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Lay of the festival

If I was going to lay anything at the moment it'd be
LET'S DANCE in the Mares.
Fox Norton wherever he went. One of the most over rated horses around yet again.

Sam Spinner perhaps at his price.
 
At current prices I'd take on Footpad, Getabird and all those that ran in last season's gold cup (excluding SJ)
 
Not really a layer but if I was pushed I’d lay Getabird

Too short for me in a race where another Labaik could spring up from
Nowhere
 
Sam Spinner - Stayers. All his form on soft going and never ran at Cheltz before.
 
Getabird for me too, if the going is it’s usual good to soft/good I’d imagine he’d want further than 2m
 
SeanRock said:
Getabird for me too, if the going is it’s usual good to soft/good I’d imagine he’d want further than 2m
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I've said it before, I read an article last year that only 2 horses had a higher timeform rating on bumper debut than Getabird.

Those two were Faugheen and Annie Power, both Champion hurdler winners.

He hasn't won on good ground or left handed. - Both incorrect, he won his P2P left handed and his bumper on Good to Yielding.

Factor in he has the most successful trainer in the races history. Who is 11122 in the last 5 years. He even won it with a 40/1 shot.

His Jockey is the most successful jockey in the history of the race. He's won it on 10/1 Al Ferof beating Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card all better horses than Al Ferof. He won it on Champagne Fever beating a perennial Champion Hurdler runner up and a Champion Hurdler. Put him on the best horse in the race and its devastating see Vautour/Douvan.

Of the market principals who has he to worry about?

Samcro goes Ballymore.
ITCF has beaten nothing of any substance. That Aintree bumper form not looking to hot.
Kalashnikov probably hes biggest rival in the race. Betfair hurdle horses have horrible record in this race.
 
jonthehammer said:
Not really a layer but if I was pushed I’d lay Getabird

Too short for me in a race where another Labaik could spring up from
Nowhere
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Labaik was undefeated when actually starting, not your typical 50/1.
 
Hurricane fly said:
Labaik was undefeated when actually starting, not your typical 50/1.
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Should have been called a refuse to race at Naas (finally started 100yds behind) and banned for Cheltenham.
 
Min is another I'll be laying on the day, provided Altior turns up.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Min is another I'll be laying on the day, provided Altior turns up.
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Love that. I think people will see Min as 'value against the fav ' and they'll get way too close together in the betting.

I wouldn't lay Min at 3/1 because I wouldn't like to pay to be wrong but at 15/8 I'd get tempted
 
archie said:
Should have been called a refuse to race at Naas (finally started 100yds behind) and banned for Cheltenham.
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still makes me very very bitter that
 
robith said:
still makes me very very bitter that
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That and one of the owners being a gangster (which seems to have astonished the other connections - yeah, right).
 
Dodgy to go against any of WM's horses at the fez but i'll nominate two of his..

Footpad & Min.
I believe that PM will turn the form around. O'leary was quietly chuffed about his last run and i'm sure Davy Russell was too. I can't find the report now in which O'leary said that they were never going to be hard on him in the irish arkle, basically that race was nothing more than a prep for the fez. For me St Calvados is the best jumper in the race and he'll probably take footpad on upfront. Footpads too short imo.

& Min. One word.. ALTIOR
 
donka said:
Dodgy to go against any of WM's horses at the fez but i'll nominate two of his..

Footpad & Min.
I believe that PM will turn the form around. O'leary was quietly chuffed about his last run and i'm sure Davy Russell was too. I can't find the report now in which O'leary said that they were never going to be hard on him in the irish arkle, basically that race was nothing more than a prep for the fez. For me St Calvados is the best jumper in the race and he'll probably take footpad on upfront. Footpads too short imo.

& Min. One word.. ALTIOR
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Footpad doesn't need to lead. PM was never going to lead last time as they never intended to get into a battle and leave his race at Leopardstown. PM and SC will go off in front and potentially set it up for FP. PM has one way of winning and that's out in front. Taking each other on could end in disaster and it will be a Munir 1 2 I reckon.
 
Folski said:
I've said it before, I read an article last year that only 2 horses had a higher timeform rating on bumper debut than Getabird.

Those two were Faugheen and Annie Power, both Champion hurdler winners.

He hasn't won on good ground or left handed. - Both incorrect, he won his P2P left handed and his bumper on Good to Yielding.

Factor in he has the most successful trainer in the races history. Who is 11122 in the last 5 years. He even won it with a 40/1 shot.

His Jockey is the most successful jockey in the history of the race. He's won it on 10/1 Al Ferof beating Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card all better horses than Al Ferof. He won it on Champagne Fever beating a perennial Champion Hurdler runner up and a Champion Hurdler. Put him on the best horse in the race and its devastating see Vautour/Douvan.

Of the market principals who has he to worry about?

Samcro goes Ballymore.
ITCF has beaten nothing of any substance. That Aintree bumper form not looking to hot.
Kalashnikov probably hes biggest rival in the race. Betfair hurdle horses have horrible record in this race.
Click to expand...

Personally I think if Samcro wasn’t around Getabird would be going for the Ballymore that and Sharajh’s poor run at Leopardstown means he’ll more than likely go the Supreme route now. His run last time out was visually impressive but conditions suited imo, he was in receipt of 6lbs off Mengli Khan and his front running display in soft ground was always going to make it a stamina test rather than speed. His bumper performances were good but did he actually beat anything of real note.

I’m willing to take him on with If The Cap Fit’s. I think he’s been trained with the Supreme in mind all season and has beaten what was put in front of him convincingly. I would have liked to see him up in class once but Harry Fry and Noel Fehily have both come out and said he doesn’t take a lot of hard racing well yet and by there own admission he was slightly over when he finished 4th im the Aintree bumper last year. I’m taking a chance that Fry will have him 100% on the day but he knows the horse best so I’m inclined to trust him. I’v a nice few bob on e/w at 33’s so even if Getabird is the next coming of Vautour/Douvan il happily take a place if it comes along.
 
SeanRock said:
Personally I think if Samcro wasn’t around Getabird would be going for the Ballymore that and Sharajh’s poor run at Leopardstown means he’ll more than likely go the Supreme route now. His run last time out was visually impressive but conditions suited imo, he was in receipt of 6lbs off Mengli Khan and his front running display in soft ground was almost going to make it a stamina test rather than speed. His bumper performances were good but did he actually beat anything of real note.

I’m willing to take him on with If The Cap Fit’s. I think he’s been trained with the Supreme in mind all season and has beaten what was put in front of him convincingly. I would have liked to see him up in class once but Harry Fry and Noel Fehily have both come out and said he doesn’t take a lot of hard racing well yet and by there own admission he was slightly over when he finished 4th im the Aintree bumper last year. I’m taking a chance that Fry will have him 100% on the day but he knows the horse best so I’m inclined to trust him. I’v a nice few bob on e/w at 33’s so even if Getabird is the next coming of Vautour/Douvan il happily take a place if it comes along.
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Obviously he's got a few weeks to turn things round, but I'm a bit wary of Harry Fry's recent form. I know he follows the PN route of giving them their jabs in Jan, but only four weeks to go and his are running worse than most Id say.
 
Look at how quickly Ben Pauling turned his stable around after a rotten run of form due to flu in the yard. It doesn’t take long...
 
True enough Sean. But I'd personally want to see some winners going in before the Festival.
 
Mares Hurdle (W/o Apples Jade) - Let’s Dance.

Had a nasty fall at the start of the season. Looked very laboured for her at Leopardstown and didn’t look as though she wanted to start at Gowran Park.
 
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