• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

cpfcpatriot said:
Why can’t Delta Work improve past both? He’s a year younger, and look how the likes of Al Boum Photo improves this season after being a year younger in his novice chase season.
Click to expand...

He can but I don't think he will. Santini is sure to relish the extra 2F and I can't see how Delta Work can beat him over that trip. That's without considering TOTG.
 
Kevloaf said:
Who he expecting to line up against?

I doubt he'll be beating or meeting any of the Irish horses?


If he wins well at Aintree against the same horses we already know he's better than (bar Verdana Blue) haha ...

I really like Buveur D'air but I don't understand why there is a rush to back him at the price he is
Click to expand...

I can't see that he'll meet much. Would Apples Jade turn up? Supasundae, Top Notch, If The Cap Fits other possibilities?

They might not be horses he hasn't beaten before but an impressive performance will mean they'll chop his price by a few points
 
archie said:
From my perspective and with the greatest respect, given that we're still less than a week on from the first race of this year's Festival, it's utterly bonkers that we're already on Page 18.
I said it last year but it bears repeating. For any horse you need to calculate a treble of:
1. the odds of it being fit next March. Rule of thumb at this stage, say, even money.
2. the odds of it going for a particular target. A movable and subjective feast but I wouldn't look at anything below even money this far out.
3. the likely odds on the day - finger in the air job but worth doing.
eg. Cyrname.
1. evens
2. Gold Cup - 3/1?
3. 4/1 minimum and likely higher.

Your treble on the smallest odds is 39/1.
Click to expand...

The methodology is very sound there archie, but is this referenced to Santini ?
If so:

Evens - agreed
3/1 unlikely, if he makes Cheltenham he can only be going to the Gold Cup, there isn't another suitable race at the festival, so I'd say he's closer 1/2 to head there
4/1 on the day, very possibly.

So I get 12/1 lol
 
if we repeat the same exercise for Buveur D'Air I'll guess:
Evs
No offers
5/2 (I have a view the 2020 renewal will be weak but just my take.

So I get 5/1
 
If Santini wins the Ladbrokes, the King George and the Cotswold, he still wouldn't start at 4/1.
 
BDA will start a minimum 5/1. Even making a double of evens and 5/1 makes him 11/1.
 
charlie said:
A horse that's never gone over 2m5f with serious questions to answer going left handed is not even remotely temping at 20/1 for me
Click to expand...

At his open day PN was asked about Cyrname and the instant reply with no thought was "He'll be trained for the King George and the Gold Cup" so you'd have to think they think he's going to stay.
 
archie said:
If Santini wins the Ladbrokes, the King George and the Cotswold, he still wouldn't start at 4/1.
Click to expand...

He'll run in the Ladbrokes and the Cotswold or Denman.

If he won the King George it'd be beyond belief and he would definitely be shorter than 4/1 but that ain't happening.
 
archie said:
I very much doubt it but even if he was, he'll be the same price until November. Why tie up your money for half a year?
Click to expand...

Because I disagree on what price he'll be in the champion hurdle and see the 8/1 on offer as value.
 
Don Cossack said:
At his open day PN was asked about Cyrname and the instant reply with no thought was "He'll be trained for the King George and the Gold Cup" so you'd have to think they think he's going to stay.
Click to expand...

Hence why I found it intriguing. Cyrname is 5/1 to win the King George. If he gets anywhere near winning that race his GC odds will surely be less than 10/1.
 
BDA price will move two if not three times between now and Christmas

1) how he does at Aintree or Sandown
2) When Klassical Dreams intentions are announced
3) If he wins his seasonal debut

Also a possible 4th if something negative happens to Espoir D’allen (fingers crossed this doesn’t come into it)
 
lethalsteps said:
Hence why I found it intriguing. Cyrname is 5/1 to win the King George. If he gets anywhere near winning that race his GC odds will surely be less than 10/1.
Click to expand...

There were just 4 horses at less than 10/1 when the tape went up for the Gold Cup this year. We've already had Santini, Lostintranslation and Topofthegame spun. Al Boum Photo, Native River, Kemboy and others will surely be back.

Recency bias is very, very dangerous.
 
Lads aren’t we the same people that lumped on tiger roll last year the second he crossed the line for this year at skinny odds? And the same people who the year before lumped on cause of causes.. I think as long as nobody is having max bets or serious points on horses it’s just a bit of fun. Doesn’t everyone leave a few quid in their accounts after the Martin pipe and wake up Saturday morning and start searching for a few ante post bets
 
archie said:
Your money. Best of luck.

A 2/1 winning bet is better value than a 10/1 losing bet.
Click to expand...

Not strictly true imo. A 10/1 losing bet can also be a better bet than a 2/1 winning bet.
 
Ive had 5 on Carefully Selected anyrace at 20/1 in case it goes the 4 miler and is a big price, also had 5 on Fly Smart for Supreme as someone on here mentioned it. When i look into Fly Smart it says its still in France so i assume it hasnt even been bought but an owner over here.
 
Willypigeon said:
Ive had 5 on Carefully Selected anyrace at 20/1 in case it goes the 4 miler and is a big price, also had 5 on Fly Smart for Supreme as someone on here mentioned it. When i look into Fly Smart it says its still in France so i assume it hasnt even been bought but an owner over here.
Click to expand...

Apparently FLY SMART has been brought by Rich Ricci, according to @mufc_fan_saf along with another horse called FEU DU BRESIL

Anymore details would be good on this one.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom