April ‘24 Yankee

[Saxon Warrior]

Surely better to wait for news on El Fabiolo first ?

Been very quiet on him since PT pulled him up in Champion Chase and he was reported sore/stiff after the race wasn't he ?

Any updates on him ?

Personally I wouldnt be quick to back El Fab at his current 2025 price given his error when pulling up.

Bound to be held up by that soreness.

Gaelic Warrior put up a 170 Arkle RPR, which is plenty good enough (as a Novice) for the Champion Chase in 12 months time, and Willie said hes sticking to 2M, post-race.

So I see that race, currently, as more of a puzzle than having a clear no1 shot, with little danger.

Puchestown will reveal more, hopefully.

 

[Lobos]

Agree Sax. Can't back El Fabiolo until we see at least see him entered up again. Might have Energumene back firing as well next season so it could get very interesting. Willie will not run all three in it.

 

[Exar Essay]

Interesting how differently people see things. I take the opposite view to the above about El Fabiolo. Seeing how many people are taking the contrary view, including some I’ve huge respect for, I am concerned I am on the wrong side of this one.

He’s currently best priced 7/2 and I’ve been scaling in at about 3.8/1 with WH boost.

He made a serious race ending error in the QMCC and that is his only blemish over fences. He's posted an RPR north of 170 five times already. Before the race, he was talked about as almost untouchable and as a serious talent.

Whilst the most recent performance has to be factored into an assessment (and it is probably the most important one when it comes to assessing the credentials of a graded horse) I do think that the seven 1’s before the QMCC count for a lot in El Fabiolo’s case. Further, it was an error that ended his streak as opposed to being beaten on merit (as it were). I’d be more confident that he’d run his race NTO than I would Gaelic Warrior.

In my view, El Fabiolo remains the most talented 2 miler around.

I am concerned about his general health and how he’s recovered from whatever injury he’s picked up. I know he was sore in behind and there was rumour that it might’ve been something a little more concerning than initially thought. But I think the 7/2 reflects the risk.

I would also add that the QMCC is normally a fairly straightforward race to work out at an early stage and I think whilst a little more complex, there’s still only 3 maybe four genuine candidates in El Fabiolo, Gaelic Warrior, Energumene and Jonbon. The latter two could easily step up too, and we could know which way Jonbon is headed by next week.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

El fabiolo is 20lbs better than anything Gaelic warrior beat in the arkle

Il believe he can beat him when I see it

No need to have a bet now though until its confirmed el fabiolo is fit and firing

 

[Odin]

I would also add that the QMCC is normally a fairly straightforward race to work out at an early stage and I think whilst a little more complex, there’s still only 3 maybe four genuine candidates in El Fabiolo, Gaelic Warrior, Energumene and Jonbon. The latter two could easily step up too, and we could know which way Jonbon is headed by next week.

I agree with this. The price isn't enough for me to get involved in El Fabs individually given the injury but the overarching point of there being very few contenders means it probably should be. Particularly as at least one of Gaelic and Energumene will move upwards in trip if El Fabiolo makes it to QMCC as Willie's number one - a point Willie also specifically alluded to after Gaelics Arkle win:

"I suppose we have found his trip now and we will keep him at 2 miles"
"But you have El Fabiolo for that?"
"Well I guess he could go the Ryanair distance"
*Paraphrased conversation from memory so may not be fully accurate in words, but is in context (I believe)

 

[Lobos]

Protektorat in the Ryanair must be worth a serious look. Very good win this year in the race beating last year's winner. Visually it looked excellent and the rating he put up was right up there with the best run of his life. They do at long last looked to have found his best distance so there could be more improvement to come even taking into account he'll be 10 next year. He's had just 5 runs over fences over the mid trip (out of a total 17 career chase runs) and his record over that distance reads 12121. His first reverse can easily be forgiven as he doesn't operate Right Handed and his other 2nd place was when giving lumps of weight away when an unlucky 2nd in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. 3 of those 5 being at Cheltenham (2 wins and a 2nd). Targeting the race again next year will now be a certainty which you can only say about a few listed in the betting and his current odds look real value based on the above.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Hard to see protektorat going unbeaten through the season though

Likely be opportunities to get the same or bigger price closer to the race?

 

[Lobos]

Hard to see protektorat going unbeaten through the season though

Likely be opportunities to get the same or bigger price closer to the race?

Wouldn't be having more than 2 runs before the Festival imo so hard to see his price going out.

 

[Quevega]

Wouldn't be having more than 2 runs before the Festival imo so hard to see his price going out.

