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Arkle 2020

Ray said:
Jesus, i thought he was a mare! ..anyway yes he doesnt get those allowances at cheltenham if he lines up in the arkle
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No allowance, but the reason they get the allowance is to allow for physical growth/experience, hence the need for JOB to get another run in him before March...
 
Any quotes from Mullins about Melon after yesterday? Normally after a run like that you'd have to rule him about but Cheltenham form reads 2322. His run yesterday was almost identical to the same race last year.
 
Bapaume burst for anyone still clinging onto hope for this or the marsh
 
darlojim said:
Bapaume burst for anyone still clinging onto hope for this or the marsh
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Cheers Jim, that does explain why he stopped so suddenly having just started to keep into the race.

Won't be on the ferry though imo
 
A few thoughts: Notebook, considering he covered half of Leopardstown before the race, travelled strongly, jumped well and was a good winner. He is too short for me right now but am struggling to find much to beat him. I honestly think this is the right race for Itchy Feet: he travels and jumps well and has shown course form. However, it looks like he's going for the March and the trainer has Brewinupastorm for this. That being said the latter needs more experience in my opinion and the slower pace of the March (and higher emphasis on stamina on the New Course) could be a better option for him. it wouldn't be the biggest surprise in the world if they switched plans nearer to the day.
On a more speculative note, I am intrigued about I'm A Game Changer. He stays 2 1/2 mile (something I think you need to do in this race), needs a strongly run race and decent ground. He may not be good enough but has had none of these so far this year. In his first run for Elliott, he was given a very easy race and blew up between the last two. He then fell and then contrived to lose to Tornado Flyer despite running all over him until just after the last. He belted the 2nd last but it didn't stop but then he started running around going to the last; he clearly doesn't like being in front too long but he has more ability than he shown so far over fences. (as an aside Eclair de Beaufeu was 20 lengths behind him in that race). Obviously, he's a tough ride and will need to be produced just right but he's the sort of horse you could see swinging away approaching the last two. At 66/1, he may be worth a closer look.
 
Bayoffreedom said:
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On a more speculative note, I am intrigued about I'm A Game Changer. He stays 2 1/2 mile (something I think you need to do in this race), needs a strongly run race and decent ground. He may not be good enough but has had none of these so far this year. In his first run for Elliott, he was given a very easy race and blew up between the last two. He then fell and then contrived to lose to Tornado Flyer despite running all over him until just after the last. He belted the 2nd last but it didn't stop but then he started running around going to the last; he clearly doesn't like being in front too long but he has more ability than he shown so far over fences. (as an aside Eclair de Beaufeu was 20 lengths behind him in that race). Obviously, he's a tough ride and will need to be produced just right but he's the sort of horse you could see swinging away approaching the last two. At 66/1, he may be worth a closer look.
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Yes, I am with you on I’m A Game Changer, but which race. I’ve got him in a couple of small stakes multis at 33/1 for the Grand Annual, as I thought his profile may bring him into play, and weight range, for that race. He was entered for the Irish Arkle and the Eclair De Beaufeu 2M handicap this week, but didn’t take up the entries.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Yes, I am with you on I’m A Game Changer, but which race. I’ve got him in a couple of small stakes multis at 33/1 for the Grand Annual, as I thought his profile may bring him into play, and weight range, for that race. He was entered for the Irish Arkle and the Eclair De Beaufeu 2M handicap this week, but didn’t take up the entries.
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Grand Annual definitely an option; it's supposed to be a decent race for novices but the last one was Alderwood in 2013. Just thinking Elliot hasn't got much for this race
 
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Just has a little chat with Cod on close bros thread.
But for anyone not in a good space with this race.
You can't go far wrong backing Annamix 25-1 NRNB with Sky (if available)
If it runs Sunday at Punchestown and beats the likes of Zero Ten and Early Doors and Dunvegan, then it'll have form alongside Cash Back.
If it don't win then I reckon it won't travel.
 
And just to copy over what I put regarding Annamix on the Close Brothers thread:

Has enough to prove for sure but still 33's without NRNB, and given the majority have played their hand now, he is only just starting out his chasing career.

He was always going to make a chaser for me (being by Martaline). Would likely have plenty more improvement than most that switch to fences as he was so lightly raced over hurdles

I'm hoping he firstly runs at Punchestown and secondly goes very well too.

