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Albert Bartlett 2020

JackieMoon33 said:
33.33%?

Would it not be 5 win/placed from 45 (15 years x 3 places)?

They are always good to have in the book regardless as you know one performance will result in an over the top price drop
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2 wins and 3 places (5 in total) in 15 years (15 runnings) is 33.33%. Where did the 45 come from?
 
Come on Cod.
doh ?
 
ComplyOrDie said:
2 wins and 3 places (5 in total) in 15 years (15 runnings) is 33.33%. Where did the 45 come from?
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There are 45 places available over the 15 years (3 places per year).

Maybe I'm looking at it a different way to you are so apologies.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
There are 45 places available over the 15 years (3 places per year).

Maybe I'm looking at it a different way to you are so apologies.
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Nope, I've just got what you meant, I was reading it wrong too :highly_amused:

3 places per race, but to use that we would also have to see how many runners they've had, I was just laying a very bare 5 win/places in 15 races is 33.33%, the variables were not taken into account.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Nope, I've just got what you meant, I was reading it wrong too :highly_amused:

3 places per race, but to use that we would also have to see how many runners they've had, I was just laying a very bare 5 win/places in 15 races is 33.33%, the variables were not taken into account.
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Mine was simplistic too as I couldn't be ar$ed looking at number of runners. I just took a snap shot of the historical placed horses and was surprised Giggy had not had more.
 
Not going to be adding a lot to the conversation with this point, but I will not be backing this race ante post.

2011 - backed the winner, Bobs Worth, on the day (before I was doing ante post)
2012 - backed two losers on the day
2013 - backed the winner, At Fishers Cross, on the day.
2014 - backed a loser on the day, Briar Hill
2015 - backed the winner, Martello Tower on 7th March (Matt Tombs tipped "ante post") on oddschecker, also backed a loser on day.
2016 - backed 5 ante post (Barters Hill, Shantou Village, Ganger, West Approach, Long Dog) - no returns
2017 - backed 9 ante post, 4 non runners and had Monalee place, with Death Duty, Augusta Kate, The Worlds End and Wholestone as ante post losers
2018 - backed 5 non runners, and 8 losers in the race (with Santini placing e/w)
2019 - backed the field (almost) ante post at bigger than SP, leaving me to cover all bar 2 horses on the day to create a green book... and inexplicably left off Minella Indo as I was sure Allaho had that covered. a 26 pt loss overall for that race this year.



That to me, shows me that I can't get this race right ante post. Now you may read that and think I don't know what I'm doing :p which might be true, but I do alright over the other 26 races (the bumper the other notable atrocious ante post race for me).



I've had some nice prices going in to the day, but they always come up short.



Fck this race ante post.
 
I do remember on my notes from reviewing last season to ignore this race as an antepost angle Kev as it goes.

But someone had to start this thread and I’d still love to know what sort of price I’d be offered for Mr Grey Sky prior to his hurdling debut.
 
I have continuously lost lots on the Albert Bartlett, Mares Novice (avoiding odds on Fav), Champion Bumper and Triumph so whilst covering a number of ‘any race’ bets will be trying to avoid the ante post markets in these races
 
Star quality

Thyme Hill
5g Kayf Tara - Rosita Bay
Tony and Beth England & Adrian and Andrew Heywood
123-1
RPR 143h OR -
At the start of the season I said I hoped he was among our best novice hurdle prospects; after Chepstow I can safely say he is our best novice hurdle prospect. To win the Grade 2 Persian War on your hurdling debut was a great start. Interestingly, we did the same with Fingal Bay and he ended up winning at the Cheltenham Festival. Could Thyme Hill do the same? I certainly hope he’ll be good enough to try. His Champion Bumper third was another fantastic piece of form. He’s in great nick and the obvious next race for him is the Grade 2 2m5f novice hurdle at Cheltenham’s Open meeting. But this is not a horse you want to be running every two or three weeks. Last season he ran up a bit lean and light in condition, which is why we gave him a four-month winter break. He’s still inclined to be like that, although it’s not as pronounced this season. And although you’d think he’ll improve masses after one run over hurdles, he knew his job so well first time out, he might not step up markedly next time. Then again, he might not need to. If pressed to say where he might end up, I’d say it would be the Albert Bartlett rather than the shorter Ballymore.
 
Thankyou.
Thats what I wanted to hear. He reminds me of at fishers cross.

Was a good race, he toughed it out, and was going away at the line. Some debut.
Not a race I'd want to be involved in. But I'm very happy to take the 25s on him for this.
 
Not quite what i wanted to hear J.M, as Phillip hobbs definitely said Ballymore type ,.
after the festival , But moving on and moving up ..
Definitely have to back thyme hill in what ever race , and still a decent price .
after a run , unlike some others discussed on the forum.
 
