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Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

It beggars belief what price Goshen will go for the Champion hurdle if he comes out and wins a flat race later this summer off his current mark.
 
Just had a point on Bright Forecast on the exchange at 56.0 for the RSA

Was very highly thought of before he had his setback last year. Flew home at the festival the year before and apparently is built for chasing.

Delighted with 56.0
 
Who have Gigginstown got pencilled in for novice chasing next season??

Diol Ker, Fury Road, Easygame, Run Wild Fred, Commander of Fleet, Cracking Smart, Cobblers Way.....any others?? They are all 2.5mile or further horses.

None of the above are 2 milers so yeah Felix Desjsy may be their only option for the Arkle
 
The King Pimm said:
Who have Gigginstown got pencilled in for novice chasing next season??

Diol Ker, Fury Road, Easygame, Run Wild Fred, Commander of Fleet, Cracking Smart, Cobblers Way.....any others?? They are all 2.5mile or further horses.

None of the above are 2 milers so yeah Felix Desjsy may be their only option for the Arkle
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Column Of Fire


I don't think they buy horses to target races like The Arkle, however they do have runners and he is most likely to stay at 2m I'd think.
 
Kevloaf said:
Column Of Fire


I don't think they buy horses to target races like The Arkle, however they do have runners and he is most likely to stay at 2m I'd think.
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I do tend to be one step behind on trainers plans & horse targets but chasing is the plan for CoF???
 
At his age you'd think it's this season or never for Felix Desjy over fences, so the Arkle is the most likely route. Also I can't see anything else Gordon might have for the job. I'm sure he has plenty of options he can less obviously plot up for the County.

That said I backed Felix Desjy early for the Arkle on news of his well being so I could be making the argument fit, rather than what will actually happen.

Can anyone make a really strong case for him to stay over hurdles?
 
Spectre said:
At his age you'd think it's this season or never for Felix Desjy over fences, so the Arkle is the most likely route. Also I can't see anything else Gordon might have for the job. I'm sure he has plenty of options he can less obviously plot up for the County.

That said I backed Felix Desjy early for the Arkle on news of his well being so I could be making the argument fit, rather than what will actually happen.

Can anyone make a really strong case for him to stay over hurdles?
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This is the quote from Gordon after Aintree last year....
We thought Felix Desjy would like the track here today, and Jack was good and brave and let him stride along, and if he'd got beaten for doing that, he wouldn't have been getting the blame. Maybe he got a bit of a freebie, but that's the name of the game. Jack used his initiative and that's why we use these lads. I thought we might be in trouble after he made that mistake, but in fairness to the horse, in the last 50, 100 yards you couldn't fault him - he picked up and went on. Chasing is going to be his game, but this was a great run. Jack knows the horse at home - too many instructions would only complicate it - Gordon Elliott, trainer.
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With no obvious alternative for GE in the Arkle, he could easily end up the stable Arkle horse. 33/1 with cash out our 44/1 with a boost?

I might chance the latter.

*I couldn't resist. The Aintree form does look better now than it did at the time., With Amaron, Rouge Vif and Itchy Feet in behind.
1pt ew 44/1
 
I think Darver Star is interesting for the Marsh Chase at 33/1.


Most obvious is The Arkle, for which he's been briefly mentioned on the forum so far... but is it obvious?


He performed really well at 2 miles, but is that his optimum trip?

His record at 2m/2m1f is:
6531323
(12.5% win)

His record at 2m3f/2m4f+ is:
9416111
(50% win)


What that doesn't tell you is the last 3 runs were 2miles in Grade 1's and he was placed in all three (323) which is a superb effort.

The question is, did he contest those Grade 1 hurdles under optimum conditions or was it because of the circumstances that there aren't any other options for him? Who is to say that he wouldn't have been more effective over further?


