April ‘24 Yankee

[Eggs]

So MoM got 4 of the hotpots onboard early and we now continue into April.

Aintree will likely inform changes in the market but we need to be keeping an eye on Punchestown which I think runs from 30th Apr to 4th May (personally in favour of asking Saxon Warrior to nominate a specific Punchestown Yankee following that festival essentially giving us two bets in May).

Regardless, in the spirit of keeping things sensible this far out, maybe we maintain the theme of selecting a couple of ‘axis’ horses this month (definite target) along with a few that might shorten following Punchestown.

Fact to File would seem a sensible ‘axis’ selection and I’d nominate William Munny (Sup) as one that could shorten next month.

Let the discussion begin.

 

[Craigy14]

What’s about 4 horses who could oppose the March Yankee.

Constitution Hill
Gaelic Warrior
Theleme
Fact To File

If turning up all bar Gaelic Warrior have target sorted imo.

 

[Birds Nest]

I still think at some point golden ace needs putting in one of these, stills 14s, imo she beat those irish mares fair and square and was pulling away at the finish. Jeremy scott has already confirmed the target and said that her trip is 2m4f as she's bred to stay, even with a better ride jdg wouldn't have beaten her at the festival. I think thats a cracking price with maybe only fergals mare to worry about,but i dont she'll go beyond 2m myself..

 

[Eggs]

I still think at some point golden ace needs putting in one of these, stills 14s, imo she beat those irish mares fair and square and was pulling away at the finish. Jeremy scott has already confirmed the target and said that her trip is 2m4f as she's bred to stay, even with a better ride jdg wouldn't have beaten her at the festival. I think thats a cracking price with maybe only fergals mare to worry about,but i dont she'll go beyond 2m myself..

…..I think that’s a good shout but i actually like the case of one to take her on.

Dysart Enos is unbeaten (except for a 2nd on her only P2P run). Those wins include a 9L beating of Golden Ace in the G2 Mares Bumper at Aintree. Simon Rowlands reported;

‘Dysart Enos had as good form as any beforehand but took things to a higher level with this emphatic success, travelling well in mid-field, improving to lead going best over 2f out and soon clear, merely pushed out. Her accomplished trainer can be expected to do a good job with her when she goes over hurdles.’

In his pre-Cheltenham stable tour, Fergal O’Brien mentioned BDA and JDG as dangers, perhaps indicating he was confident of beating anything U.K. based. DE then had the setback but apparently she’s back in training and could be Aintree bound. I think she’s of real interest to give his trainer his first Festival winner on the opening day next March.

Therein lies a problem for this Yankee. If they do meet at Aintree in a few weeks, the victor is bound to get a severe haircut for the Mares Hurdle.

 

[Odin]

Therein lies a problem for this Yankee. If they do meet at Aintree in a few weeks, the victor is bound to get a severe haircut for next March.

On the flip side, if Dysart Enos beats Golden Ace, having not run at Cheltenham, there are valid excuses that the March run could have left its mark on Golden Ace, making her likely drift in price more attractive. And we will have plenty of time to debate the validity of those excuses before the end of the month.

One thing is for sure imo though - the Mares looks like a race which can be attacked this year. 5/1 is short for Jade De Grugy on what she's done and Lossie looks more likely to go to the Champion Hurdle at this stage given long-term plans and the issues Constitution has been suffering.

 

[Birds Nest]

…..I think that’s a good shout but i actually like the case of one to take her on.

Dysart Enos is unbeaten (except for a 2nd on her only P2P run). Those wins include a 9L beating of Golden Ace in the G2 Mares Bumper at Aintree. Simon Rowlands reported;

‘Dysart Enos had as good form as any beforehand but took things to a higher level with this emphatic success, travelling well in mid-field, improving to lead going best over 2f out and soon clear, merely pushed out. Her accomplished trainer can be expected to do a good job with her when she goes over hurdles.’

