Asked what it would take to*overturn the eight-length deficit come Cheltenham, Elliott said: "A miracle," repeating himself after a short pregnant pause.
-
HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!
Champion Hurdle 2019
- Thread starter Native River
- Start date
Asked what it would take to*overturn the eight-length deficit come Cheltenham, Elliott said: "A miracle," repeating himself after a short pregnant pause.
KingSprinterSacre
Fat Jockey Patron
- Joined
- Feb 5, 2014
- Messages
- 1,210
- Reaction score
- 68
- Points
- 48
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Not much mention of Summerville Boy, but if some are saying Samcro should go chasing or change trip then so should Summerville Boy, he couldn't even finish ahead of Vision Des Flos! He can't and won't improve 22 lengths by the time the Champion Hurdle comes around, because that is what he has to find based on that today.
My overall feeling about both him and Samcro are that they will be better for a pacier race which they will get come the festival.
My overall feeling about both him and Samcro are that they will be better for a pacier race which they will get come the festival.
doctorwu
Previous Lurker
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2016
- Messages
- 1,946
- Reaction score
- 168
- Points
- 0
Maybe he won't beat BD. I expect Melon to be stronger this season, and they've finally worked out how to ride him. That said, I'm not hanging my hat on him. If I see something I fancy to give BD a race I'll back him accordingly. If not, happy to sit it out.
How did your over bet fry-up American get on today
Maybe he won't beat BD. I expect Melon to be stronger this season, and they've finally worked out how to ride him. That said, I'm not hanging my hat on him. If I see something I fancy to give BD a race I'll back him accordingly. If not, happy to sit it out.
How did your over bet fry-up American get on today
As well as yours on Thomas Patrick :highly_amused:
Surprised you'd sit a race out, from previous posts you seem to lay ones at double figure odds (effectively laying at 1/14 etc) and make your money that way? Summerville Boy must be a contender for you to lay after today? Or Samcro?
charlie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
I now respect BD,
But for some reason
A dual champion hurdle winner you now respect :sleeping:
doctorwu
Previous Lurker
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2016
- Messages
- 1,946
- Reaction score
- 168
- Points
- 0
SB would be a contender indeed. I'll be looking for a few over-hyped (fry) types nearer the time.
As for TP, not a great run, at least he was in the race, unlike yours who was running in a different race:highly_amused:
I took a bit of him on the exchange which covered my TP bet.
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Imagine ATR will get a quick word with them at Fairyhouse today.
I still harbour slim hopes that they over rule the decision and he goes for chases (ideally staying trips). The vast majority of horses (Irish especially) haven't even had a run yet so although it wouldn't be ideal, I don't buy the idea that it would be too late for a switch to chasing.
I would say that if the season plays out without a CH win for Samcro which looks incredibly likely, it'll be very interesting to hear the vibes about the horse during the summer. I remember archie raised the point of whether he may well of schooled poorly over fences which forced them down this route. I was fairly dismissive of this view (my view was that Elliott had enough in the chasing ranks and would need Samcro for the 2 mile hurdling division in Ireland which are worth to get the trainers title) but I am starting to come around to this idea.
Quevega
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) Self-proclaimed
- Joined
- Feb 19, 2018
- Messages
- 21,154
- Reaction score
- 5,756
- Points
- 83
FaugheenTheMachine
Previous Lurker
- Joined
- Jan 30, 2018
- Messages
- 1,571
- Reaction score
- 15
- Points
- 0
Samcro jumped the best he ever has imho yesterday, BDA was the size of a house, went straight through the last and still absolutely destroyed him. Whilst the slow gallop won’t have suited Samcro I just can’t see any way he turns the form round
charlie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
Faugheen_Machine
Legendary Fat Jockey, Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Mod
- Joined
- Sep 29, 2014
- Messages
- 10,969
- Reaction score
- 1,342
- Points
- 83
Me neither FTM. That was Buveur D'air's best performance in my eyes and if he has improvement to come he'll be almost unbeatable in March.
I wonder what Official Rating he will get, Higher than 169 for sure....
Faugheen's highest OR was 174 in the Morgiana and the Irish Champion Hurdle (Highest in UK a 171 in the Christmas Hurdle), whilst Hurricane Fly Achieved 175 a couple of times also in Ireland, 173 at Cheltenham.
