Champion Hurdle 2019

[billymag]

Just looking back at the Irish Field archive figures Simon Rowlands gave Sommerville Boy 154 and said that he was solid but not a spectacular winner of the race (I except the points above about his jumping).

Simon gives Samcro 161 "That pushes Samcro up to 161, which is comfortably top of the novice hurdlers (from the runner up here Black OP) and within touching distance of a champion hurdle winning figure. Samcro was particularly fast from 3 out to the last - that was no optical illusion for sure - he would of won by further but for idling on the run in"

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Is there an argument to say that it was a below average Supreme, and the fact that Summerville Boy won it should actually be proof of that. To jump that poorly and still win may be a sign of just how average the race was.... Kalashnikov's form I've already questioned, Mengli Khan was 3rd and didn't win after December last. Paloma Blue had no win since Dec either and was 4th. Claimintakinrubbish was 5th and also got beaten next time out (last won in Dec).

I feel its perfectly reasonable to take a look at the Supreme and say it was not a good renewal, even at this early stage.

the fact Kalashnikov and Paloma Blue et al may go on to be good chasers, and Arkle contenders, doesn't mean it was a strong Supreme either IMO.

It is pure lack of potential/known opposition combined with the anticipated 'improvement over fences' that have the Supreme 2nd, 3rd and 4th as Arkle contenders in my mind so far.

Spot on Kev.

Not convinced myself either. Ballymore was a level above IMO.

 

[archie]

I wouldn't be relying on form from the last Festival unless it came up heavy again the next time. It's not their fault but most of last season's novices only have hurdles form on soft or worse.

 

[Kevloaf]

I have a few things to say on this:

1) i think the Ballymore was a better race of the two.

2) I think the entire crop of novice hurdlers last year was far better than anything since the year of Altior/Buveur Dair/Min

3) Whist I think it was a decent supreme, I think the front three/four will prove to be far better than the rest.

4) Kalashnikov (novice chasing) and Summerville Boy (Champion Hurdle) will prove top 3 in their divisions this year.

5) Mengli Khan will be a decent yardstick for the Arkle if he goes that way. Paloma Blue the same.

6) The Ballymore, whilst a better race at the top end (Samcro), will have far more depth down the field and more winners.

Which points are you agreeing with me and which are you disagreeing?

1 and 6, yeah.

5 - yeah, I don't think it's an exciting bunch of 2m novice chasers though.

2 - not for me, the year with Neon Wolf/ FO was my fave

3 - I've made my car for why I don't think it was a decent Supreme .... what are your reasons?

4 - Way too bold a statement without anything to back it up. Kalashnikov maybe due to lack of novice chasers in the UK but Summerville Boy might have to be facing BVD and Samcro and as I've said, I don't think he's proved to be stand out yet

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Which points are you agreeing with me and which are you disagreeing?

1 and 6, yeah.

5 - yeah, I don't think it's an exciting bunch of 2m novice chasers though.

2 - not for me, the year with Neon Wolf/ FO was my fave

3 - I've made my car for why I don't think it was a decent Supreme .... what are your reasons?

4 - Way too bold a statement without anything to back it up. Kalashnikov maybe due to lack of novice chasers in the UK but Summerville Boy might have to be facing BVD and Samcro and as I've said, I don't think he's proved to be stand out yet

I agreed with some of your post but not all of it.

It’s hard to tell but I reckon the crop will prove to be as good as Neon Wolfs/Willoughby Court/Finians Oscars year.

Perhaps decent was the wrong word for the supreme. ‘Ok’ would be a better description. It was an ok supreme. Not great. But certainly not as bad as some are making out.

I think Kalashnikov will be a top 3 novice in whichever race of the Arkle or JLT he goes in. He was a top 3 Hurdle over 2m and looks to be a Chaser in the making anyway. Summerville Boy won’t have too many to beat in the CH. it’s likely to be Buveur Dair, Samcro, ITCF and Melon at the absolute most. He could feasibly be a top 3 candidate against them with Samcro uncertain to even run.

 

[Old Vic]

Perhaps decent was the wrong word for the supreme. ‘Ok’ would be a better description. It was an ok supreme. Not great. But certainly not as bad as some are making out.