In his pre-Cheltenham stable tour, Fergal O’Brien mentioned BDA and JDG as dangers, perhaps indicating he was confident of beating anything U.K. based. DE then had the setback but apparently she’s back in training and could be Aintree bound. I think she’s of real interest to give his trainer his first Festival winner on the opening day next March.

Therein lies a problem for this Yankee. If they do meet at Aintree in a few weeks, the victor is bound to get a severe haircut for the Mares Hurdle.

I agree, dysart is the fly for golden ace, they're both entered at kelso on the 6th too, the kelso final was an option mentioned for GA by scott. They might even avoid each other but ive a suspicion kelso might be the race.

 

[Birds Nest]

On the flip side, if Dysart Enos beats Golden Ace, having not run at Cheltenham, there are valid excuses that the March run could have left its mark on Golden Ace, making her likely drift in price more attractive. And we will have plenty of time to debate the validity of those excuses before the end of the month.

One thing is for sure imo though - the Mares looks like a race which can be attacked this year. 5/1 is short for Jade De Grugy on what she's done and Lossie looks more likely to go to the Champion Hurdle at this stage given long-term plans and the issues Constitution has been suffering.

I also think dysart is the better of the 2 over 2ms but GA would be better over further. Theres a good market in the mares of which the irish are holding up.

 

[Odin]

I agree, dysart is the fly for golden ace, they're both entered at kelso on the 6th too, the kelso final was an option mentioned for GA by scott. They might even avoid each other but ive a suspicion kelso might be the race.

Just looked at that race.
2m and Dysart receives 8lb off Golden despite being an unbeaten novice who beat Golden 9l in the Aintree bumper last year. Will be very interested to see how they price that one up!

 

[Atlantic Viking]

Stating the obvious, but Ballyburn is annoying when looking at next year isn't he?! Wouldn't be put off by banging Teahupoo in multiple ones of these even though it's dull, can't see much opposition and will surely campaign him similarly. Remains to be seen how good a Supreme it was and I have a suspicion Mystical Power would overturn it on better ground, but Slade Steel remains an ok price for the Arkle imo, a well trodden path and a race the owners are still to tick off. Probably Ballyburns 2nd or 3rd option and most of the others towards the front of the current market are either much more likely to head elsewhere or juveniles with all the disclaimers that comes with (I do really like Marjborough with fences in mind though...).
Fact To File looks to have it all, jumps well which is at least in part how Fastorslow got the better of GDC twice. The price is short enough though especially considering GDC has notched up 2 with both involving having various difficulties to overcome in runninh. Constitution Hill and Ballyburn throw different questions into the CH mix but I think Lossiemouth would have the beating of State Man. I feel the same about Gaelic Warrior and El Fabiolo if we get to see them take each other on beforehand, the latter was a sickener but ultimately it was something he's threatened to do at some point.

 

[Spectre]

I'm not sure I agree with the assumptions that Dysart Enos won't get 2 miles and Golden Ace will. It's pure speculation with both, and with no real basis. In actual fact on breeding you'd expect Dysart Enos to have no problem getting two and half miles, and it's more debatable with Golden Horn's breeding. In fact I'd say highly debatable. She also won a slowly run Mares Novice because of speed. Her Sire has bred largely two miles with some two and half miles, and he damsire has bred two milers. Most of those that didn't make it were because they couldn't get a two mile trip.

As has been said they may not meet this season either, with Dysart if fit going to Aintree, and Jeremy Scott having said that Kelso may be Golden Ace's race.

If I were to make a call between the two I would be firmly in the Dysart Enos camp.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm not sure I agree with the assumptions that Dysart Enos won't get 2 miles and Golden Ace will. It's pure speculation with both, and with no real basis. In actual fact on breeding you'd expect Dysart Enos to have no problem getting two and half miles, and it's more debatable with Golden Horn's breeding. In fact I'd say highly debatable. She also won a slowly run Mares Novice because of speed. Her Sire has bred largely two miles with some two and half miles, and he damsire has bred two milers. Most of those that didn't make it were because they couldn't get a two mile trip.

