2026 Stayers Hurdle

[kinloch brae]

I think Kabral Du Mathan has a right chance in this anyway. The Skeltons were looking at this race the wrong way for me. If they amble around like they did last year, Kabral could easily be the fastest horse in a finish. It's well worth chancing their arm.

I think all his arguments for not running don't stand up, but nobody is challenging him. Prior to the Relkeel, Maddy Playle put the horse up on the Racing Post site at 20/1 for the Stayers. That was on the basis of Skelton's positive comments about going for the Stayers. Has she called him out? Of course not. Media just happy to feed off a few crumbs he might offer them through the season. Never rock the boat.

If he runs then he has a much better idea of what sort of horse he has for next year. Running over a shorter trip at Aintree won't tell him whether he has a Stayers Hurdle horse. The other thing to consider is his run style. He isn't going to go bombing off on the front end, and clearly if it isn't going to plan then the jock can mind him. It's not a style I like, but the vast majority of their horses are just ridden to get competitive at the business end.

It's the messing about that's the issue, saying one thing, and then saying the complete opposite shortly afterwards. It does look like he is playing games. If it was just about prize money then he would be running. At some stage he is going to say the horse won't run. He could do that now, but clearly he is intent on extending the saga.

 

[Prestbury]

I think all his arguments for not running don't stand up, but nobody is challenging him. Prior to the Relkeel, Maddy Playle put the horse up on the Racing Post site at 20/1 for the Stayers. That was on the basis of Skelton's positive comments about going for the Stayers. Has she called him out? Of Course not. Media just happy to feed off a few crumbs he might offer them through the season. Never rock the boat.

If he runs then he has a much better idea of what sort of horse he has for next year. Running over a shorter trip at Aintree won't tell him whether he has a Stayers Hurdle horse. The other thing to consider is his run style. He isn't going to go bombing off on the front end, and clearly if it isn't going to plan then the jock can mind him. It's not a style I like, but the vast majority of their horses are just ridden to get competitive at the business end.

It's the messing about that's the issue, saying one thing, and then saying the complete opposite shortly afterwards. It does look like he is playing games. If it was just about prize money then he would be running. At some stage he is going to say the horse won't run. He could do that now, but clearly he is intent on extending the saga.

I may be in the minority but I have a fair bit of sympathy for trainers in regards to targets. There is no need to make a decision on targets until the declaration stage and if it was me I would want to wait until the latest possible moment so I had all of the available info - horses wellbeing, ground conditions, likely opposition etc... However, they are constantly asked for specifics on future targets (often amidst the euphoria of a good win/performance) and often feel compelled to say something which I am sure they genuinely mean at the time (or at least haven't thought about in depth or discussed with jockey/owners) but often when reflected upon at leisure they change their opinions on.

The one thing that seems clear on Kabral Du Mathan is that the stable have some degree of doubt about the horse being ready (whether that's mentally or on stamina grounds) for a grade 1 championship race over 3m. I am fairly certain that if there was a "Ryanair equivalent" for the hurdlers over 2.5m then KDM would definitely be running. As it is they only have the stayers hurdle as an option and its not a clearcut decision hence the oscillating between yes/no/maybe. I can't say I'm a big fan of Skelton but I don't see any benefits to "playing games" in this specific scenario - I just get the impression that they are genuinely conflicted (maybe I'm too generous!). In an ideal world trainers would always know the right targets and communicate them in plenty of time to the public but we don't live in an ideal world unfortunately...

The last thing I would add is that the media rarely questions why a trainer has changed its mind. It would I suspect be illuminating for the public to understand the thought processes behind what are often difficult decisions if anyone dared to ask.

 

[kinloch brae]

I may be in the minority but I have a fair bit of sympathy for trainers in regards to targets. There is no need to make a decision on targets until the declaration stage and if it was me I would want to wait until the latest possible moment so I had all of the available info - horses wellbeing, ground conditions, likely opposition etc... However, they are constantly asked for specifics on future targets (often amidst the euphoria of a good win/performance) and often feel compelled to say something which I am sure they genuinely mean at the time (or at least haven't thought about in depth or discussed with jockey/owners) but often when reflected upon at leisure they change their opinions on.

The one thing that seems clear on Kabral Du Mathan is that the stable have some degree of doubt about the horse being ready (whether that's mentally or on stamina grounds) for a grade 1 championship race over 3m. I am fairly certain that if there was a "Ryanair equivalent" for the hurdlers over 2.5m then KDM would definitely be running. As it is they only have the stayers hurdle as an option and its not a clearcut decision hence the oscillating between yes/no/maybe. I can't say I'm a big fan of Skelton but I don't see any benefits to "playing games" in this specific scenario - I just get the impression that they are genuinely conflicted (maybe I'm too generous!). In an ideal world trainers would always know the right targets and communicate them in plenty of time to the public but we don't live in an ideal world unfortunately...

The last thing I would add is that the media rarely questions why a trainer has changed its mind. It would I suspect be illuminating for the public to understand the thought processes behind what are often difficult decisions if anyone dared to ask.

