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Arkle 2020

jono said:
My biggest concern is the fact that Tom Segal likes him so much :highly_amused:
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That is a huge negative for me these days. I'd forgotten how much much he liked AD:sorrow:
 
In fairness Segal had a half decent Cheltenham this year (having been put off horses I liked cos he selected them)
 
robith said:
In fairness Segal had a half decent Cheltenham this year (having been put off horses I liked cos he selected them)
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Broken clock is right twice a day. His NH P&L is poor. Won’t waste time on him
 
JackieMoon33 said:
You could well be right that Nicholls will pot hunt, especially as he’s a syndicate horse and they want their days at the track.

I actually like the form of novices in handicaps as at least you have a real rating benchmark to work with. Novices who only run against their peers in open races are always harder to gauge. His official rating of 155 is maybe a better number to work with as its proven form.
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That is a good point regarding the more accurate rating... I suppose my counter is that in the novice chase division, going for graded races at Cheltenham, how "wrong" the other novice horses hurdle ratings were/are doesn't matter.
 
Segal is completely off the radar nowadays isn't he?
Certianly not been on any podcasts recently.



I've only placed free bets on the Arkle so far.

Nothing has managed to get me to part with any money and that's because there isn't a standout. I wouldn't even say Melon would get me tingling (I personally think he'll go up in trip but seem to be banging that drum alone thus far)


When there are no STANDOUT novice hurdlers.... then I am of the opinion watching their debut is more important than ever. Not one person would have mentioned Dynamite Dollars, or actually ANY of the field that ran in the Arkle... and although a lot of that was down to injury and bad luck, it's still a case of SEEING with this race.

The superstar winners of the Arkle's in recent years, were ALL, already top class....




Jumping is the name of the game without a standout novice hurdler, so with no standout novice hurdler, this race is way too trappy in Sept.
 
Gone into the Arkle market for the first time on THOMAS DARBY at 25/1 with Bet365.

Checked all of his videos and breeding.

He is a half-brother to a smart hurdler/chaser Muirhead.

He won his debut NHF race coming through from the rear, then did the same again at Cheltenham’s October Meeting coming from last to stride passed Elixir De Nutz by 3&1/2 lengths off level weights.

He ran well enough on right-handed courses until turning up at Cheltenham in March for the Supreme Novice Hurdle. Again he ran from the rear giving the winner and all of the others a start before coming through to challenge for the places in the straight, despite injury (see trainers comments below).


Harry Fry reports in today’s Racing TV news that “I think that Thomas Darby is very good and the Arkle is the long-term aim for him”

“He is one that really does excite me as he has got a lot of class, and I think we bumped into a freak in the Supreme.”

“He was a big, raw horse last season and struck into himself in that contest and finished lame, so that is why he didn’t run again afterwards, but he is fine now.”
 
Added Al Dancer for this at 35/1.

He's one that I can see shortening if he takes to fences.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Added Al Dancer for this at 35/1.

He's one that I can see shortening if he takes to fences.
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I think he'll shorten too, good old Tom Segal will make sure of that, will you be looking to trade him off?

He's another one, like Getaway Trump for me, that I'd be keen up in trip. I don't think they are best suited to 2m.
 
Kevloaf said:
Segal is completely off the radar nowadays isn't he?
Certianly not been on any podcasts recently.

I've only placed free bets on the Arkle so far.

Nothing has managed to get me to part with any money and that's because there isn't a standout. I wouldn't even say Melon would get me tingling (I personally think he'll go up in trip but seem to be banging that drum alone thus far)


When there are no STANDOUT novice hurdlers.... then I am of the opinion watching their debut is more important than ever. Not one person would have mentioned Dynamite Dollars, or actually ANY of the field that ran in the Arkle... and although a lot of that was down to injury and bad luck, it's still a case of SEEING with this race.

The superstar winners of the Arkle's in recent years, were ALL, already top class....

Jumping is the name of the game without a standout novice hurdler, so with no standout novice hurdler, this race is way too trappy in Sept.
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With all the information available to punters combined with access to plenty of profitable tipsters, Tom Segal was always going to be found out as a tipster who is unprofitable. It's actually a disgrace he still tips for the RP IMO, cannot stand him (does it show :))

As a backer of Melon he doesn't quite have me tingling, but I am quite excited about him at 16/1.

The two things that strike me when looking at the market are the sheer number of NR's (especially towards the top) and the absence of any real quality novice hurdlers entering the 2 mile chase division, as you point out Kev.

Factoring in Melons festival experience, Willies record in the race and the idea that Melon may improve for a fence, it makes him a very attractive option based on what we know now.

Going up in trip isn't a big concern. I think Willie has more options over 2m5f for the JLT than he does for the Arkle, and having raced almost exclusively over 2m during his career, I have no reason to suspect they will step Melon up in trip given how keen he races and having flopped on both attempts up in trip.

It's definitely a bit of a 'meh' race though that's for sure.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I think he'll shorten too, good old Tom Segal will make sure of that, will you be looking to trade him off?

He's another one, like Getaway Trump for me, that I'd be keen up in trip. I don't think they are best suited to 2m.
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I'll see how it goes but I'll probably look to trade a couple of my Arkle bets at some point. There are quite a few that I like (and have already backed).
 
After Ben Pauling’s comments today I’m considering pulling the trigger on global citizen for this.

Think he’s one of the highest rated that’s going to be novice chasing this year and I do like the way he tanks through his races.

I think riding him from the front is the way to go with him. He skips over his hurdles so hopefully he’ll do the same over his fences and is quick through the air.

My only reservation is he doesn’t look like he finds too much when he’s put under pressure....oh and his run in the champion hurdle wasn’t great either.

Anyone else fancy him?
 
Been thinking about it sprinter , But reservations about whether he's a flat tracker , and Ben pauling mentioned.
him going further than two miles.
 
Evening all, seen a few things have been talked about with reserve tank on the forum recently with him expected to make his chase debut this weekend, has anyone considered him for this race? I would agree with majority who think jlt over 2 and a half would suit him best going on what he's shown so far in his career but I was looking at the arkle market earlier and noticed how short of price Ladbrokes and coral have him for this race and with them being tizzards yard sponsor just got me thinking maybe I'm putting 2 and 2 together but was wondering what others thought
 
Nwfb89 said:
Evening all, seen a few things have been talked about with reserve tank on the forum recently with him expected to make his chase debut this weekend, has anyone considered him for this race? I would agree with majority who think jlt over 2 and a half would suit him best going on what he's shown so far in his career but I was looking at the arkle market earlier and noticed how short of price Ladbrokes and coral have him for this race and with them being tizzards yard sponsor just got me thinking maybe I'm putting 2 and 2 together but was wondering what others thought
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Tiz said he could easily go back in distance as well when talking about his Chepstow entry over 2m 3f ? He is 7/1 TWAR which is a no brainer with this one in view of trainer/connections.
 
Anyone on Fakir D’O? Blake mentioned could go chasing this week and JP seems to have far many more JLT options than for this. May take 25/1
 
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