Thats how I would see it too. The first two are probably decent but not from fashionable yards.

 

[Istabraq]

I've held the view that the 2018 Supreme was a decent renewal, the curve ball that did us all was the ground and maybe this is why some hold a negative view of the race ?
It's fair to say that very little has come from the race to date but a gruelling deep ground race can bottom out the best of them and I expect many to come back bigger and better this season, that said the race had Sharjah 10l back in mid division and he won the Galway handicap off 146 by 3l and is now rated 154 (Irish rating).
Many may have forgotten that Lostintranslation was a well beaten 7th in the race and then went on to running Black Op to half a length at Aintree, who had previously got close to the second coming that is Samcro, food for thought ?

Menglai Khan and Paloma Blue will go onto better things, Claimantakinforgan is a horse who I don;t think we've seen the best of yet and many of you will know that Western Ryder is a solid yardstick who is well thought of by connections.

We'll know alot more in 6 months but until they all and end up in 0-120 handicaps at Catterick and Clonmel I'll be hopeful they prove to be a decent crop....

 

[Middle_Of_March]

I've held the view that the 2018 Supreme was a decent renewal, the curve ball that did us all was the ground and maybe this is why some hold a negative view of the race ?
It's fair to say that very little has come from the race to date but a gruelling deep ground race can bottom out the best of them and I expect many to come back bigger and better this season, that said the race had Sharjah 10l back in mid division and he won the Galway handicap off 146 by 3l and is now rated 154 (Irish rating).
Many may have forgotten that Lostintranslation was a well beaten 7th in the race and then went on to running Black Op to half a length at Aintree, who had previously got close to the second coming that is Samcro, food for thought ?

Menglai Khan and Paloma Blue will go onto better things, Claimantakinforgan is a horse who I don;t think we've seen the best of yet and many of you will know that Western Ryder is a solid yardstick who is well thought of by connections.

We'll know alot more in 6 months but until they all and end up in 0-120 handicaps at Catterick and Clonmel I'll be hopeful they prove to be a decent crop....

Good post.

As everyday passes since the race, more and more people are saying it’s a poor renewal. I think that’s well OTT. At the very worst, it’s an OK race.

Kalashnikov and Summerville Boy are both decent horses. As Old Vic said, if they come from more fashionable yards, perhaps the public opinion of them would be higher.

 

[jono]

Everytime I come to look at the Supreme again and try form an opinion I come unstuck, primarily due to the ground clouding my judgement.

I can't help knock a lot of the horses in behind Summerville Boy for the fact he won even with his mistakes. he could be a freak or a superstar but I can't have it - I fully except young novices can improve rapidly as the season goes on but the fact he failed to win any of his 3 starts over hurdles throws huge doubts in it for me.

So the fact Kalashnikov came second to him still, and was also beaten by the same horse in the Tolworth...it puts a doubt in my head in regards to Kalashnikov and how good he could be, despite being a big fan of the horse. My hope will be that once/if we get a good stretch of good ground we'll see the very best of the horse (even his betfair hurdle win, he didn't look comfortable on it) And if that had of been the case - we may well have seen him turn the tables?

I'd love to have seen the race on good to soft ground as I feel like we may have a got more horses run their true race, therefore a more solid opinion (at least for myself) could be made.

Trying to rate the it against previous Supremes... (obviously hindsight will create a bias however much I try and not factor that in but i've tried to think back my views after the race/start of the next season)

Exceptional
2016 - Altior, Min, Buveur D'Air
2011 - Al Ferof, Spirt Son, Sprinter Sacre (Cue Card)

Very Good
2013 - Champagne Fever, MTOY's, Jezki
2014 - Vautour, Josses Hill, Vaniteux (at the time I thought this, Vautour looked exceptional and Josses Hill I thought would be a monster over fences)

Good/Decent
2015 - Douvan, Shaneshill, Sizing John
==> 2018 - Summerville Boy... <==

Poor
2017 - Labaik, Melon, River Wylde (slightly harsh maybe without seeing the winner again i'll admit)

I'd have it on par with the 2015 renewal which Douvan (winner aside) won as decent / good. (I have to ignore what Sizing John went on to do in the Gold Cup and a new trainer in this)

Doesn't mean much comparing them but that's kind of where I am basing it on right now. I can't see a superstar coming out of the race but I do think Kalashnikov could be very good and i'd expect 3-4 of the runners to feature at the head of some of the novice races when they line up in March next season or feature heavily in some of the major handicap hurdles.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Everytime I come to look at the Supreme again and try form an opinion I come unstuck, primarily due to the ground clouding my judgement.