Do you really think Desperate/Dastardly/Fraudulent Dan will only run one of his handful of grade one horse's just twice between now and the festival ???

 

[JackieMoon33]

Do you really think Desperate/Dastardly/Fraudulent Dan will only run one of his handful of grade one horse's just twice between now and the festival ???

He'll probably run him seven times and get him handicapped for the Plate.

 

[Lobos]

Do you really think Desperate/Dastardly/Fraudulent Dan will only run one of his handful of grade one horse's just twice between now and the festival ???

Next season yes. He's likely to run at Aintree I'd think and could well shorten up after that as he does run well there.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

He just doesn't strike me at all as one that needs to be backed this far out

Especially since he's going to run and probably lose at aintree

 

[Kautostar]

He just doesn't strike me at all as one that needs to be backed this far out

Especially since he's going to run and probably lose at aintree

That would be my view too. He’s going to be 10 next year, would need the ground to be in his favour and nobody has a clue what the opposition will be in this race in 12months time. Not for me at all

 

[Lobos]

He just doesn't strike me at all as one that needs to be backed this far out

Especially since he's going to run and probably lose at aintree

Personally believe he has a big chance in the Melling Chase. 2 1/2 on Soft/Heavy ground will be perfect and he loves the track.

 

[amtrakker]

Hi Eggs, MoM

If not this month, maybe next month we can consider horses that were "unlucky" at this year's festival? Not due to ground, but where they were hampered at a crucial time, or didn't get the greatest of rides, or where rider unseated (e.g. Fastorslow in the Gold Cup).

 

[Eggs]

Hi Eggs, MoM

If not this month, maybe next month we can consider horses that were "unlucky" at this year's festival? Not due to ground, but where they were hampered at a crucial time, or didn't get the greatest of rides, or where rider unseated (e.g. Fastorslow in the Gold Cup).

….i’m sure MoM will read your suggestion, we often have a Yankee theme. The important consideration is we think the selections have a chance of winning next March.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Done my first Yankee for next March couple of weeks ago.
Teahupoo seems an obvious one to me.
Con Hill also an obvious one at his current price.
I think Ballyburn will go chasing and being a serious serious horse will surely be aimed at the top chase, so current price for the Arkle appeals greatly.
Gaelic Warrior being an impressive Arkle winner will surely go for the QM, and can see him being their main hope come next March.
I think all these could be a heck of a lot shorter prices, maybe odds on,come March.
Risky? Yep of course, but can’t attempt to get value this far out without risk involved.
Be interesting to see how it pans out during the season.

 

[Ice]

Done my first Yankee for next March couple of weeks ago.
Teahupoo seems an obvious one to me.
Con Hill also an obvious one at his current price.
I think Ballyburn will go chasing and being a serious serious horse will surely be aimed at the top chase, so current price for the Arkle appeals greatly.
Gaelic Warrior being an impressive Arkle winner will surely go for the QM, and can see him being their main hope come next March.
I think all these could be a heck of a lot shorter prices, maybe odds on,come March.
Risky? Yep of course, but can’t attempt to get value this far out without risk involved.
Be interesting to see how it pans out during the season.

I've gone con hill and teauphoo but risked Ballyburn in the turners, if willie thinks he could win a gold cup i reckon he could take the galopin and fact to file route to it, i know it could backfire but risking him in one yankee, galopin completes the bet.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

I've gone con hill and teauphoo but risked Ballyburn in the turners, if willie thinks he could win a gold cup i reckon he could take the galopin and fact to file route to it, i know it could backfire but risking him in one yankee, galopin completes the bet.

Yeah Ballyburn Will no doubt have us all wondering which way he goes, he’s such a good horse and versatile with distance.
Ive left out GDC as I have a feeling his price will hold or possibly get bigger at times during the season? FTF and IEF both look very good from what I’ve seen thus far and would not surprise me if either were shorter than GDC next March.

 

[Ice]

Yeah Ballyburn Will no doubt have us all wondering which way he goes, he’s such a good horse and versatile with distance.
Ive left out GDC as I have a feeling his price will hold or possibly get bigger at times during the season? FTF and IEF both look very good from what I’ve seen thus far and would not surprise me if either were shorter than GDC next March.

Fact to file is the only other one I've backed for the gold cup so far and i will be putting him in a yankee also, not decided what to do with IEF yet, was very impressive at kempton but Cheltenham a different ballgame and the form from Christmas hasn't exactly been boosted (RIP hermes allen). I think we could both be mad backing Ballyburn and getting involved in the mullins bingo already, good luck though, we will both need it !:biggrin-new: