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August ‘23 Yankee

Fouroverthrutwo said:
I'll put up Apple Away for the BANC at best odds of 33/1. She won the same grade 1 novice's hurdle as Ahoy Senor beating Stay Away Fay and Maximilian in the process, posting a decent rpr. She appears to have plenty of stamina and stays longer than the mother-in-law :devilish:
​​​​​​My only reservation would be whether Lucinda sends Giovinco there instead.
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….certainly one I looked at too.

Looking back at that Aintree race, I wonder if Maximilian might actually be one for NHC but I haven’t seen him priced for that. Given the trainer, I’d be very surprised if they haven’t already got an eye on the National.
 
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I'm completely with the novice chases obviously being easier than the novice hurdles. And also like the idea of targeting four races for discussion and then having a vote. Proper democracy!

But... Anyone actually know if The Real Wacker and Stage Star were in the betting at this time last year, and if so what prices they were?

Lhomme Presse the year before as well in the BANC. Turners winner generally more readily found would be my memory, without looking through past winners.
 
Eggs said:
…. I got SAF in my book at 50-1 with PP on 9th Mar based solely on Nicholls stable Tour so he’d do me but somebody has pointed out on here that Donald McCain’s Maximilian has twice finished ahead of SAF and has to come into BANC reckoning. He’s not widely priced up, but Hills have him at 25-1 with 365 16-1.
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Maybe a note of caution with Maximilian , Donald Mccain skipped cheltenham this year , saved him for Aintree.
 
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BigChaang said:
Maybe a note of caution with Maximilian , Donald Mccain skipped cheltenham this year , saved him for Aintree.
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…how far out can you have a Grand National plot? Wouldn’t surprise me if he has that race in mind a long way down the road.
 
Istabraq said:
If it's anywhere it'll be buried in here....

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-...-odds-movement​
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Had a skim through and couldn't see either mentioned before November 2022. And from about then it was done on linked sheets which no longer exist, so had to give it up.

Also searched for the Real Whacker. He got a lot of hate nearer to the festival :biggrin-new: But no real mentions for him before the New Year's Day win. And certainly none that referenced a price for the BANC.
 
Benjy23 said:
Had a skim through and couldn't see either mentioned before November 2022. And from about then it was done on linked sheets which no longer exist, so had to give it up.

Also searched for the Real Whacker. He got a lot of hate nearer to the festival :biggrin-new: But no real mentions for him before the New Year's Day win. And certainly none that referenced a price for the BANC.
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Yep
real Whacker not mentioned from memory but was 25-1 nrnb on New Year’s Day after the race. Was similar price turners.
 
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I'd be interested in Maximillian for the Stayers if they decided to stay over hurdles. I can't picture in my head whether he has any size or scope about him, and I've heard nothing about plans. And the biggest risk of all is McCain rarely send decent horses to Cheltenham these days. Just the odd handicapper here and there.

I think with regards campaigning Giovinco and Apple away, it would be logical to initially campaign Giovinco towards Cheltenham and Apple Away to Aintree.

Apple Away has that nice win at Aintree in April, but performed poorly in her one visit to Cheltenham, so I'd have no doubt Lucinda would have that in her mind with regards how to split them. It's just logical really. I'd imagine Giovinco might get a sighter at Cheltenham, or at least a similar course at some point during the season.

I've got Giovinco in my Brown Advisory book for now, and hope he's up to that standard, but I won't back Apple Away for the Festival until I could be completely convinced that was the plan, especially when the big blot on her record was round there. So she'd need to head down to put that right at some point, and an entry would tell us. I don't think she could be one for a yankee, but would respect anyone's decision to back her based on their own views about her.

I think for yankee purposes I'd be choosing between Stay Away Fay, Sandor Clegane, and Corbetts Cross, given they're the ones that you'd be most confident will head there, and we've seen enough ability-wise to suggest they are genuine contenders. I know some are sweet on Nick Rockett too, but Patrick's comments about him being a solid Grade 2 horse would bother me. There are other horses such as Champ Kiely (NHC?), The Nice Guy (fitness and retained ability), Minella Cocooner (fitness and retained ability), Grangeclare West (plenty to prove but interesting chasing), Blazing Khal (fragile?), Grey Dawning (target), Iroko (good enough?). Plus there's the aforementioned Giovinco. Others too based on personal preference.

Personally I think a shortlist of Stay Away Fay, Sandor Clegane, and Corbetts Cross, with maybe Giovinco included is about right for serious consideration. The others all have more doubt than would be acceptable to be included in a solid multiple.

I have another horse in mind too, but that's for another thread on another day. And perhaps one for a future yankee.
 
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Benjy23 said:
Had a skim through and couldn't see either mentioned before November 2022. And from about then it was done on linked sheets which no longer exist, so had to give it up.