I can't help knock a lot of the horses in behind Summerville Boy for the fact he won even with his mistakes. he could be a freak or a superstar but I can't have it - I fully except young novices can improve rapidly as the season goes on but the fact he failed to win any of his 3 starts over hurdles throws huge doubts in it for me.

So the fact Kalashnikov came second to him still, and was also beaten by the same horse in the Tolworth...it puts a doubt in my head in regards to Kalashnikov and how good he could be, despite being a big fan of the horse. My hope will be that once/if we get a good stretch of good ground we'll see the very best of the horse (even his betfair hurdle win, he didn't look comfortable on it) And if that had of been the case - we may well have seen him turn the tables?

I'd love to have seen the race on good to soft ground as I feel like we may have a got more horses run their true race, therefore a more solid opinion (at least for myself) could be made.

Trying to rate the it against previous Supremes... (obviously hindsight will create a bias however much I try and not factor that in but i've tried to think back my views after the race/start of the next season)

Exceptional
2016 - Altior, Min, Buveur D'Air
2011 - Al Ferof, Spirt Son, Sprinter Sacre (Cue Card)

Very Good
2013 - Champagne Fever, MTOY's, Jezki
2014 - Vautour, Josses Hill, Vaniteux (at the time I thought this, Vautour looked exceptional and Josses Hill I thought would be a monster over fences)

Good/Decent
2015 - Douvan, Shaneshill, Sizing John
==> 2018 - Summerville Boy... <==

Poor
2017 - Labaik, Melon, River Wylde (slightly harsh maybe without seeing the winner again i'll admit)

I'd have it on par with the 2015 renewal which Douvan (winner aside) won as decent / good. (I have to ignore what Sizing John went on to do in the Gold Cup and a new trainer in this)

Doesn't mean much comparing them but that's kind of where I am basing it on right now. I can't see a superstar coming out of the race but I do think Kalashnikov could be very good and i'd expect 3-4 of the runners to feature at the head of some of the novice races when they line up in March next season or feature heavily in some of the major handicap hurdles.

Exceptional
2016 - Altior, Min, Buveur D'Air
2011 - Al Ferof, Spirt Son, Sprinter Sacre (Cue Card)

Very Good
2013 - Champagne Fever, MTOY's, Jezki
2014 - Vautour, Josses Hill, Vaniteux (at the time I thought this, Vautour looked exceptional and Josses Hill I thought would be a monster over fences)

Good/Decent
2015 - Douvan, Shaneshill, Sizing John
==> 2018 - Summerville Boy... <==

Poor
2017 - Labaik, Melon, River Wylde (slightly harsh maybe without seeing the winner again i'll admit)

I'd have it on par with the 2015 renewal which Douvan (winner aside) won as decent / good. (I have to ignore what Sizing John went on to do in the Gold Cup and a new trainer in this)

It’s interesting to compare the renewals but I’d have the 2015 and 2013 races the other way round. Asides from that, I make you spot on. The 2017 renewal really was terrible.

And the Altior, Min, Buveur Dair race is just an incredible piece of form.

 

[Folski]

What would worry me about last seasons Supreme is that the horses are all pretty close together, 5L back to 5th and 12L back to 9th.

Experienced horses and older horses tend to out run their odds in the Supreme but they are usually not the horse to take out of the race. Usually there is a star 5 year old who didn't know his job, wasn't as developed physically and lacked experienced and they become the stars. The classic example is Jezki who was well held in the Supreme but came back to win the Champion in a then course record time the year after.

Altior looks an exception to the rule but not many horses win a Supreme by 7L so maybe we should take note when we see emphatic winners a la Douvan & Vautour. Sizing John & Buveur D'air both finished held 3rds in Supremes and went on to win a Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle respectively, as 5 year olds.

Last years though reminds me of the Cinders & Ashes Supreme, a lot of horses well bunched, Go Native's Supreme was similar. I'm not sure there is a star in there.