As has been said they may not meet this season either, with Dysart if fit going to Aintree, and Jeremy Scott having said that Kelso may be Golden Ace's race.

If I were to make a call between the two I would be firmly in the Dysart Enos camp.

This is how I see it.

I'd rather play Dysart Enos over Golden Ace, on what we know to date, despite Golden Ace winning the Mares Novice Hurdle at the festival.

 

[Birds Nest]

I'm not sure I agree with the assumptions that Dysart Enos won't get 2 miles and Golden Ace will. It's pure speculation with both, and with no real basis. In actual fact on breeding you'd expect Dysart Enos to have no problem getting two and half miles, and it's more debatable with Golden Horn's breeding. In fact I'd say highly debatable. She also won a slowly run Mares Novice because of speed. Her Sire has bred largely two miles with some two and half miles, and he damsire has bred two milers. Most of those that didn't make it were because they couldn't get a two mile trip.

As has been said they may not meet this season either, with Dysart if fit going to Aintree, and Jeremy Scott having said that Kelso may be Golden Ace's race.

If I were to make a call between the two I would be firmly in the Dysart Enos camp.

It was based mostly on trainers comments Paul, fergal said dysart is all speed,in fact shes the fastest thing in his yard whilst scott said GA is a 2 and half miler. Also imo when looking at staying types over hurdles that are flat bred, 1m4f is the sweet spot. A golden horn nh horse would for me be a perfect 2m4f horse. Only opinions of course.

 

[Spectre]

It's the damsire side that would worry me with her going up in trip. Her sire throws out a mix of two and two and half milers over jumps. It's not an exact science obviously, but usually a decent guide what to expect in the future.

Aside from that the challenge with both of them is very similar. They're both strong traveling types, and that's certainly why Fergal has said what he has. Dysart Enos was much better last time at Doncaster though and looked like she'd learned to drop the bit. Golden Ace though travelled strongly all way through the Mares Novice.

The key to both I suspect will be whether they learn to switch off and race like two and half milers, because nether really do. But assuming they do, on breeding Dysart Enos is the one that should be better naturally equipped to go out in trip.

then you have the added factor of how next seasons Mares Novice Hurdle is run. If it's strongly run I suspect Dysart will be better equipped of the two, but that will also suit Jade de Grugy. If it's a slowly/moderately run race, then it's a bit more interesting. Golden Ace has improved since their bumper days., and it's no given that Dysart Enos can confirm the form, although I'd edge towards her doing so. And we also have the added factor that Lossiemouth isn't a certainty to go to the Champion Hurdle. If Constitution Hill is back fit and firing I suspect Willie would prefer her to come here.

All opinions of course, but it does suggest that perhaps the Mares Hurdle is a race better considered for one of these when next season starts to unfold. That said, at this time of the year, pretty much anything that goes in at a price is going to come down to opinions rather than certainty. I'm also dubious about following Aintree form too. It's race that it provides a good guide to the following season's Festival. The same being true of Punchestown. Generally the best guide to finding Festival winner is either previous Festival form, or course form.

 

[archie]

I'd be going nowhere near the Mares Hurdle this far out. As I've said before, there is every incentive to retire mares at the first sign of fallibility and now that there is the mares chase available, it's very difficult to predict which way the decent novice mares will go.
For what it's worth, of all the novice mares I'd make Brighterdaysahead the best prospect for the 2025 Mares Hurdle. Decent staying pedigree and still young enough to make another hurdling season a realistic option. Also, at the weights, the best horse in the race in March.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I would have those Mares Hurdle 2025 ones, as a bit of guess work this far out, as to who would be the best next March, and actually running in the Mares Hurdle.

Jade has given the form of the three in front of her at Cheltenham a boost with a Grade 1 win, which is handy.

The weekend Grade 1 win was a 147 RPR for Jade, and a decent enough number for progressing from, next year.

The 3rd in Lossiemouths Mares Hurdle only got a 140 RPR this time round, showing how poor a field she had to beat.