Also searched for the Real Whacker. He got a lot of hate nearer to the festival :biggrin-new: But no real mentions for him before the New Year's Day win. And certainly none that referenced a price for the BANC.
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They exist... just archived as Google Sheets ran out of space :highly_amused: I can make these available somewhere if they're of interest.

The Real Whacker was available at 50/1 before his win on new years day and generally 14/1 after his win.

Stage Star was best priced 40/1 September last year, into 20/1 after his Warwick win and out to 33/1 after his loss at Newbury which was available until the end of January.
 
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Dandrew99 said:
Stage Star was best priced 40/1 September last year, into 20/1 after his Warwick win and out to 33/1 after his loss at Newbury which was available until the end of January.
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Wish you hadn't mentioned that Newbury loss. I backed him early for that race at 4/5 or maybe even 5/4 and he was terrible. Told myself he's a dodge pot who isn't worth backing. Some might say that decision backfired over the rest of the season! :boxing:
 
Think at Newbury he didn't hug the rail which is his preferred style of racing. Cheltenham also suits him so much better. His jumping round there was a sight to behold. Great asset to have in his armour. He likes to get his toe in a bit as well to bring out his stamina reserves and it was Good ground at Newbury.
 
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What do people think of Hercule Du Seuil?

Looking back over some comments last year Willie earmarked the Arkle as future target for him last November “”He does (look like a chaser in the future), he could very possibly be an Arkle horse down the line. I'd say that's where we might go next season””

Do we think he may still fall into that category as a Tier 2 runner or are they getting runs into him with the idea of a handicap down the road? His current chasing RPR high of 157 isn’t top of the charts but worth nothing. Could be another like Saint Roi for same connections last year who also ran over the summertime albeit over hurdles.

I think he’s not one to dive into but worth considering when placing other Mullins or JP horses in the novice chase categories.
 
HesTheOne said:
What do people think of Hercule Du Seuil?

Looking back over some comments last year Willie earmarked the Arkle as future target for him last November “”He does (look like a chaser in the future), he could very possibly be an Arkle horse down the line. I'd say that's where we might go next season””

Do we think he may still fall into that category as a Tier 2 runner or are they getting runs into him with the idea of a handicap down the road? His current chasing RPR high of 157 isn’t top of the charts but worth nothing. Could be another like Saint Roi for same connections last year who also ran over the summertime albeit over hurdles.

I think he’s not one to dive into but worth considering when placing other Mullins or JP horses in the novice chase categories.
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Grand annual written all over him imo, good ground horse who won't run during the winter then comes back for the spring festivals
 
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Zachx02 said:
Grand annual written all over him imo, good ground horse who won't run during the winter then comes back for the spring festivals
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Yep - wouldn't be touching him for any of the graded races at present.
 
Hercule given a chase rating of 147 in Ireland.
I'm not sure he's a certain Cheltenham grade one type myself, given his profile, but he looks like he may have the ability and could easily be one that forces his way into the picture.
 
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Eggs said:
…..I’m not a great one for themes but I’m thinking Novice August Yankee is popular. A week in and MoM hasn’t surfaced to give us a steer so I suggest we go with 4 novice selections.

So far, I’m feeling the love for;

Mirazur West (Supreme)
Champ Kiely (NHC)
Ballyburn (Ballymore)
Corbetts Cross (BANC)
Inthepocket (Turners)

Lets keep the discussion going and hopefully MoM makes an appearance soon.
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Evening all - once again apologies for my absence. Not a great trait to have but as I’m sure you’ll understand, real world is sometimes more important.

Thankfully things are much brighter my end now and it’s full steam ahead for me towards the jumps season, fatjockey and most importantly the Cheltenham yankees!

Do like the novice Yankee theme idea.

Also really like Inthepocket as a Turners horse.
 
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Middle_Of_March said:
Evening all - once again apologies for my absence. Not a great trait to have but as I’m sure you’ll understand, real world is sometimes more important.

Thankfully things are much brighter my end now and it’s full steam ahead for me towards the jumps season, fatjockey and most importantly the Cheltenham yankees!

Do like the novice Yankee theme idea.

Also really like Inthepocket as a Turners horse.
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….good to see you back, Matey.
 
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Middle_Of_March said:
Evening all - once again apologies for my absence. Not a great trait to have but as I’m sure you’ll understand, real world is sometimes more important.

Thankfully things are much brighter my end now and it’s full steam ahead for me towards the jumps season, fatjockey and most importantly the Cheltenham yankees!

Do like the novice Yankee theme idea.

Also really like Inthepocket as a Turners horse.
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Good to have you back mate. Surely, in that case, Brighterdaysahead should be a yankee selection this month?
 
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