 

[jack1092]

You took the words out of my mouth Kev. I think had Summerville Boy jumped & ran as well as he coud have the winning distance of the Supreme would have been different gravy!

Yep, if you look at the interference he suffered to at the hands of wayward Getabird he was shuffled back a fair bit.

Whilst i'd also semi question the race itself, he has won that whilst have a very messy race.

Jumping and interference. Even if you took the interference out of it, he'd have lengths in hand.

However, if you look back through his form, so far, it has tended to be best when soft or heavy....That might challenge him if we have a normal year at Cheltenham with good ground. Not saying he doesn't handle it but over 2m perhaps the ground has helped him? Quotes have suggested he'll stay further no problem, so he really is an intriguing horse to watch this year.

 

[Scooby91]

I personally think the 2m novices were a very poor bunch last year, can't see anything getting near buveur dair/ samcro if either or both, make it there. I personally think we have a dream would / will beat summerville boy this season, however he's still short of the required level.

 

[jono]

Maybe it's not relevant but can anyone think of a novice hurdler who failed to win their first 3 starts over hurdles (or even first 2) and who then still went onto become or compete at Champion Hurdle level? I really can't...

It's that that stops me rating Summerville Boy too highly and expecting him to lay a glove on the division this season. I'm of the view the ground played a big factor in taking the horse up to another level to win the Tolworth and more so the Supreme rather than he just found the necassary improvmenet through experience/time/runs etc.

I would be slightly more leniant on a novice hurdler who had that kind of record and went chasing as it's a different discipline but it really stops me being confident on his chances this season in open company over 2 miles. Personally if he was a future CH horse then we would have seen that in his first 3 runs last season imo (even taking into account the trainers often slow start with his horses)

 

[Old Vic]

^Sublimity ?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

^Sublimity ?

Won his first start over hurdles, then failed to win in the Supreme, same as current champion Buveur D'air.

 

[billymag]

Rock on Ruby won his first then failed to win three after although he came up against some very smart animals.

 

[Kevloaf]

What would worry me about last seasons Supreme is that the horses are all pretty close together, 5L back to 5th and 12L back to 9th.

Experienced horses and older horses tend to out run their odds in the Supreme but they are usually not the horse to take out of the race. Usually there is a star 5 year old who didn't know his job, wasn't as developed physically and lacked experienced and they become the stars. The classic example is Jezki who was well held in the Supreme but came back to win the Champion in a then course record time the year after.

Altior looks an exception to the rule but not many horses win a Supreme by 7L so maybe we should take note when we see emphatic winners a la Douvan & Vautour. Sizing John & Buveur D'air both finished held 3rds in Supremes and went on to win a Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle respectively, as 5 year olds.

Last years though reminds me of the Cinders & Ashes Supreme, a lot of horses well bunched, Go Native's Supreme was similar. I'm not sure there is a star in there.

An interesting few points, like a lot of what you've said there.

The general consensus seems to be it was an okay year at best, so it'll be really interesting to see how it plays out.

I am not ruling out Summerville Boy / Kalashnikov going on to be very good horses, but I am certainly more wary of them that I would be other years with the 1-2 in a Supreme.

The example regarding Cinders and Ashes being a casing point - I have a huge soft spot as he was my first bet on course at myu first visit to Cheltenham, and I over estimated him for quite some time afterwards

 

[ComplyOrDie]

If Betfair (links with the Elliott yard) are anything to go by then it looks like we have our decision regarding Samcro.

They have pushed him out in EVERY chase market, 10's JLT, 12's Arkle & 20'S RSA, and have today cut him for the CH to 7/2!

I think we had this sort of move for the horse around this time prior to his first run last season I believe.

Maybe the 7's with Bet365 are worth jumping on now?

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

If Betfair (links with the Elliott yard) are anything to go by then it looks like we have our decision regarding Samcro.

They have pushed him out in EVERY chase market, 10's JLT, 12's Arkle & 20'S RSA, and have today cut him for the CH to 7/2!

I think we had this sort of move for the horse around this time prior to his first run last season I believe.

Maybe the 7's with Bet365 are worth jumping on now?

It's a brave move if they don't have the info. I'm taking the 7/1. Cheers CoD