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Champion Chase 2018

Very disappointing as I am a huge fan of the horse, it might help my Ryanair bet though. Looks vastly inferior to Altior on that showing, but he stayed on well there in the run in after being very keen throughout, might relish the step up in trip.
 
Politilogue winning today might put him as a very solid 2nd fav for the race!

Will have an absolutely ideal season, will have done everything he needs to, has definitely improved and I'd genuinly think he's the biggest danger to Altior. Min is a better result for me and to be honest, still expect him to run and place at least, but I think the market probably has it right...

*cue Special Tiara hacking up.....*
 
I didn't really like Min over hurdles but I did really like what I saw over fences last season. I immediately said last year he should go out in trip as he strikes me more of a Kauto style in the sense that yes he certainly has speed to do okay over 2m but that actually letting him lob along over 3m and use the bit of class and speed he has to really become a top class chaser over staying trips.

Ryanair would be where I go this year but I'm not Mr Ricci and I suspect we might get a very late call on this one, providing he doesn't have an injury problem.

I'd say Politologue alone sets a tall enough standard in the QMCC- that's before we even consider Altior. Go Ryanair and take on Fox Norton.
 
Very disappointed with that. That's not 70% of Min. I fear we could see an injury unveiled over the next few days and we lose another star for the festival.
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I think it's dangerous to write off Min on that run. We've seen the likes of Vautour, Champagne Fever etc disappoint over Christmas before only to look a completely different horse in the Spring. Like KSS I wouldn't be surprised if something comes to light. On his 2 runs this year he doesn't quite look the same horse over fences from last year. I do believe Altior is in another league but on what Min showed last year, he's right up there with any horse below Altior on his true running.

A step up in trip could help but that would make things even harder for Mullins to split up his horses. With Douvan out and Great Field's setback his 2 mile options look thin seeing as UDS would need soft ground to consider being dropped back in trip. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they swapped if the ground came soft but it's unlikely on day 2 of the festival to be soft enough for him.

As much as I love the horse I don't think Yorkhill is best suited to this trip. Despite 3 miles looking out of reach I do think he is more a stayer still than a 2 miler and he could get found out over the minimum trip, certainly against Altior where as 2m4 in the Ryanair for me would almost be his for the taking.

Politologue is a worthy 2nd fav for the race though no doubt. You can't fault him. He's winning the key trials. Improving on each run. I just cannot get excited about him though. It's not the horses fault. I still don't think the horses he is beating this season are anything of note but that just shows the lack of depth in the division. We've missed out on Altior vs Douvan...I sincerely hope we see Altior. If not and Politologue wins it will be some comedown from the excitement at the start of the season.
 
I love getting the chance to disagree with you..... :highly_amused:

I think Min does look the same horse as last year... going off the ratings he got, he was only a couple of lbs better than Simply Ned and it could just be that he's been given a rating slightly higher than he deserved.

His best ever form over hurdles or fences is the 7L defeat behind Altior, which still makes him a good horse.... but Superstar he is NOT. Now he might go on and win a Champion Chase (if Altior doesn't run) but he'd not be a certainty to beat Politilogue and on Soft ground UDS would beat him over any trip IMO.


With regards to Yorkhill, (and I've said this before) I think he and Altior would both be best over the intermediate trip.... but I think the strongly run races over 2m (which to be fair Nicholls said Politlogue needs as well) would suit him perfectly. Without a doubt I'd have to adjust if Yorkhill did end up taking on Altior HOWEVER, and its a massive HOWEVER for me, I was convinced last season that they stepped Yorkhill up to AVOID Altior as the JLT was absolutely more in his favour.... if they did it as a novice, and with what Altior went on to achieve in open company as a novice, I actually don't think Yorkhill will come here.... I've convinced myself he's the Ryanair horse.... :highly_amused:
 
Andy Holding gives an early preview of Cheltenham's Queen Mother Champion Chase.

When it comes to the Cheltenham Festival, bookmakers are accused – quite rightly in most cases– of overreacting to certain performances and, as a result, offering unrealistic prices. Take Coney Island for instance, who was almost halved in price in many places for the Gold Cup after beating two opponents – one who appears to have gone at the game – on his seasonal reappearance at Ascot. Now clearly he’s a horse of some potential and he might be good enough to take his chance in the blue riband event if he comes through his next race at Leopardstown with flying colours, but if just beating Adrian Du Pont, who clearly fell in a hole after going off too fast, constitutes Edward Harty’s inmate all of a sudden being a 10-1 chance in most lists, the layers have to be watching different races to everyone else. A very rare bird nowadays, therefore, is seeing a horse win a trial race and get pushed out in price, but that was the case when MIN (best price 11-2) took the Grade Paddy’s Reward Club Chase at Leopardstown recently only to be demoted by the stewards after interfering with Simply Ned.

