Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

[Kevloaf]

Lads aren’t we the same people that lumped on tiger roll last year the second he crossed the line for this year at skinny odds? And the same people who the year before lumped on cause of causes.. I think as long as nobody is having max bets or serious points on horses it’s just a bit of fun. Doesn’t everyone leave a few quid in their accounts after the Martin pipe and wake up Saturday morning and start searching for a few ante post bets

I nearly posted about Tiger Roll earlier today.

Tiger Roll at 7/1
Penhill 9/1

Were both available this time last year, both of which I think are better value than Buveur D'air who didn't win at 8/1 or Altior at 3/1.

My major 'bug bear' is that there is too much excitement about beaten horses (Buveur D'air / Santini) that didn't win when their prices are SIMILAR to horses who had won.


It isn't like I don't get the arguement - Buveur D'air is a two time winner and didn't get to show what he can do... and he'll be 9. It's just the price hasn't got me rushing to back it... I'm not even saying I won't before he next runs... it's just the absolute blind faith when the winner is only 2 pts shorter and looked superb?! (No way it's a weak renewal if he runs)

Altior, again I understand, he wouldn't be 3/1 on the day, closer to 1/3 - but no reason to do anything at all before he next runs. Altior is purely about the amount of money needed to make it worthwhile.

 

[Quevega]

FWIW I think that Espoir D'allen and Paisley Park are both likely to be very short this time next year to follow up, barring accidents.
Both were as impressive a winner in their respective races as I've seen for a while.
Since the fly and Bucks anyway.

 

[Kevloaf]

FWIW I think that Espoir D'allen and Paisley Park are both likely to be very short this time next year to follow up, barring accidents.
Both were as impressive a winner in their respective races as I've seen for a while.
Since the fly and Bucks anyway.

You can add Altior in to that as well...

I might have the trixie.

 

[Quevega]

In fact I've just put them both in some multi's with TOTG - gold cup 10-1 and Altior 3-1.
All pretty much guaranteed targets.

 

[Quevega]

thinking alike - best odds sky for all four (nearly)

 

[Deleted member 4957]

FWIW I think that Espoir D'allen and Paisley Park are both likely to be very short this time next year to follow up, barring accidents.
Both were as impressive a winner in their respective races as I've seen for a while.
Since the fly and Bucks anyway.

I missed the post race debate but did anyone give ED a chance before the race ?
One outing in G1 company and beaten half the straight, his performance last week looked a massive improvement on anything he’s done previously but I guess age plays a part there.

As for next years renewal, I suspect Apples Jade will swerve Cheltenham, Laurina is not a reincarnation of Annie Power and I don’t see many of this years novices reaching that level, you have to suspect that Klassical Dream may target the Stayers.

Buveur D’Air, if fit, is certain to head here, so I would expect the pair to head the market

 

[Outlaw]

I missed the post race debate but did anyone give ED a chance before the race ?
One outing in G1 company and beaten half the straight, his performance last week looked a massive improvement on anything he’s done previously but I guess age plays a part there.

As for next years renewal, I suspect Apples Jade will swerve Cheltenham, Laurina is not a reincarnation of Annie Power and I don’t see many of this years novices reaching that level, you have to suspect that Klassical Dream may target the Stayers.

Buveur D’Air, if fit, is certain to head here, so I would expect the pair to head the market

Whilst Espoir was impressive the trainer stated he loved the ground and when you compare it to the supreme even factoring worse ground it was more visually impressive than knockout on the clock. Klassical on soft looked very good in the supreme i see no reason why Mullins would opt for stayers hurdle over a CH with the current horses at his disposal. Going chasing be the only debate surely vs a CH tilt, would love to see those two head to head next year two young guns potentially lighting up the 2m division.

 

[jono]

FWIW I think that Espoir D'allen and Paisley Park are both likely to be very short this time next year to follow up, barring accidents.
Both were as impressive a winner in their respective races as I've seen for a while.
Since the fly and Bucks anyway.

The one price I wish I had of jumped on after the festival was 5/1 for Paisley Park. Thought he was exceptional. Really hope they keep him over hurdles (which looks likely) and dominate the division for the next few years. Think he was much better than the bear result and a more confident ride (which I think Coleman will do now after breaking his duck at the festival) would have shown that. I get the feeling connections (understandably) weren't quite sure just how good he is but now may well realise they have a incredible talent there. I'm not going to rush into 7/2 now but he's one i'll want firmly onside next season out of anyone.

