April ‘24 Yankee

[Faugheen_Machine]

Kargese is better than all of them IMO.

The triumph looked like one of the best we've seen for a while and she may have won given a more judicial ride/not got to the front as easily. She just looked to ease away which shows to me a good horse that tries without much asking, so if they learn to use that better and not get to the front too soon then she'd be hard to beat.
Pretty sure Danny knows he went a little too soon. But maybe she took him there

And I reckon she'll be campaigned specifically for the Mares like Jade.

Forgot about her and she's one I've backed in some each way doubles.

Hope she goes for the juvenile at Aintree next week.

 

[darlojim]

Forgot about her and she's one I've backed in some each way doubles.

Hope she goes for the juvenile at Aintree next week.

That juvenile at Aintree has the potential to be really strong, with Kalif du berlais heading there and potentially Sir Gino. No doubt Willie will send 1 or 2 aswell

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Not my style, Archie. It's one race where I think it's still possible to snag plenty of ante post value.

Jade De Grugy was 20/1 a few days ago. Dysart Enos and Golden Ace both 14s. If Brighterdaysahead does go over fences, I'd be more than happy to have those 3 covered.

I understand that this approach wouldn't be for everyone though.

Lossie will always be looming over the race

Won't take much for her to end up in the mares again

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Lossie will always be looming over the race

Won't take much for her to end up in the mares again

Not when they change it to a 0-150:boxing:

 

[Lobos]

Lossie will always be looming over the race

Won't take much for her to end up in the mares again

Very true. Not a race to get too involved in but Lossiemouth still being in there at the head of the Market has however given punters the opportunity to get on her likely challengers at big prices which could look very favourable should she end up in the Champion Hurdle. The fact she is still the price she is must mean the CH is her current number 1 target as she'd be long odds on if connections favoured the Mares Hurdle IMO.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Not when they change it to a 0-150:boxing:

Wish they would Faugheen_Machine

 

[Birds Nest]

As I said, leave the mares well alone this far out.

There must come a time in the near future when we start seeing the benefiits of this bigger mares program with regards to fragility Archie, the more incentives to stay longer in training ,the better breeding knowledge, less fragile mares. I agree with you that we're arn't there yet but i do think theres an opportunity to be ahead of the game with mares, in regards to betting opportunities. Its a division like no other now, one where we look for forward patterns instead of relying on historrical ones ,which is the norm . They've been breeding fragility out of fillies on the flat for decades and thats coming to the nh scene sooner than we think imo. Its an interesting debate and one in which i don't tlhe answers but i think between us all on here we could find some interesting out of the box ideas and opportunities.

 

[archie]

Not my style, Archie. It's one race where I think it's still possible to snag plenty of ante post value.

Jade De Grugy was 20/1 a few days ago. Dysart Enos and Golden Ace both 14s. If Brighterdaysahead does go over fences, I'd be more than happy to have those 3 covered.

I understand that this approach wouldn't be for everyone though.

As far as I'm aware, these yankees aren't meant to be part of a book building exercise which is why I don't look for alternatives to horses already selected. Eggs asked about alternatives to GDC and El Fabiolo but, right now I don't have any.

If we did 4 successive yankees covering just 4 races with a different selection in each race each time, I'd consider that borderline insanity but that's only my view and I'm more than happy for people to do that. Wouldn't be for me though.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

As far as I'm aware, these yankees aren't meant to be part of a book building exercise which is why I don't look for alternatives to horses already selected. Eggs asked about alternatives to GDC and El Fabiolo but, right now I don't have any.

If we did 4 successive yankees covering just 4 races with a different selection in each race each time, I'd consider that borderline insanity but that's only my view and I'm more than happy for people to do that. Wouldn't be for me though.

I'd see it exactly your way archie

Creating cover in these Yankees for previous months Yankee picks is just deliberately putting losers in there, in the hope of snagging a winner.

I thought that the Monthly Yankee work was to highlight the current "moments in time" thoughts, each month where we snapshot the
updated best 4 good value potential winners
for races in March.

Some will fall in the same races as our previous picks, of course.

But best priced potential winners is our hunt?

Maybe I'm wrong?

 

[Eggs]

….keep the suggestions coming.

 

[AaronLad]

An idea for a potential theme to this months Yankee....