Given the rules as they are, there was no way Willie Mullins’ inmate was going to be allowed to keep the race at the Dublin track (even more so in Ireland), but whether he would have won if Simply Ned had got a clear run or should have been allowed to keep the race is not the point, in essence, he performed much better than most observers/pundits suggested. Okay, he might have been a 2-7 shot, but that was arguably an unrealistic price in the first place given the opposition, and it wasn’t as if he did too much wrong granted the circumstances of the race either. Firstly, Gigginstown seemed to have a game plan to mess with his early rhythm by sending the blinkered-first-time Tell Us More up along sides through the first half a mile, and although Gordon Elliot’s inmate nearly fell at the third, he was enough of a menace until that juncture to eke out vital energy reserves in the favourite. The way he kept on in the closing stages once joined, therefore, is testimony to his class and the fact that he pulled clear of the two useful sorts Ordinary World and Ball D’Arc, who had nothing to do with the early skirmishes, should also be marked down as a positive. In the aftermath of the race, some decent judges suggested that the Walk In The Park gelding would be better off campaigned over further from now and go down the Ryanair route, but surely he shows too much speed and exuberance to warrant running over a stiff 2m 4f and besides, the stable has the reigning champ in the shape of Un De Sceaux – who looked as good as ever on his seasonal return at Cork.

Obviously, there’s the small matter of Altior in the way, who it terms of his form and natural ability seems way ahead of his competitors, but according to all reports he will to go Cheltenham without a run and that always has to be a risky business even allowing for the fact he’s trained by a genius. Politologue has become the real joker in the pack thanks to his brilliant season and he a lot of similarities to ex-stable mate Dodging Bullets who climbed through the ranks before capturing this prize in 2015. Of the rest, connections of Fox Norton don’t seem to know his best trip is and was bitterly disappointing in the King George, while we’ve yet to see the promising Great Field so far this season. Despite falling at the final ditch at Kempton recently, one would imagine reigning champ, Special Tiara will be back to defend his crown and given genuine good ground in the Spring, he’s not one to totally dismiss. However, the sight of him in the field would give connections of Min a target to shoot at rather than try and blast from the front and that’s one of the other main reasons the lightly-raced six-year-old makes plenty of appeal at the revised prices.
 
Good article (as always) from Kevin Blake this week on Yorkhill: (wasn't sure exactly where to place this! But with Blake wanting him in this race decided here)

http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/kevin-blake

The racing over the Christmas period is always very informative. Multiple strands of high-class form are brought together to sort out the pecking order in multiple divisions as the road to the Cheltenham Festival gets ever shorter in front of us. However, this year’s festive racing seems to have left us with many more questions than answers. The biggest hope for many coming into the week was that the staying chase division would be very much sorted out, but if anything, it is now the most perplexing division of them all.

The Nicky Henderson-trained Might Bite perhaps did the least wrong of the leading contenders in winning the King George VI Chase at Kempton, but for a much-vaunted star winning his first open Grade 1, it wasn’t a victory that had many in raptures. Indeed, both the bare form of his length victory over the 151-rated Double Shuffle and his performance against the clock were underwhelming. His most ardent supporters are likely to cling to the hope that he was simply idling late on, but the style one would have hoped for simply wasn’t there and with Bristol De Mai, Fox Norton and Whisper all running well below themselves, the substance wasn’t there either. Right now he looks to be the leading candidate for the Gold Cup, but his supporters will be hoping that he can do better than this in due course. As for his aforementioned victims at Kempton, they have even bigger questions to answer after their lacklustre efforts.

After that, it was the turn of Leopardstown Christmas Chase to step up and see if any of the runners in it could really put a stamp on their Gold Cup claims, but again it produced more questions than answers. The only one to advance their Gold Cup claims was the Noel Meade-trained Road To Respect, with the progressive six-year-old improving as hoped for the return to a left-handed track and also seeming to be helped by the addition of a hood on his way to recording an authoritative victory. While he is a horse that has struggled for plaudits in the context of a Gold Cup, this was a rock-solid winning performance and he demands more respect than he is getting.

