Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

[Deleted member 4957]

Kev - were you drunk last night ?

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Apart from the odd free bet (won’t be farming through the summer), and the odd double with the golf, don’t plan on getting involved in the Festival antepost until September. That said one that is tempting me now is 13/2 WH price boost on BDD for the Mares.

If she’d stood up and won as easily as it looked surely she’d be closer to a 7/2 chance even this far out (Skybet’s current price). I’m assuming she came out of the race ok and maybe there is a little doubt about the target. On the latter, one thing I got from a Mullins interview earlier in the season is how thankful he is for RR’s investment, which I felt indicated he’d do what he can to give him Festival winners. With a track record of targeting the same horse at this race I’d be pretty confident that this will be the plan again in 2020 hopefully with a better ending. Anyone disagree with this logic?

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Kev - were you drunk last night ?

Must have been:highly_amused:

I'm going to the shops to place a Paisley Park / Buveur D'air / Santini Trixie.

 

[Kevloaf]

I feel like you're both drunk now.

Are these prices going to disappear over the summer?

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I feel like you're both drunk now.

Are these prices going to disappear over the summer?

Buveur D'air's price will be gone after Aintree and I think Santini's might have, if he runs there too.

 

[CJW]

You did make some very valid points kev.

 

[CJW]

Buveur D'air's price will be gone after Aintree and I think Santini's might have, if he runs there too.

SANTINI's price has already been halved, was available at 33/1

 

[CJW]

I'm keen to look ahead to Punchestown, because any winners there prices will crash for the festival next year. Worth mentioning.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

SANTINI's price has already been halved, was available at 33/1

33/1 was absolutely ridiculous though, and that doesn't make 14/1 a bad bet imo

 

[lethalsteps]

Pathetic price I’d want at least double that, Sky seem to be the only firm quoting on the AB so probably better off waiting for some competition the market.

William Hill just posted 20/1, was still hoping for much better.

 

[lethalsteps]

20/1 for Cyrname Gold Cup on 365 is tempting.

 

[charlie]

20/1 for Cyrname Gold Cup on 365 is tempting.

A horse that's never gone over 2m5f with serious questions to answer going left handed is not even remotely temping at 20/1 for me

 

[Kevloaf]

Buveur D'air's price will be gone after Aintree and I think Santini's might have, if he runs there too.

Who he expecting to line up against?

I doubt he'll be beating or meeting any of the Irish horses?


If he wins well at Aintree against the same horses we already know he's better than (bar Verdana Blue) haha ...

I really like Buveur D'air but I don't understand why there is a rush to back him at the price he is

 

[archie]

From my perspective and with the greatest respect, given that we're still less than a week on from the first race of this year's Festival, it's utterly bonkers that we're already on Page 18.
I said it last year but it bears repeating. For any horse you need to calculate a treble of:
1. the odds of it being fit next March. Rule of thumb at this stage, say, even money.
2. the odds of it going for a particular target. A movable and subjective feast but I wouldn't look at anything below even money this far out.
3. the likely odds on the day - finger in the air job but worth doing.
eg. Cyrname.
1. evens
2. Gold Cup - 3/1?
3. 4/1 minimum and likely higher.

Your treble on the smallest odds is 39/1.

 

[billymag]

Get on the RP site lads have a crack at the Lincoln a week Saturday, see if you can find anything to beat blue mist!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Get on the RP site lads have a crack at the Lincoln a week Saturday, see if you can find anything to beat blue mist!

That's more like it Billy.

I like Great Prospector (40/1) at a price myself, should he run.

 

[The King Pimm]

I’m only sticking to horses in the Win Any Race market. I’ve put a point on the big Gigginstown types in the hope they improve over fences (CotF, BOD, Samcro) along with Dickie Diver & Pic D’ory but not going to throw much more until September unless something really stands out.

I have a question regarding the 4 miler at the Festival if anyone can help explain. Why were there very few, if any horses in this year’s race to have experience at any where near the distance. Very few in the field had raced further than 3 mile. Is this the norm for this race? With everything that happened during it I would think stamina experience is a must?

 

[cpfcpatriot]

I'm taking the view that the RSA 1-2 will be the most likely winner of the Gold Cup next season.

The 10/1 TOTG is very fair, as is Santini 14/1. The prep for Santini was horrendous and I think he'd have won over an extra 2f, or with a trouble free prep.

Why can’t Delta Work improve past both? He’s a year younger, and look how the likes of Al Boum Photo improves this season after being a year younger in his novice chase season.

 

[Altior]

A horse that's never gone over 2m5f with serious questions to answer going left handed is not even remotely temping at 20/1 for me

Yeah I'd blindly lay Cyrname at 20/1 now.

 

[Redbridge]

A horse that's never gone over 2m5f with serious questions to answer going left handed is not even remotely temping at 20/1 for me

Never mind its only half the animal going left handed to which I agree with Charlie.