew at 33/1 and saldier 33/1ew champion hurdle, any thoughts on these 2 for these races?
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I'd say there is loads more appeal backing Saldier than Emitom.

I wouldn't trust Warren Greatrex to get a horse to Cheltenham on top of its game.

He favours pot hunting (as has been highlighted by people close to connections on here) and to be honest, he's just over rated anyway.

Stepped up to 3 miles he got beaten by Champ and although that's not bad form at all, it doesn't make him stand out value at 33/1.




Saldier however, Mullins mentioned this year may come to early as a CH horse but would be one for the season after (i.e. 2020) so a little if I could only back one of those two, it'd be Saldier
 
Ye I remeber Mullins saying that re saldier that's why I had him in mind kev, and after re watching his only race from this season at naas when he fell at the last he was going pretty well at the time hard to know whether he would have beaten espoir dallen or not but would have been a close finish and we all know what he went on to achieve this season so I think I'm going to use my paddy power free bet on saldier can boost it to 35/1 aswell which is a bonus
 
What do people think about Botani as an ante-post punt? She couldn’t have been more impressive in her Killbeggan bumper where she won by 23 lengths. Trained by a little known trainer called Willie Mullins. Normally I would be sceptical of the form of a Killbeggan bumper but she did beat a De Bromhead horse, a Gordon Elliott horse and Joseph O’Brien horse. She wasn’t stopping at the end and is surely one for the Mares Novice Hurdle. Currently she is 14-1 in William Hill’s ‘win any race’ market.
 
Cheltenham Novice Chase said:
What do people think about Botani as an ante-post punt? She couldn’t have been more impressive in her Killbeggan bumper where she won by 23 lengths. Trained by a little known trainer called Willie Mullins. Normally I would be sceptical of the form of a Killbeggan bumper but she did beat a De Bromhead horse, a Gordon Elliott horse and Joseph O’Brien horse. She wasn’t stopping at the end and is surely one for the Mares Novice Hurdle. Currently she is 14-1 in William Hill’s ‘win any race’ market.
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Which horses has he had win that bumper before?

What horses have the others had in that race?

Is any race worth it if the target is fairly obvious?

What did connections say about her?




I've not looked at any of these things yet, or even the race... but at 14/1 I'd start off sceptical and see if I can be won around rather than look to back her at that price.
 
I wouldn't trust Warren Greatrex to get a horse to Cheltenham on top of its game.
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What about Gavin Cromwell and Martin Brassil ? Do we all carry a bit of small trainer bias ?
 
Greatrex seems to be obsessed with aintree for some reason
 
Old Vic said:
What about Gavin Cromwell and Martin Brassil ? Do we all carry a bit of small trainer bias ?
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No I don't think I've fallen in to that category?

The point for Warren Greatrex is that he pot hunts rather than targets the Cheltenham festival at this stage in his career.

His campaigning of La Bague Au Roi has been great, but also backs up the fact I wouldn't put money on him getting a horse to Cheltenham, as he would look elsewhere.
 
Too late for me as Iv'e backed Emitom for the Stayers @ 25-1 already ,.
But holding back on City Island now until the New season / autumn.
Although if the Stayers remains the Target race , probably have a bet on C.I.
 
Kevloaf said:
No I don't think I've fallen in to that category?

The point for Warren Greatrex is that he pot hunts rather than targets the Cheltenham festival at this stage in his career.

His campaigning of La Bague Au Roi has been great, but also backs up the fact I wouldn't put money on him getting a horse to Cheltenham, as he would look elsewhere.
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Fair enough.

Greatex probably wouldnt like to be considered a small trainer anyway.
 
Another good new pod to listen to:

Jumping2Conclusions
https://anchor.fm/ryan-bliss

Only 3 episodes so far. Harry Derham is on each week and it focuses on Ditcheat. Paul Nicholls was on in the latest episode (Will Biddick and Megan Nicholls 2 episodes prior). Really good listen and something a bit different being an insight into the yard, much like his blog.

On the latest pod PN when talking about unraced / bumper horses without prompt goes onto mention once again a good word for Pic D'Orhy as a novice chaser next season.

Seeing him at 100/1 for the CH I got b365 to quote for the Arkle (33/1) and JLT (25/1). Such was his price for the CH I had hoped for 50's so disappointed but makes sense I guess. CH has an established Fav in Espoir D'Allen, a (Willie Mullins...) and a confirmed top novice stepping into it in Klassical Dream to shape the market. Where as the Arkle is way more fluid and yet to form (as shown by Klassical Dream heading the market and Laurina (imo very unlikely to go chasing) close second. So with that in mind such a big price was always unlikely?

They are both also really excited about their bumper horses (the likes of Ask for Glory, McFabulous) going forward this year into novice hurdle campaigns and talk about their change of approach with them. Well worth a listen
 
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