However, it was inevitable that much of the focus would be on the beaten horses. Sizing John was a long way below his best and it wasn’t surprising that he was subsequently found to be clinically abnormal. Last season he proved himself to be exceptionally tough in the face of an arduous campaign, but he will need to be just as tough to bounce back from this and return to top form to defend his Cheltenham Gold Cup crown.

Another big disappointment was Yorkhill. The seven-year-old has been one of the most debated horses of recent times with the Champion Hurdle, the Gold Cup and quite literally every championship race in between being proposed as a potential target for him at one stage or another. Motivated primarily by his stamina-laden pedigree, his connections opted to start off his season here with a view to making him into a Gold Cup horse, but all the fears that his free-going, bold-jumping and sometimes erratic ways would be ruthlessly exposed by the challenges posed by longer trips and the slower paces associated with them were realised in no uncertain terms here.

Having been dropped in with a view to getting him to relax, Yorkhill refused to settle and with him getting precious little cover towards the inside, he pulled and jumped his way into the lead before the fifth fence. With him having jumped at his most erratic when in front in the past, it was quite encouraging to see him put in what was in the main a very good round of jumping from that point bar a mistake at the fifth-last fence. However, the writing was on the wall from the second-last fence and a combination of his early exertions, the lack of a recent run and lack of stamina combined to see him weaken right out of contention under a considerate ride.

Some have suggested that Yorkhill’s suitability to longer trips shouldn’t be judged too harshly based on this run given that it was his first of the season and freshness might have been a factor. That view would carry some weight on most other occasions, but given Yorkhill has an excellent record when fresh and that he shaped in a way that those that are familiar with his long-established tendencies feared might happen over the longer trip regardless of how fresh he was makes such excuses less viable. This was the worst run of his life by some margin and freshness is likely to have only played a very minor if any role in it. The blatant unsuitability of the trip was almost certainly the dominant cause.

In my opinion, Yorkhill is one of if not the single most talented National Hunt horse in training right now. However, with all due respect to those involved, I strongly feel that he hasn’t been campaigned in a manner that best allows him to show that talent. While some wish to characterise him as quirky, I don’t believe he is. I firmly believe that almost all of the idiosyncrasies that he has shown in his career such as racing freely, jumping somewhat erratically and idling in front have all been accentuated by him consistently being asked to race at trips that are beyond his optimum. It isn’t so much that he doesn’t stay these distances, it is that the early pace over those trips is unsuitably slow for him and his needs.

While Yorkhill is clearly capable of showing high-class form over mid-range trips, his aforementioned idiosyncrasies have been very evident over such distances and it has taken wonderful riding performances from Ruby Walsh to get him home in front at consecutive Cheltenham Festivals. I strongly believe that dropping him to well-run two miles over fences will result in us seeing a better-than-ever and much more straightforward version of Yorkhill. A stronger pace in front of him promises to cure all which has hindered him thus far, helping him to settle, allowing him to take aggressive cuts at his fences and giving his rider the opportunity to take his time in delivering his challenge.

Following Faugheen’s eclipse at Leopardstown on Friday, some will inevitably call for Yorkhill to revert to hurdles and aim at the Champion Hurdle. However, those making such calls would be well advised to watch the replays of Yorkhill’s races over hurdles to remind themselves of what a notably clumsy jumper of a hurdle he was. One can’t imagine that this will be improved by two seasons spent running over fences and that is a weakness that would be exceptionally difficult to overcome in a Champion Hurdle.

Rather than a return to hurdling, with Douvan out for the season and Min having underwhelmed in the Paddy’s Reward Club Chase at Leopardstown Wednesday, surely now is the time to finally give Yorkhill his chance to shine as a two-mile chaser? There is a Grade 2 chase over two miles and a furlong at Leopardstown’s Dublin Racing Festival on February 3rd that represents an ideal opportunity for Yorkhill to exhibit his prowess over a shorter trip. Should that go to plan, the Queen Mother Champion Chase should be his next destination.

I really do believe that Yorkhill has the potential to be the best two-mile chaser in training. It took an injury to Faugheen to lead to Annie Power being revealed as a Champion Hurdle winner hiding in plain sight and history may well show that it took an injury to Douvan to lead to Yorkhill being revealed as a Champion Chase winner.
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I'd echo his view and doubts on Yorkhill's hurdling and it's something I raised a few times earlier in the season when chasing was up in the air. Probably unlikely after Faugheen today but I really hope they stick to fences with him.
 