I was taken by the most inexperienced Mare in the field at the weekend, Spindleberry, running a mighty race, on her second hurdle start, with a 143 RPR splitting the two Favs and running brilliantly.

No idea, yet, where she will go, but every chance she could improve at least as much as these more experienced Mares Novice's. to be competitive next season whether its the Mares Hurdle or elsewhere.

Golden Ace, scored comfortably on Soft ground over 2M1F, from Jade, Brighterdaysahead and Birdie or Bust getting 5lb from all three.

There seemed no fluke about that result, from where I was watching the race, in the stands, she travelled all over them. Although I was gutted with the result, the way I saw it she was the best Mare on the day, even if you stuck 5lb more on her back.

Dysart Enos could be anything too, campaigned like a handicapper waiting for a big pot handicap off a low weight :highly_amused::highly_amused::highly_amused: - we have no idea what she can do, just yet.

The Malinas (Beneficial Damsire) breeding suggest midtrips would be okay, if they wanted to go that way in future.

Golden Ace has already won over 2M3F on her belated hurdles debut, so I'd go along with thinking 2M4F would be a piece of piss, next season.

Always handy to have pace, when going midtrips (Ballyburn has plenty and stays well, as do Lossiemouth, Gaelic Warrior etc).

Ive already written about her breeding on the March thread, when suggesting she could be considered as a Mares Hurdle bet within a Yankee.

She's stoutly bred on her flat pedigree, her dam was a Soft ground 1M6F Listed winner, and her family tracks back to a 2M4F Group 1 Flat winner (San Sebastian, won the Prix Du Cadran and the Ascot Stakes over that trip) and an Oaks 2nd (Noushkey).

Golden Horn seems an influence for stamina, and is used as a dual purpose stallion, latest decent ones on the flat were the Queens Vase winner, and long-time St Leger Fav last season, Gregory, and Trawlerman winner of the deep ground Long Distance Cup over 2M on Champions Day (beating Kyprios).

So, for me, it looks potentially all change in the Mares Hurdle ranks next season, which is great as Lossiemouth aside it needs a complete refresh, and this Mares Novice division of Jade De Grugy, Golden Ace, Brighterdaysahead, Spindleberry and Dysart Enos could help give that refresh next season.

All five are already close to capable of being placed, in a Mares Hurdle, which of them could Win it in 2025 (if any), is probably more down to personal preference a.t.m. than definitive formbook work.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Brighterdaysahead the most likely to go over fences? She's priced up as if that's the case at the moment.

 

[archie]

As I said, leave the mares well alone this far out.

 

[Eggs]

As I said, leave the mares well alone this far out.

….any suggestions, Archie, especially given the early capture of GDC/El Fab? Interested if you’d consider options to beat either (maybe F2F) or other races you think are more sensible plays.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

As I said, leave the mares well alone this far out.

Not my style, Archie. It's one race where I think it's still possible to snag plenty of ante post value.

Jade De Grugy was 20/1 a few days ago. Dysart Enos and Golden Ace both 14s. If Brighterdaysahead does go over fences, I'd be more than happy to have those 3 covered.

I understand that this approach wouldn't be for everyone though.

 

[Quevega]

Not my style, Archie. It's one race where I think it's still possible to snag plenty of ante post value.

Jade De Grugy was 20/1 a few days ago. Dysart Enos and Golden Ace both 14s. If Brighterdaysahead does go over fences, I'd be more than happy to have those 3 covered.

I understand that this approach wouldn't be for everyone though.

Kargese is better than all of them IMO.

The triumph looked like one of the best we've seen for a while and she may have won given a more judicial ride/not got to the front as easily. She just looked to ease away which shows to me a good horse that tries without much asking, so if they learn to use that better and not get to the front too soon then she'd be hard to beat.
Pretty sure Danny knows he went a little too soon. But maybe she took him there

And I reckon she'll be campaigned specifically for the Mares like Jade.