With that in mind, the 33/1 dangled by PP is enticing for the Marsh Novice's Chase. Whilst I have a huge amount of respect for Envoi Allen, ignoring the rest of the market this far out would be foolish and when they met Darver Star was 4L behind. Is it unfeasible that he can get closer up in trip and with fences in the way not hurdles?

Rated (159) on official figures, he's only 1lb behind Envoi Allen(160). Easily one of the top rated horses going chasing and I think he's very interesting.

I've had a "free bet" on him to win, and I'll weigh up whether to add him 'each way', as I think that's just way too big a price. His age has been over compensated for in his price currently.

Thoughts?
 
I know you're not as big on breeding as some of us on here, but it would suggest no issue for Darver Star to step up in trip either, just something I like to briefly look at :encouragement:
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I know you're not as big on breeding as some of us on here, but it would suggest no issue for Darver Star to step up in trip either, just something I like to briefly look at :encouragement:
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:encouragement:

Just looking at that market, there has to be some excellent each way value.

Envoi Allen is 4/1 favourite...

Shishkin I would say has less than 1% chance of running, and he's 12/1

Then it's 16/1 Honeysuckle and The Big Getaway. The latter more likely to be in the RSA and personally I don't think Honeysuckle will run here however you could pay your money and take your chance with that.


Then it's 20/1 bar....

Envoi Allen won't get a walkover, so should probably focus some efforts into working out the e/w value!
The problem of course being it's very hard to nail down this trip as a target for any horse this far out.
 
Kevloaf said:
I think Darver Star is interesting for the Marsh Chase at 33/1.


Most obvious is The Arkle, for which he's been briefly mentioned on the forum so far... but is it obvious?


He performed really well at 2 miles, but is that his optimum trip?

His record at 2m/2m1f is:
6531323
(12.5% win)

His record at 2m3f/2m4f+ is:
9416111
(50% win)


What that doesn't tell you is the last 3 runs were 2miles in Grade 1's and he was placed in all three (323) which is a superb effort.

The question is, did he contest those Grade 1 hurdles under optimum conditions or was it because of the circumstances that there aren't any other options for him? Who is to say that he wouldn't have been more effective over further?


With that in mind, the 33/1 dangled by PP is enticing for the Marsh Novice's Chase. Whilst I have a huge amount of respect for Envoi Allen, ignoring the rest of the market this far out would be foolish and when they met Darver Star was 4L behind. Is it unfeasible that he can get closer up in trip and with fences in the way not hurdles?

Rated (159) on official figures, he's only 1lb behind Envoi Allen(160). Easily one of the top rated horses going chasing and I think he's very interesting.

I've had a "free bet" on him to win, and I'll weigh up whether to add him 'each way', as I think that's just way too big a price. His age has been over compensated for in his price currently.

Thoughts?
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Ballybeen said:
I had Darver Star backed for The Arkle but might follow you in for The Marsh. Found this piece which would indicate Marsh may be more suited https://www.irishracing.com/news?headline=Darver-Star-to-go-chasing-next-season&prid=208196
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Excellent, that's perfect - I'd not seen that but very strongly indicated a step up is on the cards:

Champion Hurdle third Darver Star is to be sent over fences next season with trainer Gavin Cromwell also considering a step up in trip for the highly progressive gelding.





The Danestown trainer added, “He’s going to go chasing next year. He jumps really well and hopefully he can make a nice novice chaser. He even jumps a hurdle like a fence.



“It opens up more options for him as he can step up in trip as well. I think he really wants further than two miles and more like two and a half.




---------------------------------------------------

I can actually cash out the Arkle bets I have for profit at the moment
 
I'm not a backer but here are some Darver Star post race quotes from RP.

10Mar20 Cheltenham (16.5Sft, RPR 162)
I was delighted with Darver Star, he ran a cracker. You'd love to win it but he tried his heart out and galloped all the way to the line, he was just lacking a gear in that class of race. The winner was very good but we kept going really well. Aintree over two and a half miles is an option but I'll get him home first. This time last year he was rated 104 so we're delighted! - Gavin Cromwell, trainer.

