Is it worth throwing a dart at the Arkle in this one? The picture might be a bit clearer by decision time with the Punchestown Grade 1 Novice Hurdle happening on 30th April, but even without that it feels like a race with some good value.
Looking at the odds we have:
Ballyburn 5/1, Sir Gino 10/1, Majborough 12/1, Mystical Power 12/1 all unlikely to go - Ballyburn elsewhere, juveniles given an easy season(?), Mystical Power a hurdler?
Firefox looks solid at around 8s and Elliott has finally shown he can campaign a top class two miler in Found A Fifty (what a season he had btw)
Slade Steel would probably prefer further on better ground, is apparently small in the paddock and has virtually no chasers in the pedigree (Ferns Lock and a few 110ish rated chasers only)
Impaire Et Passe would have a great chance I think, but maybe want's further now and they have Its For Me if he comes back from injury but that comes with its own doubts
Mirazur West would be very interesting if he filled the potential they clearly think he has, but he's very immature and jumps massively awkward/right handed - remind anyone of another horse?
Tullyhill is the horse I'm most sweet on at the moment. I'm more than happy to believe they got his trip wrong first time out when all of Willies were needing it and Shannon Royale (now 140) hasn't turned out to be too bad a horse over that type of distance. I'm also happy to believe he bounced after running so close to the festival. If both are the case, there's no reason for him to stay over hurdles given breeding and potential for Lossie, State Man, Ballyburn and Mystical Power to be Champion Hurdle bound so the 25/1 for the Arkle looks massive to me and I've invested appropriately.
Jeriko Du Reponet and Mistergif are others who interest me but with obvious caveats. Jeriko being his actual form, but I'd say this is a nailed target for him so I'm close to investing for myself but wouldn't put in a multiple at this point. Mistergif probably one to consider at a later point when he's won his massive handicap.
Actually, going through these via oddschecker, it really does look like a weak race. So definitely think we could target it - I'd have Tullyhill as my choice, but Firefox as an extremely solid option if people preferred that.
