J.L.T Novices Chase 2019

[Scooby91]

Timeform's Top-Rated Novice Chasers (updated 13/01/2019)

156p - WINTER ESCAPE
155 - MASTER DINO
154 - DYNAMITE DOLLARS
153p - DELTA WORK
153p - SANTINI
152p - DEFI DU SEUIL
152p - TOPOFTHEGAME
152 - KNOCKNANUSS
151p - LE RICHEBOURG
151 - LALOR

I know it's there own personal view so. Can't be too critical. But it's very questionable there ratings . Especially where la bague au roi is.

 

[Quevega]

Timeform's Top-Rated Novice Chasers (updated 13/01/2019)

156p - WINTER ESCAPE
155 - MASTER DINO
154 - DYNAMITE DOLLARS
153p - DELTA WORK
153p - SANTINI
152p - DEFI DU SEUIL
152p - TOPOFTHEGAME
152 - KNOCKNANUSS
151p - LE RICHEBOURG
151 - LALOR

Yep. I can see why they've done that. I liked how he won boopa, similar to you.
To my untrained eye, he looked like he had plenty of power still at the finish, visually looked very good.
I mentioned handicaps as a possibility before the Irish handicapper put him up to 150, so unlikely now, but I've just been scanning oddschecker and he's favourite for the Grand annual with a few bookies.

 

[Quevega]

I know it's there own personal view so. Can't be too critical. But it's very questionable there ratings . Especially where la bague au roi is.

They tend to generally under rate mares at timeform, not sure why this happens, maybe the allowance skews there ratings a little. I'd add 7 on to hers to get a more accurate ranking.

 

[Kevloaf]

Winter Escape JLT
Dynamite Dollars Arkle
Delta Work/Santini dead heat in the RSA

Thanks Timeform. :highly_amused:


I did consider subscribing to Timeform actually, would anyone recommend? (It'd be RP if not, or neither!)

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Winter Escape JLT
Dynamite Dollars Arkle
Delta Work/Santini dead heat in the RSA

Thanks Timeform. :highly_amused:


I did consider subscribing to Timeform actually, would anyone recommend? (It'd be RP if not, or neither!)

Not now!!!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I know it's there own personal view so. Can't be too critical. But it's very questionable there ratings . Especially where la bague au roi is.

Agree with this, couldn't pay for that.

 

[Kevloaf]

They tend to generally under rate mares at timeform, not sure why this happens, maybe the allowance skews there ratings a little. I'd add 7 on to hers to get a more accurate ranking.

They leave off the 7 lbs (which is stupid as they always have it)

She must be 154 based on Kempton? (so 147)?

 

[Quevega]

They leave off the 7 lbs (which is stupid as they always have it)

She must be 154 based on Kempton? (so 147)?

I think they do leave the 7 off, as they wouldn't get 7 in a handicap.

 

[Quevega]

Timeform aren't daft, been at it since 1948, a lot of good brains come from and worked for them.
Similar methods to beyer speed figures in the US.
Don't follow them particularly but always have a look what they've got top rated etc.

 

[boopa]

Their ratings always cause a stir.

 

[boopa]

150p - GETABIRD
150p - LOSTINTRANSLATION
150 - BAGS GROOVE
149p - OK CORRAL
149p - VINNDICATION
148 - DUCA DE THAIX
148 - HARDLINE
148 - VOIX DU REVE
147p - DROVERS LANE
147p - JERRYSBACK

 

[bobbyvalentino]

150p - GETABIRD
150p - LOSTINTRANSLATION
150 - BAGS GROOVE
149p - OK CORRAL
149p - VINNDICATION
148 - DUCA DE THAIX
148 - HARDLINE
148 - VOIX DU REVE
147p - DROVERS LANE
147p - JERRYSBACK

I rate how you had to post the remaining table until Hardline is mentioned.

 

[boopa]

I rate how you had to post the remaining table until Hardline is mentioned.

I'm just copy pasting their tweets. They posted the 2nd one minutes after. Is that ok with you?

 

[bobbyvalentino]

Haha, only a jest sir

 

[Quevega]

Once you take mares allowance on board, you can't really argue with them too much,
and the potential improvers are probably fair enough also.

 

[boopa]

I can see why Hardline is where he is. He's not flashy and he wears a hood. You can pick holes in it though. They have Duca De Thaix and Hardline on the same mark. DDT was beat by Us And Them and Jetz. Hardline beat them easily.