13Oct19 Limerick (21Hy, RPR 138)
He's been very progressive. I don't know where we'll go after that but it's possible he could head to Cheltenham in November, we'll see how he comes out of today. At some stage he could probably go over three miles but he won over two miles and a furlong at Killarney too, so he could go back in trip as well. We'd stick to the novice route with the way he's going, although I know I said a while back that he could go chasing. He had a bit of leg trouble before I got him but the owners were very patient with him thankfully - Gavin Cromwell, trainer of Darver Star
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I'm not a backer but here are some Darver Star post race quotes from RP.

10Mar20 Cheltenham (16.5Sft, RPR 162)
I was delighted with Darver Star, he ran a cracker. You'd love to win it but he tried his heart out and galloped all the way to the line, he was just lacking a gear in that class of race. The winner was very good but we kept going really well. Aintree over two and a half miles is an option but I'll get him home first. This time last year he was rated 104 so we're delighted! - Gavin Cromwell, trainer.

13Oct19 Limerick (21Hy, RPR 138)
He's been very progressive. I don't know where we'll go after that but it's possible he could head to Cheltenham in November, we'll see how he comes out of today. At some stage he could probably go over three miles but he won over two miles and a furlong at Killarney too, so he could go back in trip as well. We'd stick to the novice route with the way he's going, although I know I said a while back that he could go chasing. He had a bit of leg trouble before I got him but the owners were very patient with him thankfully - Gavin Cromwell, trainer of Darver Star
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Thanks Jackie......from those quotes Darver Star could end up in any race!!??:dejection:
 
I am surprised Darver Star did so well in those 3 Grade 1 races over 2M.

His best form was around 2M4F before that, with 4 out of 5 wins over the trip, once he started his rise to the top.

He was being outpaced in his first two 2M Grade 1's, but seemed more at home hunting up the leaders in the Champion Hurdle, which is a good sign for future Festival runs. (He still led at the last!)

The 2M4F Grade 1 hurdle races are few and far between, so he looked like he may have been pushed down the 2M route because of the race programme, then denied the chance to go to Aintree over 2M4F in a Grade 1 when the virus broke.

His breeding seems to be 2M4F on the mares side, her sire was Oscar too, which points to distances in excess of 2M.

Darvers Star's sire is Kalanisi, who's top chasing progeny look to be at trips of 2M4F
* Kalashnikov Grade 1 Chase over 2M4F,
* Brain Power Grade 1 Chase over 2MF, and
* Imperial Aura (Listed Hcap Festival winner over 2M4F).
All three of these had damsires no stouter than Darvers Star's.

I havent backed him for the Arkle, but I would back him for the Marsh at 33/1.
 
The three I've picked out as alternatives to Envoi Allen are Easywork, Chantry House, and Fiddlerontheroof. In the case of Easywork Gordon has an embarrassment of riches for the staying trips so surely Easywork is a standout from all of his to go here. Nicky has already said Chantry House is most likely to go to two and a half miles, and Fiddlerontheroof surely goes here when he was crying out for further than two over hurdles, and should have been a Ballymore horse last season.

I am convinced sufficiently to add Darver Star now though. I'd considered him a while ago but hadn't seen the quotes that Cromwell said he was likely to go up in trip so didn't feel that I could back him. So thanks for everyone's comments on this thread, I've just added him at 33/1, and I'll pop him in my diary shortly.
 
I do think Darver star would have a chance in this race - it’s the logical place for him. IMO he doesn’t have the pace to trouble shiskin in an Arkle and without EA’s target yet being set in stone it would make sense to start him over 2 mile 4 next season.

The problem I have though is his age. How many 9 year olds win championship novice races at the festival? Has one ever won the marsh? I can’t think of one.

33/1 is fair enough but it’s not a price that gets me too giddy either.
 