Yesterday is going to be rated the best 2 mile hurdle performance we've seen in years. (Rightly so).
Still Melon 8/1 and Laurina 5/1 to come out, both without a run this season... no logic to Melon reversing the form at this stage and an almighty leap needed by Laurina, and she's not a certain target for the race.
Best price 12s for Samcro, may well go off 4/1 2nd fav on the day still!
Quevega
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) Self-proclaimed
- Joined
- Feb 19, 2018
- Messages
- 21,154
- Reaction score
- 5,756
- Points
- 83
Kinda agree with that, but whilst visually brilliant, he did beat second season novices who may well turn out to be not as good as many imagined, So the Handicapper may or ought to treat it with a bit of caution. But he at least deserves to be a 170 horse.
Daft as it sounds because Melon is probably rated too high based on his second place to BD, if he'd done that to Melon yesterday (and I think he would have) then he'd have to go up to mid 170's.
Even though it now looks obvious to me (barring factoring in a liking for the track and conditions of the race regarding Melon, bit like MTOY) that BD was not at his very best in March.
Samcro may not even run. Less than Even money for a place antepost 4 months ahead, risky business.
Wouldn't be suprised at all if oleary sent him to the stayers.
Last edited:
billymag
Member
- Joined
- Aug 31, 2016
- Messages
- 1,574
- Reaction score
- 121
- Points
- 63
Ive always been worried about Samcros jumping to be fair that really wasnt an issue, in fact he jumped better than the winner. BD could of even run to a PB yesterday and if he wasnt fit then it really does look to be a certainty if he gets to Chelt injury free.
The race certainly wasnt run to suit Samcro and he will improve for Chelt with different tactics, and I wonder if they will run a pacemaker for him, if they have one good enough to do the job properly. I havent given up on him but its hard to see him getting the better of BD if BD improves as expected.
The race certainly wasnt run to suit Samcro and he will improve for Chelt with different tactics, and I wonder if they will run a pacemaker for him, if they have one good enough to do the job properly. I havent given up on him but its hard to see him getting the better of BD if BD improves as expected.
Big Chac
Member
- Joined
- Oct 21, 2018
- Messages
- 491
- Reaction score
- 42
- Points
- 28
I dont really understand the argument of a pacemaker improving samcro come cheltenham. He doesn't have a turn of foot so surely he has to make it a stamina test and do a faugheen which means he will probably get beat again.
If they do employ a pacemaker then samcro will get done for a turn of foot anyway..........surely he has to go from the front and wind it up gradually as he tried yesterday.
If they do employ a pacemaker then samcro will get done for a turn of foot anyway..........surely he has to go from the front and wind it up gradually as he tried yesterday.
billymag
Member
- Joined
- Aug 31, 2016
- Messages
- 1,574
- Reaction score
- 121
- Points
- 63
Wouldnt it help if he didnt have to do all the donkey work. McCain tried a similar thing to get Hurricane Fly beat with Overturn setting the pace for Peddlers Cross, on that occasion it was felt that Overturn hadnt gone hard enough and H Fly was able to still use his speed at the end without emptying his stamina (emptying might be overstating it a little).
The year after Overturn did an amazing job of setting a relentless gallop but only managed to set it up for Rock on Ruby, who had tracked the leaders and won. H Fly was held up and off the strong pace wasnt able to make an impression on the front two. I think a similar tactic would need to be employed for Samcro to have any chance. H FLY didnt lose too many but the two races in his career which he recorded his highest TS he didnt finish in the first two. I wonder if this might be a way they can try and get BD beat, but really its clutching at straws, BD seems to have such a strong cruising speed and turn of foot that baring the hurdles it looks like places for the rest.
The year after Overturn did an amazing job of setting a relentless gallop but only managed to set it up for Rock on Ruby, who had tracked the leaders and won. H Fly was held up and off the strong pace wasnt able to make an impression on the front two. I think a similar tactic would need to be employed for Samcro to have any chance. H FLY didnt lose too many but the two races in his career which he recorded his highest TS he didnt finish in the first two. I wonder if this might be a way they can try and get BD beat, but really its clutching at straws, BD seems to have such a strong cruising speed and turn of foot that baring the hurdles it looks like places for the rest.
A pacemaker makes it a stamina test. Samcro isn't a front runner and they could get taken on for the lead. He would be a sitting duck.