156p - WINTER ESCAPE - JLT
155 - MASTER DINO - x
154 - DYNAMITE DOLLARS - Arkle
153p - DELTA WORK - rsa
153p - SANTINI - rsa
152p - DEFI DU SEUIL - JLT
152p - TOPOFTHEGAME - RSA/JLT ?
152 - KNOCKNANUSS - Arkle
151p - LE RICHEBOURG - Arkle
151 - LALOR - Arkle
150p - GETABIRD - nr?
150p - LOSTINTRANSLATION - JLT
150 - BAGS GROOVE - nr?
149p - OK CORRAL - 4 miler
149p - VINNDICATION - JLT/RSA/NR?
148 - DUCA DE THAIX - Not good enough
148 - HARDLINE
148 - VOIX DU REVE - JLT?
147p - DROVERS LANE
147p - JERRYSBACK

I'm happy with 32/1 JLT and 65/1 Arkle for Hardline. He might find a few too good but his jumping will give him a chance.

 

[doctorwu]

I can see why Hardline is where he is. He's not flashy and he wears a hood. You can pick holes in it though. They have Duca De Thaix and Hardline on the same mark. DDT was beat by Us And Them and Jetz. Hardline beat them easily.

156p - WINTER ESCAPE - JLT
155 - MASTER DINO - x
154 - DYNAMITE DOLLARS - Arkle
153p - DELTA WORK - rsa
153p - SANTINI - rsa
152p - DEFI DU SEUIL - JLT
152p - TOPOFTHEGAME - RSA/JLT ?
152 - KNOCKNANUSS - Arkle
151p - LE RICHEBOURG - Arkle
151 - LALOR - Arkle
150p - GETABIRD - nr?
150p - LOSTINTRANSLATION - JLT
150 - BAGS GROOVE - nr?
149p - OK CORRAL - 4 miler
149p - VINNDICATION - JLT/RSA/NR?
148 - DUCA DE THAIX - Not good enough
148 - HARDLINE
148 - VOIX DU REVE - JLT?
147p - DROVERS LANE
147p - JERRYSBACK

I'm happy with 32/1 JLT and 65/1 Arkle for Hardline. He might find a few too good but his jumping will give him a chance.

Im with you boopa. Big fan of the horse. I'll be watching the Irish Arkle with interest as I'm still sure (hoping) the JLT is his race.

 

[Quevega]

I can see why Hardline is where he is. He's not flashy and he wears a hood. You can pick holes in it though. They have Duca De Thaix and Hardline on the same mark. DDT was beat by Us And Them and Jetz. Hardline beat them easily.

156p - WINTER ESCAPE - JLT
155 - MASTER DINO - x
154 - DYNAMITE DOLLARS - Arkle
153p - DELTA WORK - rsa
153p - SANTINI - rsa
152p - DEFI DU SEUIL - JLT
152p - TOPOFTHEGAME - RSA/JLT ?
152 - KNOCKNANUSS - Arkle
151p - LE RICHEBOURG - Arkle
151 - LALOR - Arkle
150p - GETABIRD - nr?
150p - LOSTINTRANSLATION - JLT
150 - BAGS GROOVE - nr?
149p - OK CORRAL - 4 miler
149p - VINNDICATION - JLT/RSA/NR?
148 - DUCA DE THAIX - Not good enough
148 - HARDLINE
148 - VOIX DU REVE - JLT?
147p - DROVERS LANE
147p - JERRYSBACK

I'm happy with 32/1 JLT and 65/1 Arkle for Hardline. He might find a few too good but his jumping will give him a chance.

I think DDT has clearly shown improved form once switched to handicaps and you could clearly see the way he was ridden early in the novice chase's that he was gaining experience.
Hardline is a nice horse but looks like a typical early season horse that's taken well to fences and picked up a few good prizes but probably lacks the scope to improve a great deal further. (not to say he won't though).
I'd doubt if either Hardline or DDT would be up for winning a competitive grade one. but you cannot be certain in this game.

 

[Kevloaf]

So La Bague Au Roi isn't there?!

Does anyone have access?

 

[boopa]

I think DDT has clearly shown improved form once switched to handicaps and you could clearly see the way he was ridden early in the novice chase's that he was gaining experience.
Hardline is a nice horse but looks like a typical early season horse that's taken well to fences and picked up a few good prizes but probably lacks the scope to improve a great deal further. (not to say he won't though).
I'd doubt if either Hardline or DDT would be up for winning a competitive grade one. but you cannot be certain in this game.

There's nothing about the race against Jetz that suggests they were running for a mark.

Winter Escape beat 145 rated Jetz 15L giving 7lbs. Hardline beat Jetz 26L. DDT was well held by Jetz. DDT hasn't magically improved going into a handicap he's just run against vastly inferior animals.

Hardline is just a better horse. He has barely had a tap yet.