Hardy Eustace said:
I do think Darver star would have a chance in this race - it’s the logical place for him. IMO he doesn’t have the pace to trouble shiskin in an Arkle and without EA’s target yet being set in stone it would make sense to start him over 2 mile 4 next season.

The problem I have though is his age. How many 9 year olds win championship novice races at the festival? Has one ever won the marsh? I can’t think of one.

33/1 is fair enough but it’s not a price that gets me too giddy either.
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As ever with those kinds of questions, it's 'Not many, but...'
Or, "well how many have even tried"

Each case needs looking at on its own merit IMO.

The but, in this case, is how many horses like Darver Star miss so much time and improve so drastically? I would never ever have considered him at the start of last season, he improved from 104 to 159, which is staggering.

I think his hurdle rating is perfectly believable too, 3 very consistent runs.

His first run was Dec 2018, so March 2021 is only going to mean he has been "in-training"/"on the go" less than 3.5 years, which is not normal for a horse that will be 9.



So he's an anomoly. He is however the 2nd highest rated hurdler going Novice Chasing so to ignore him based on his age alone would be too dismissive of the other factors... for al lthat I think he'll probably find one or two too good by March next year!




One for a book for sure, not a basket to put all your eggs in - that's how I see him.
 
Spectre said:
The three I've picked out as alternatives to Envoi Allen are Easywork, Chantry House, and Fiddlerontheroof. In the case of Easywork Gordon has an embarrassment of riches for the staying trips so surely Easywork is a standout from all of his to go here. Nicky has already said Chantry House is most likely to go to two and a half miles, and Fiddlerontheroof surely goes here when he was crying out for further than two over hurdles, and should have been a Ballymore horse last season.
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It is so difficult to split those Gigginstown lot up, I think SW made a great case for Easywork in the RSA. Given he's already had to watch the backside of Envoi Allen already, I'm not sure he'd be put in for the sake of it when they have a few other options to do the same, just an opinion though. Chantry House is sure to step up in trip, though I wouldn't be wholly surprised if he went RSA, though the Marsh (as per bookmaker odds) is clearly the favourite race for him to end up in.

Something I haven't seen anyone mention (probably missed it), is that Chantry House was ahead of Monkfish & Co. in the PTP that Monkfish won, before unseating 3 out, that was over 3m and whilst no guarantee he would have been in front at the end it must surely come into some sort consideration.

Last horse I found that went from Supreme to RSA was Shaneshill, when finishing 2nd to Blaklion by 1/2 length.

Nicky has Glynn, and JP has Sporting John to fit in, provided both end up good enough over fences of course, and no reason to believe they wouldn't at this stage.
 
Hardy Eustace said:
I do think Darver star would have a chance in this race - it’s the logical place for him. IMO he doesn’t have the pace to trouble shiskin in an Arkle and without EA’s target yet being set in stone it would make sense to start him over 2 mile 4 next season.

The problem I have though is his age. How many 9 year olds win championship novice races at the festival? Has one ever won the marsh? I can’t think of one.

33/1 is fair enough but it’s not a price that gets me too giddy either.
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Hardy,

Darver Star only debuted on a racecourse 3 weeks before he turned 7, (December 2018), so he has had little more than a season racing, which for me covers the age angle, as he is "race-young" and had only had 15 months hurdling in total.

Samcro and Melon had a much bigger span of time in their racing careers than DS, and were 1st and 2nd in the Marsh this March, aged 8yo, with Faugheen aged 12 close up in 3rd.
(They were the only runners over 7yo in the race, and they trounced the 5,6 & 7yo's)

Darver Star's RPR on his first run at Cheltenham was 162 which compares well with Samcro and Melon's Cheltenham Grade 1 Hurdles best performances, before they switched to fences last season.

I do follow stats a fair bit, but they don't stop me backing anything that is statistically unusual (ie: Espoir D'Allen a 5yo in a Champion Hurdle).
 
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