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Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

I’ve had a point each way for the Ballymore.

I’m almost disappointed in myself. A bet on a novice hurdle before the season has even started. Shocking.
 
He was very impressive; either the stable must have thought he wasn’t ready or Emmet Mullins must have thought he had a machine, the pre race flip flop of favourites was a proper punt
As for this lad I’m waiting to see what price Hills make him for the Ballymore, anything half decent and him and Envoi Allen will do for me at this stage
 
FaugheenTheMachine said:
He was very impressive; either the stable must have thought he wasn’t ready or Emmet Mullins must have thought he had a machine, the pre race flip flop of favourites was a proper punt
As for this lad I’m waiting to see what price Hills make him for the Ballymore, anything half decent and him and Envoi Allen will do for me at this stage
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Bearing in mind they’ve had to cut him in their any race market I’ll be very surprised if WH (or any other bookie for that matter) offer bigger price than the 33s on offer with 365. The cash out is key for me if not backing any race when it’s difficult to know at this stage what trip he’ll be aimed at
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
So much for not backing a novice Hurdler before the season starts, 2.5 points win Dlauro 33/1 for the Ballymore with 365. Impressive in winning today as the guys above mention I've revisited last season's One Jump Ahead where he appears as one of the 40 to follow and it's hard not to be take by his previous trainers comments:

"This is a proper horse. He's very exciting and has always pleased us. He is a super jumper; he's one of the nicest horses we've ever had"

So we know he can jump and this from a trainer who has started the careers of Holywell, The World's End and Topofthegame to name but few. He does look like he'll be versatile over a trip so those on 17s any race well played. As I've missed that I'm reverting to my trusted cash out friends at 365 whose 33/1 is some way bigger than the 14s on offer with PP/BFSB. I will also back him with the same firm when they put up a price for the Supreme, hopefully at least 25s. I won't back him for the AB as rarely get properly involved in that race.
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Having missed the bigger any race prices I decided to have a small bet at 33/1 for the Ballymore as well.
 
See 365 put Dlauro in at 20s for the Supreme so will keep my powder dry in that market for the time being, probably have a few freebies with those offering 25s throughout the summer as doubt the price will go anywhere
 
Hey all hope everyone’s doing well, have been very quiet lately due to a complete lack of interest in the flat rats.

Id be mush obliged if someone could add Joseph O’Briens Midnight Run to the William Hill any race market? They have him priced up 20/1 for the spud race but would like to cover the Ballymore too.

I’m not on the Twitter buzz!
 
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Does the performance of BDD change her possible target?
 
The Don said:
Does the performance of BDD change her possible target?
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A great performance but I don't see it changing anything. Obviously a lot of water to go under the bridge, but Klassical Dream would be the obvious Mullins horse for the Champion so I think they'll try and win the mares race again with BDD
 
Is there an opportunity to pile in at 20s with 365 as any inkling she might go there and when they go NRNB it will be a nice cashout like with Apples Jade last year?
 
I cant see any scenario where Benie goes for the Champion Hurdle next season. She's not a 2miler at all and the further the better for her. And she won't go chasing either. Unless they want to try and exploit her mark over fences (147) at some point but even then I cannot see a situation where she lines up in a grade one chase in the Spring. Mares or Stayers only imo and that win makes me think it's far more likely to be the Stayers Hurdle.

Particularly as you have Laurina to add into the mix. Mullins clearly wanted Laurina in the Mares last season but the owners got their wish. That shows they fancy having a good crack with her but I wonder if the eventual outcome means they may just let Willie dictate this season...2mile hurdling is out and No reason why she is ahead of BdD in the stayers pecking order now. Chasing or the Mares then...and I'll still be gobsmacked if as touched on above Mullins lines up any mare over a fence in the Arkle/JLT/RSA whatever the/any owner wants.

I took the 48/1 double (laurina mares / benie stayers) after the race Saturday
 
Salubrious Chin said:
I'd imagine Stayers rather than CH seeing as she breezed through that 3m1f
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Yeah I came on to say the same. I mentioned before that I originally back BDD for the Mares at a boosted 6.5/1 but had a bigger top up at 5.4/1 when I realised you could get that price any race with Hills. At that point my concern was a potential CH tilt (same as FM) similar to Annie Power. However I thought it was not so likely if KD was fit as she'd still be more likely to run in the Mares perhaps alongside Laurina as Mullins has done similar in the past. That performance at the weekend confuses things further though and she is now into just 8/1 for the Stayers.

BDD at 4s for the Mares before the weekend was still one I was keen to put in multis and free bets but not any more especially at her current price. I think with Penhill's fragility and Laurina waiting in the wings Any race is the only play but there ain't much if any value left in the current price in May 2019. It will be interesting to find out what the plan is for Laurina in particular.
 
jono said:
I cant see any scenario where Benie goes for the Champion Hurdle next season. She's not a 2miler at all and the further the better for her. And she won't go chasing either. Unless they want to try and exploit her mark over fences (147) at some point but even then I cannot see a situation where she lines up in a grade one chase in the Spring. Mares or Stayers only imo and that win makes me think it's far more likely to be the Stayers Hurdle.

Particularly as you have Laurina to add into the mix. Mullins clearly wanted Laurina in the Mares last season but the owners got their wish. That shows they fancy having a good crack with her but I wonder if the eventual outcome means they may just let Willie dictate this season...2mile hurdling is out and No reason why she is ahead of BdD in the stayers pecking order now. Chasing or the Mares then...and I'll still be gobsmacked if as touched on above Mullins lines up any mare over a fence in the Arkle/JLT/RSA whatever the/any owner wants.

I took the 48/1 double (laurina mares / benie stayers) after the race Saturday
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Wrote my post before reading yours Jono, will add that double with 365. You can get 62s with Coral but I'll be placing nearly all my multis with 365 especially where the targets are far from certain as in this case.

Update: Having rewatched the CH again there isn't enough in that Laurina performance to get me interested in backing her at this stage even in a multi. Can completely see the logic as if BDD is aimed at the Stayers Laurina would be sure to shorten for the Mares assuming she stays over hurdles. But it's still so early I want to pretty strong on something if getting involved and I ain't there yet with this Mare
 
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Joe Chambers (Riccis Racing manager) mentioned after her win at the weekend that her chase mark is now favourable......
 
As discovered at the Chester preview night, UK handicapper rules mean a chase and hurdle mark has to be within 10lbs of each other so it’s worth looking at Irish handicaps.
 
Added Sam's Profile today , to my A/P selections . @ 33-1 with coral for the R.S.A.
Paid for with my weekend winnings :)
 
I'd freaking love Benie Des Douvan to go over fences.

It'd be against the grain in terms of what we'd expect from "connections" however I think what we expect can't be relied upon, with Ruby's role changing.





I do like the double jono and RC have mentioned but I'll have a bit more of a think about it tomorrow...
 
Are fences a target or are they just throwing options out there ?
Making the switch is only worthwhile if you have a plan, and I’m struggling to see where she would target if fences were her future.
Surely she won’t have the speed for a Champion Chase and questionable whether she’d stay a Gold Cup trip, so would the long term aim be a Ryanair where connections already have Min ?

Sounds like another Vroum Vroum Mag where they don’t know so could enter the horse in every race they allowed to, making her as a punting proposition near impossible...
 
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