Yes I read an interview where Hobbs said Ballymore type too. Annoying as took the 33/1 for the Ballymore without the cashout option.

Will cover him for this as really like the horse though and 25/1 with cashout seems a no brainer. Absolutely bucket loads of stamina in his breeding though so this could be a really good option for him.
 
I message sky bet to see if they could request a price for El Barra who came 2nd to Fury Road in his PTP. They said El Barra odds should be up soon guys.
 
I really try to avoid this race with ante, find it a mess with the value usually coming on the day, with a similar bad record to what Kev posted the other day. However that being said I do like Thyme Hill and find myself being tempted in back that as I think he will excel over the longer trip, and I do like a horse with one of the less sexier owners and trainers for this race.
 
Gordon Elliott has had shorties I; this over the years, usually Gigginstown, a Fury Road looks to fit the bill this year at 20/1. This would be my only selection for their race to date, it’s not a race to go big on,
 
He's the obvious one at this stage Hamptonfox, but very early days and as you say Elliot has had shorties beat. Wouldn't bother too much with it antepost as its been won by bigger prices generally.....Add to that he could even show up in the Ballymore! Big enough price i guess though, but if you've read Jono's Dossier he kindly sent me, the PTP expert on it wouldn't have been too kind about Meades Fury Road beat albeit, very well.
 
Trying to make case for a different thought

Think the standard in this race is improving rapidly .....and shortish price horses have been close recently. Minella Indo looks top horse just over priced on day

With all money now being invested into horses by top owners, more and more good horses will go here

So, might be a race to do ante post more going forwards?

Personally, done a few already....incl Fury Road

Can always add a few long shots on day on exchange.....I got about 60s on MI last year with small bet
 
Kevloaf said:
Not going to be adding a lot to the conversation with this point, but I will not be backing this race ante post.

2011 - backed the winner, Bobs Worth, on the day (before I was doing ante post)
2012 - backed two losers on the day
2013 - backed the winner, At Fishers Cross, on the day.
2014 - backed a loser on the day, Briar Hill
2015 - backed the winner, Martello Tower on 7th March (Matt Tombs tipped "ante post") on oddschecker, also backed a loser on day.
2016 - backed 5 ante post (Barters Hill, Shantou Village, Ganger, West Approach, Long Dog) - no returns
2017 - backed 9 ante post, 4 non runners and had Monalee place, with Death Duty, Augusta Kate, The Worlds End and Wholestone as ante post losers
2018 - backed 5 non runners, and 8 losers in the race (with Santini placing e/w)
2019 - backed the field (almost) ante post at bigger than SP, leaving me to cover all bar 2 horses on the day to create a green book... and inexplicably left off Minella Indo as I was sure Allaho had that covered. a 26 pt loss overall for that race this year.



That to me, shows me that I can't get this race right ante post. Now you may read that and think I don't know what I'm doing :p which might be true, but I do alright over the other 26 races (the bumper the other notable atrocious ante post race for me).



I've had some nice prices going in to the day, but they always come up short.



Fck this race ante post.
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I reached the same conclusion last year. Zero interest till final decs as its a race I have done terribly in AP.

PS. I tried replying to your PM but your inbox is full.
 
TigerRolllllll said:
Trying to make case for a different thought

Think the standard in this race is improving rapidly .....and shortish price horses have been close recently. Minella Indo looks top horse just over priced on day

With all money now being invested into horses by top owners, more and more good horses will go here

So, might be a race to do ante post more going forwards?

Personally, done a few already....incl Fury Road

Can always add a few long shots on day on exchange.....I got about 60s on MI last year with small bet
Click to expand...

He'd been beaten in a maiden and g3 both quite easily too. Fair play to you, but on the evidence known beforehand he was by no means an obvious overpriced horse.
 
jack1092 said:
He's the obvious one at this stage Hamptonfox, but very early days and as you say Elliot has had shorties beat. Wouldn't bother too much with it antepost as its been won by bigger prices generally.....Add to that he could even show up in the Ballymore! Big enough price i guess though, but if you've read Jono's Dossier he kindly sent me, the PTP expert on it wouldn't have been too kind about Meades Fury Road beat albeit, very well.
Click to expand...

Jonthehammer and jono aren't the same guy, don't give jono credit where it isn't due, his heads big enough.





I caught up on the Ballymore thread before this where jackie has posted the comments on Thyme Hill, first thing I did was check the odds and put him on my "tempters" section.... after reading this I'm more tempted (I must be half sheep) .... although 25/1 is without cashout.... can probably hold on until he gets an entry and hopefully back him in running perhaps.
 
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