The media rarely question anything at all, at least where trainers and jockeys are concerned. Cheerleaders only. It seems ridiculous that there is an idea that nobody will speak to them again, or there will be a court case around the corner.

If you take what you have said at face value then every one of these stable tours would be pointless. Mullins aside, will/should have a idea which way they are leaning, particularly with the Graded horses. I think punters should be able to accept injuries and factors like changing conditions. In this instance I can't see any conflictions. There isn't an intermediate, and never has been, so it isn't relevant. If they were prepared to try three miles at Haydock then I believe it is perfectly reasonable to try three miles at Cheltenham. There is no logic to going up in trip, and then back down in trip. You won't know whether he stays until you try, and as I have argued, his age could easily be an asset, not a negative. I can't see any negatives to running. These are the points the media should be hitting him with, and seeing what he can come up with in response. I suspect nothing.

 

[riccirich]

I might be wrong but did skelton not say something yesterday about not wanting to run kabral over three miles until Aintree?

I though he was going for the two and a half mile race there, but if he did that would make the stayers hurdle situation a bit stranger again, as if he's planning on running him over three miles anyway a few weeks later, then what's the big deal about running in the stayers.

I've tried to find the comment and can't so I may be misremembering something, but I thought that's what he said.

 

[Prestbury]

The media rarely question anything at all, at least where trainers and jockeys are concerned. Cheerleaders only. It seems ridiculous that there is an idea that nobody will speak to them again, or there will be a court case around the corner.

If you take what you have said at face value then every one of these stable tours would be pointless. Mullins aside, will/should have a idea which way they are leaning, particularly with the Graded horses. I think punters should be able to accept injuries and factors like changing conditions. In this instance I can't see any conflictions. There isn't an intermediate, and never has been, so it isn't relevant. If they were prepared to try three miles at Haydock then I believe it is perfectly reasonable to try three miles at Cheltenham. There is no logic to going up in trip, and then back down in trip. You won't know whether he stays until you try, and as I have argued, his age could easily be an asset, not a negative. I can't see any negatives to running. These are the points the media should be hitting him with, and seeing what he can come up with in response. I suspect nothing.

Most of the stable tours are pointless We are 3 weeks away and Mullins has luckily for us narrowed down the options for Sortudo to the Supreme, the Turners or the Albert Bartlett

My take on the KDM situation fwiw is that Skelton thinks the horse will win at Aintree but he's not so convinced the horse will win at Cheltenham (on stamina grounds?). However, the risk is that if he runs at Cheltenham and gets beat that a hard race takes too much out of him and he's not at his best and also loses at Aintree. So, does he take the Aintree race, a grade 1 and nice prize money or does he get greedy and try to do both but potentially scupper the Aintree prize and end with nothing. I think if the 2.5miler were at Cheltenham and the 3miler at Aintree then this would be no discussion.

 

[kinloch brae]

Most of the stable tours are pointless We are 3 weeks away and Mullins has luckily for us narrowed down the options for Sortudo to the Supreme, the Turners or the Albert Bartlett

My take on the KDM situation fwiw is that Skelton thinks the horse will win at Aintree but he's not so convinced the horse will win at Cheltenham (on stamina grounds?). However, the risk is that if he runs at Cheltenham and gets beat that a hard race takes too much out of him and he's not at his best and also loses at Aintree. So, does he take the Aintree race, a grade 1 and nice prize money or does he get greedy and try to do both but potentially scupper the Aintree prize and end with nothing. I think if the 2.5miler were at Cheltenham and the 3miler at Aintree then this would be no discussion.

Mullins is on a different planet to everyone else. Yes, he has more good horses, but I think he is now almost playing to a reputation. A reputation to confuse.

National hunt horses should be there to compete, or at least that's what should happen. They are not stallion prospects. There shouldn't be a massive fear about losing. Yes, he could lose at Cheltenham (I have already covered the hard race bit), but on the positive side - which I think the trainer should always be concentrating on - he could go from promising horse to the best staying hurdler, and set up multiple victories in a weak division. Whatever Skelton thinks, he is no good thing at Aintree. He doesn't even know the opposition, but he should know that the opposition in the Stayers is relatively weak.

 

[Prestbury]

Mullins is on a different planet to everyone else. Yes, he has more good horses, but I think he is now almost playing to a reputation. A reputation to confuse.

National hunt horses should be there to compete, or at least that's what should happen. They are not stallion prospects. There shouldn't be a massive fear about losing. Yes, he could lose at Cheltenham (I have already covered the hard race bit), but on the positive side - which I think the trainer should always be concentrating on - he could go from promising horse to the best staying hurdler, and set up multiple victories in a weak division. Whatever Skelton thinks, he is no good thing at Aintree. He doesn't even know the opposition, but he should know that the opposition in the Stayers is relatively weak.

We are singing from the same hymn sheet on horses competing! I think that this is definitely one horse who is being affected by the trainers title issue.