Slade steel, Captain Guinness, Grey dawning, Teahupoo, Golden Ace, Galopin des champs and Limerick Lace all ran and lost in April 2023. All won a graded race at this year's festival.

After a safe looking opening Yankee how about we go a little riskier this month, 4 losers.

4 losers this April that will win next march.

 

[archie]

It's an idea but you'd probably want to extend qualification to 4th May as that's the last day of Punchestown. Maybe do it as the May yankee using Saxon Warrior stat packs.

 

[archie]

….any suggestions, Archie, especially given the early capture of GDC/El Fab? Interested if you’d consider options to beat either (maybe F2F) or other races you think are more sensible plays.

As I said earlier, I think that GDC and El Fabiolo are the most likely winners of their respective races and, for me, it's far too early to look at options to beat them. I feel the same about Teahupoo.

My suggestions at this stage would be Gaelic Warrior in the Ryanair and Coko Beach in the XC.

Gaelic Warrior is, of course, speculating on which race he takes in but I think the Ryanair is the most likely. In the XC, I think that the likes of Galvin, Minella Indo and Conflated will be regressing and Coko Beach will only be a few days past his 10th birthday.. Ignoring the obligatory French possible, I'd see the main danger as Noble Yeats and who knows where he'll end up next March.

 

[Killiney]

One I like the look of is Jeroboam Machin. He may be going under the radar a bit, although he is only 16/1 or thereabouts for The Supreme so can hardly be said to have been missed in the market. But having missed Cheltenham there maybe some value in his price. He was after all fav for the Festival Bumper after beating a strong field at Lep. in Feb including You Oughta Know, Redemption Day, The Yellow Clay and others 4 1/2 l and more. A winning pointer he has the scope to make a useful hurdler. That said he has an injury to overcome but his price arguably indicates that this might not be an issue.

 

[Quevega]

I'd stick with the main three from last month and swap Lossie for Con Hill.

If it's considered doubtful given all the apparent issues then maybe Coko Beach like Archie says.

I personally thought Con Hill a more solid option for last months as choosing between Lossie, State man and Ballyburn is tricky. State Man most solid but probably not as sexy if one or both of the others come to the race in March. Both might not though.

Maybe another option would be to include all the same 4 horses as March and switch Lossie to the Mares.

 

[Quevega]

One I like the look of is Jeroboam Machin. He may be going under the radar a bit, although he is only 16/1 or thereabouts for The Supreme so can hardly be said to have been missed in the market. But having missed Cheltenham there maybe some value in his price. He was after all fav for the Festival Bumper after beating a strong field at Lep. in Feb including You Oughta Know, Redemption Day, The Yellow Clay and others 4 1/2 l and more. A winning pointer he has the scope to make a useful hurdler. That said he has an injury to overcome but his price arguably indicates that this might not be an issue.

There's been discussion on him in the members section mate. Under the radar.

 

[Killiney]

Thanks I will check it out.

 

[Killiney]

Thanks Quevaga I see there was even a suspicion he is dead ! But seemingly he is still alive but no news as to his health after the injury. So certainly one to leave alone for the moment, even though that’s too late for me. But at least I discovered the ‘under the radar’ thread.

 

[Joleg]

I'd stick with the main three from last month and swap Lossie for Con Hill.

If it's considered doubtful given all the apparent issues then maybe Coko Beach like Archie says.

I personally thought Con Hill a more solid option for last months as choosing between Lossie, State man and Ballyburn is tricky. State Man most solid but probably not as sexy if one or both of the others come to the race in March. Both might not though.

Maybe another option would be to include all the same 4 horses as March and switch Lossie to the Mares.

i would agree 100% with this, its about snagging winners and currently the main 3 are the most likely, given the knowledge that we have.

That being said i would prefer Con Hill as alternative to Lossie, rather than switching Lossie to the mares

 

[Lobos]

i would agree 100% with this, its about snagging winners and currently the main 3 are the most likely, given the knowledge that we have.

That being said i would prefer Con Hill as alternative to Lossie, rather than switching Lossie to the mares

Surely better to wait for news on El Fabiolo first ?

Been very quiet on him since PT pulled him up in Champion Chase and he was reported sore/stiff after the race wasn't he ?

Any updates on him ?