Kevloaf said:
I love getting the chance to disagree with you..... :highly_amused:

I think Min does look the same horse as last year... going off the ratings he got, he was only a couple of lbs better than Simply Ned and it could just be that he's been given a rating slightly higher than he deserved.

His best ever form over hurdles or fences is the 7L defeat behind Altior, which still makes him a good horse.... but Superstar he is NOT. Now he might go on and win a Champion Chase (if Altior doesn't run) but he'd not be a certainty to beat Politilogue and on Soft ground UDS would beat him over any trip IMO.
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I agree on ratings before the race there was little between the two. But that had an 11 year old with 25 chase starts against a 6 year old on the back of just 3 chase starts so I would have been expecting Min to be progressing with every run this year and increasing his rating. Considering how Mullins has fared this week, it being his first go in open company over fences (i'm not counting his seasonal debut as any kind of test!) I don't think it was a horrendous run. I rewatched this years race and the novice chase Min won last year and to me there is something lacking, visually he doesn't quite look the same imo. He may well have run to the same kind of mark and just not improved from last year. Whether that is the injury, a new issue or just that's how good he is? I definitely don't think he's a superstar but he looked like he could be a very good horse this time last year.

Soft ground then I would take UDS against Min (and most almost all horses) but on good to soft, I probably would side with Min just because we know he is vulnerable (defeat to Fox Norton over 2 miles at Punchestown). Politologue has done everything needed over 2 miles so far this season so I feel like I can't say for sure how he would fare, he deserves to be shorter than Min but at the start of the season at least, I would have had Min beating Politologue.
 
jono said:
I agree on ratings before the race there was little between the two. But that had an 11 year old with 25 chase starts against a 6 year old on the back of just 3 chase starts so I would have been expecting Min to be progressing with every run this year and increasing his rating. Considering how Mullins has fared this week, it being his first go in open company over fences (i'm not counting his seasonal debut as any kind of test!) I don't think it was a horrendous run. I rewatched this years race and the novice chase Min won last year and to me there is something lacking, visually he doesn't quite look the same imo. He may well have run to the same kind of mark and just not improved from last year. Whether that is the injury, a new issue or just that's how good he is? I definitely don't think he's a superstar but he looked like he could be a very good horse this time last year.

Soft ground then I would take UDS against Min (and most almost all horses) but on good to soft, I probably would side with Min just because we know he is vulnerable (defeat to Fox Norton over 2 miles at Punchestown). Politologue has done everything needed over 2 miles so far this season so I feel like I can't say for sure how he would fare, he deserves to be shorter than Min but at the start of the season at least, I would have had Min beating Politologue.
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I wouldn't be bold and say that this is Min won't achieve a higher rating than he has (or Simply Ned has!) or that he won't in-time deserve it. My point with Min is that, the improvement has already been well and truly factored in to his price every time he will/has run and in every ante-post list.

I suppose it is all price depedant, because now Politilogue is the 2nd fav, it is easy to find reasons that Min is a good bet compared to him. Andy Holding is arguing the bookies over reacted too far by pushing him out and unfortunately for me, he is better than me at this game :highly_amused:
 
I think you have to wonder how many Mullins horses are under-performing due to a bug at the moment. It's possible that both Min and Yorkhill come into this category and their targets will only be refined when this is clearer.
 
archie said:
I think you have to wonder how many Mullins horses are under-performing due to a bug at the moment. It's possible that both Min and Yorkhill come into this category and their targets will only be refined when this is clearer.
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Is the bug purely speculation Archie? Or something you know from your connections. It certainly looks like something is going on. Doesn’t Paul Nicholls always have a rubbish month (January?) when he dishes out his flu jabs?
 
Too many went out like a light for there not to be something but it's impossible to know how much each horse was affected. Until the problem is identified it will remain an open question which remains a poser for ante-post purposes.
 
Obviously I'm no expert , but what with Sizing john as well , could be something going around .
Or are the Top horses mollycoddled too much ? . can't imagine the top racehorses of yesteryear were
pampered like today's .
 
mayo said:
Kevin Blake makes the case for fenced in his latest blog

Mullins bingo then

Yorkhill CC
Min Ryanair
UDS Gold Cup

Or

Min CH
Yorkhill CC
Ids Ryanair
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Or yorkhill CH
MIN CC
UDS Ryanair
 
TimRiggins said:
That would seem to make most sense, to me.
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All likely to hit the frame if they did ... that combo for me doesn't give them the best chance of a winner though.

I can see Yorkhill and UDS/Min in the same race. I don't think Min or UDS warrant enough respect.
 
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