 

[riccirich]

Dan Skelton on Kabral Du Mathan - make of it what you will as to whether he will do a U-Turn and run in the Stayers...Kabral Du Mathan has had a great year for us, winning two so far. I was going to go to the National Spirit at Fontwell next Sunday, but I fear the ground could be heavy there and I don’t want to do that to him. We were trying to avoid three miles until Aintree, but this race looks an appropriate spot on pretty acceptable ground so that is why we are here. I have been so happy with what he has done all year, and he looks in great form at home. He carries leading numbers into this, and he is the rightful favourite. I would like to see him get the trip now and I think it’s no problem for him. He is an exciting horse to have. We still hold the Cheltenham entry, but we are looking at this race first.

That's the tweet I saw yesterday from moray smithI thought kabral was going for the two and a half at Aintree, but in that it sounds like they're targeting the three miler. So the stayers at Cheltenham over three miles might be too far too soon, but the stayers at Aintree weeks later would be fine? I know its a slightly less demanding track but seems like splitting hairs.

 

[Ellisgittings]

Dan Skelton on Kabral Du Mathan - make of it what you will as to whether he will do a U-Turn and run in the Stayers...Kabral Du Mathan has had a great year for us, winning two so far. I was going to go to the National Spirit at Fontwell next Sunday, but I fear the ground could be heavy there and I don’t want to do that to him. We were trying to avoid three miles until Aintree, but this race looks an appropriate spot on pretty acceptable ground so that is why we are here. I have been so happy with what he has done all year, and he looks in great form at home. He carries leading numbers into this, and he is the rightful favourite. I would like to see him get the trip now and I think it’s no problem for him. He is an exciting horse to have. We still hold the Cheltenham entry, but we are looking at this race first.

That's the tweet I saw yesterday from moray smithI thought kabral was going for the two and a half at Aintree, but in that it sounds like they're targeting the three miler. So the stayers at Cheltenham over three miles might be too far too soon, but the stayers at Aintree weeks later would be fine? I know its a slightly less demanding track but seems like splitting hairs.

It's all pretty simple, he'll run him where he can to dodge the big boys and pick up extra prize money. The rest of it is smoke and mirrors and a load of bluster. He cba sending him to Chelt against the big boys over 3m where he's worried he might not stay and bottom out his season. Wouldn't be my approach but he's desperate for a trainers title so I also don't blame him

 

[kinloch brae]

Personally, I don't think he has ever had any intention of running. Must be the only person on the planet who doesn't realise it's a weak division. See Ma Shantou 50/1-7/1.

 

[punterorplonker]

Jeez... Just looking at o.checker tonight and realising this could cut up quite a bit.
I'm wondering if something silly like doddie at 50/1 could be worth a nibble

 

[Ellisgittings]

Jeez... Just looking at o.checker tonight and realising this could cut up quite a bit.
I'm wondering if something silly like doddie at 50/1 could be worth a nibble

Not sure as much as you'd think. Of those shorter than 25s you can only see Kabral and Ballyburn not running (with the formers price factored in already to some extent), so prices won't adjust loads, and you'll get more than 8 runners for EW places on the day. Not a bad shout for on the day, but you're better off waiting now imo

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Kabral not declared for Fontwell yet in the National Spirit, but Nurse Susan has been and Harry jocked up.

 

[Black Dog]

It's all pretty simple, he'll run him where he can to dodge the big boys and pick up extra prize money. The rest of it is smoke and mirrors and a load of bluster. He cba sending him to Chelt against the big boys over 3m where he's worried he might not stay and bottom out his season. Wouldn't be my approach but he's desperate for a trainers title so I also don't blame him

He sees running KDM in the Stayers as detrimental for his future as he's only a 6yo. And yet he's running a couple of 4yo fillies in the Mares Novice Hurdle and the Bumper ffs. Some French breds are precocious and some ain't.

 

[punterorplonker]

So just checked the fontwell race thats interesting. Im a big big followers of nurse susan, he purposely kept the cheltenham plans super open. What would a poor run in the national spirit do , give her a great handicap mark for the handicaps ? Super interesting

 

[Ellisgittings]

He sees running KDM in the Stayers as detrimental for his future as he's only a 6yo. And yet he's running a couple of 4yo fillies in the Mares Novice Hurdle and the Bumper ffs. Some French breds are precocious and some ain't.

I don't think he sees it that way to be honest - I think he's picking and choosing the train of thought depending on whether it suits his agenda

 

[Brooker17]

Does anyone know what the situation with Ballyburn is for the Stayers?
Is the plan still to race here or go to Aintree instead?

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Does anyone know what the situation with Ballyburn is for the Stayers?
Is the plan still to race here or go to Aintree instead?

Not sure if the plan but his price has held on the exchanges at around 20-25s, which suggests they haven't totally dismissed the idea of running. 12/1 NRNB is very fair imo.

His last run was awful but i think a line can easily be put through it, he's definitely better than that performance.

 

[Benjy23]

If they're not running Lossie, then I reckon chucking him in the Champion Hurdle and trying to go from the front would be a better option. But it won't happen so it's a bit of a pointless thought Does have the Champion Hurdle entry still though...

 

[Craigy14]

He’ll be going to Aintree for 2m4f race imo.