I think he's a staying 2miler, and clearly either wasn't quick enough or not revved up for going over hurdles. His jumping was almost faultless on chase debut, with the exception of towards the end of the race which I'm putting down to tired legs.

There is also collateral form with Valdieu and Chosen Mate who finished tailed right off from Annamix even with the experience under their belts.
 
Thanks for that spot, currently had Annamix on 365 at 25/1 but would much rather cash out and take the NRNB with sky, he either proves he’s good enough to take his place in which case much shorter on the day, or doesn’t show enough and stays at home. Seems a smart punt, guessing Rich Ricci would like one in the race as well and bapaume didn’t exactly cover himself in glory last time out
 
Quevega said:
Just has a little chat with Cod on close bros thread.
But for anyone not in a good space with this race.
You can't go far wrong backing Annamix 25-1 NRNB with Sky (if available)
If it runs Sunday at Punchestown and beats the likes of Zero Ten and Early Doors and Dunvegan, then it'll have form alongside Cash Back.
If it don't win then I reckon it won't travel.
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Willdunn99 said:
Thanks for that spot, currently had Annamix on 365 at 25/1 but would much rather cash out and take the NRNB with sky, he either proves he’s good enough to take his place in which case much shorter on the day, or doesn’t show enough and stays at home. Seems a smart punt, guessing Rich Ricci would like one in the race as well and bapaume didn’t exactly cover himself in glory last time out
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I'd very much advocate the NRNB over the 'cashout' in this situation.



If he wins, he shortens, fair enough.


If he loses, 365 will make him a wild old price and you're losing quite a signification percentage I'd guess?



At 25/1 NRNB you're either on something at half the price, and a bangwagon could start.... OR you have your money back if he loses this weekend (you just have to wait 5 weeks)?


If he loses and you're on to "cashout" you could lose quite a bit.....?

I don't think that's worth the risk myself?
 
Am I alone in thinking melon is a crazy price here? Would be the class horse in the race if turning up here. People seem to think he has'nt really taken to fences, but seem to forget he put in terrible runs around this time of year when he was over hurdles too, but it didnt stop him finishing second in the champion hurdle once he got to cheltenham
 
riccirich said:
Am I alone in thinking melon is a crazy price here? Would be the class horse in the race if turning up here. People seem to think he has'nt really taken to fences, but seem to forget he put in terrible runs around this time of year when he was over hurdles too, but it didnt stop him finishing second in the champion hurdle once he got to cheltenham
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25/1 is a big price - I haven't cashed him out yet as that's what I got him at :highly_amused:


If you believe the PP/BFSB guide, he won't run here.... as he's standout with them here and near shortest Marsh.


He's only 16/1 NRNB here at the moment (before other bookies price it).... which would look a fair each way shout on the day...

What I would add though, is for a horse as high profile as he is (and he is pretty high profile).... he's got a very poor win record.
21 runs



4x wins





6x seconds






1x third

<tbody class="ui-table__body">
</tbody>


Less than a 20% win record - but placed just over 50% of the time.

I think that sums him up well....?
 
Kevloaf said:
25/1 is a big price - I haven't cashed him out yet as that's what I got him at :highly_amused:


If you believe the PP/BFSB guide, he won't run here.... as he's standout with them here and near shortest Marsh.


He's only 16/1 NRNB here at the moment (before other bookies price it).... which would look a fair each way shout on the day...

What I would add though, is for a horse as high profile as he is (and he is pretty high profile).... he's got a very poor win record.
21 runs



4x wins





6x seconds






1x third

<tbody class="ui-table__body">
</tbody>


Less than a 20% win record - but placed just over 50% of the time.

I think that sums him up well....?
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Yeah i think a step up in trip would suit but the arkle looks like it could be a slightly easier race so im hoping thats where he goes but yeah either race he still looks a good price. The one thing I would say about his record is although he doesnt win very often when you look at his runs at cheltenham its hard to say for certain he looks ungenuine or lacking grit, he might be just possibly below the very best and beaten by a better horse on the day. If he were to run in the arkle though it would probably be the first time he'd be going to cheltenham as the best horse in his race going on past form
 
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