I won't be getting stuck into anything until / before Aintree though. I will likely look at doubling up and combining a few bets at Aintree and Punchestown to roll into next season though. Have done the same for the King George and Dublin Racing Festival over the last few seasons with fair level of success.

 

[MTR]

Any free bets that come my way will be on paisley park from now till next year! Can see them keeping him over hurdles and nothing standout in that division. Could be there’s for a couple seasons or more.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Fair points Outlaw.
KD was Ballymore bound all winter until the ground came so I assume they feel his future is over further, could be wrong...

 

[Quevega]

Whilst Espoir was impressive the trainer stated he loved the ground and when you compare it to the supreme even factoring worse ground it was more visually impressive than knockout on the clock. Klassical on soft looked very good in the supreme i see no reason why Mullins would opt for stayers hurdle over a CH with the current horses at his disposal. Going chasing be the only debate surely vs a CH tilt, would love to see those two head to head next year two young guns potentially lighting up the 2m division.

https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight/13-March-2019

useful article for anyone not seen it yet.
Just have to be impressed with both Klassical Dream and Espoir D'allen.
I especially like the way ED finished the race off such fast early sectionals, the rest just slowed down.
Laurina looked like she was going faster in the first half mile than she'd ever done, then she settled nicely, but had no finish.
Melon should be marked up as he was up with the pace throughout, and looks destined for a step up in trip in my book.
But the way ED cruised up at the bottom of the hill and skipped away was top drawer.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

A Plus Tard is 16/1 with Billy Hills to Win Any Festival Race, and can be boosted to 17.52/1.

 

[Quevega]

Fair points Outlaw.
KD was Ballymore bound all winter until the ground came so I assume they feel his future is over further, could be wrong...

Willie & Ruby think you need to stay to win a champion hurdle and Willie don't see much difference between 2m and 2m 4f at all. You're also pretty much guaranteed at least Gd to Sft on the tuesday obviously.

 

[jono]

I'd be more for saying we saw some very good winners on the Tuesday that will go onto better things but I do wonder if a slight bit of caution should be taken over the day one results.

Duc de Genievres won the Arkle by 13 lengths.
Espoir D'Allen won the CH by a record winning margin of 15 lengths.
A Plus Tard the Close Brothers by 16 lengths.
Le Breuil and Discorama pulling 47 lengths clear of the 2 remaining finishers in the 4 miler.

A lot of the riders described the ground as dead / tacky on day one and it could just have been only a few horses really thrived on that ground which exaggerated both the distances and the amount the winners had in hand

Now probably all bar the Close Brothers could be argued against that view (with the Arkle falling apart, CH main 3 disappointing, 4 miler inexperience etc) and like I say I think it's more likely KD, ED'A and APT will prove value for their wins but I would be slightly wary of judging the distances and styles of their wins too literally

 

[Outlaw]

https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight/13-March-2019

useful article for anyone not seen it yet.
Just have to be impressed with both Klassical Dream and Espoir D'allen.
I especially like the way ED finished the race off such fast early sectionals, the rest just slowed down.
Laurina looked like she was going faster in the first half mile than she'd ever done, then she settled nicely, but had no finish.
Melon should be marked up as he was up with the pace throughout, and looks destined for a step up in trip in my book.
But the way ED cruised up at the bottom of the hill and skipped away was top drawer.

Yeah read that very interesting all these numbers pieces i find , basically saying Espoir was as efficient as he could of been in the circumstances and everything else that was good enough to compete ran shockers yep. I'm taking nothing away he's just won a Ch by 15L just wished BVD had been able to complete and put a real spin to the race instead of what transpired. I was very taken with Klassical as he was playing up at the start, forced the false start then was keen/lead and still cruised through as he liked then had another gear looked top class to my eyes.

 

[lethalsteps]

Samcro any race already been reduced from 12/1 to 8/1 on William Hill.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Possibly because he is confirmed as chasing next year

 

[Kevloaf]

Samcro any race already been reduced from 12/1 to 8/1 on William Hill.

No juice in 8/1 considering the results he had this season.

I wonder if they'll rule the Arkle out?

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Can’t see any way on earth Klassical Dream goes down the Stayers route, surely Champion Hurdle or Arkle

 

[Kevloaf]

Can’t see any way on earth Klassical Dream goes down the Stayers route, surely Champion Hurdle or Arkle

Who had suggested that FTM?