2026 Ryanair Chase

[Quevega]

Nearly as irrational as a pundit (can't remember who) who dismissed Talk the Talk for the supreme as normally "horses with four white socks aren't good jumpers".
He had no stats to back that up.

In actual fact there could be something in this, but I doubt it.
Maybe someone could look into it

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Do you back each way CAT out of interest? Reason I ask is imo of course, you’re playing for 2 places as he won’t win. So at 16/1 take away your win part you’re essentially getting 6/4ish (maybe a little bigger) for 2 places (hope that maths is close to being correct ).

Official ratings tell you he’s regressing as well though? Add to that he’s never lost on seasonal debut, he’s now lost 2 on the spin. He’s clearly not the same animal at Cheltenham imo but I can also say he’s come up against a couple of beasts in his 2 novice visits. Then you have the 2 champion chases where he should have won at least 1 if he was at his best (the other pulled due to stable issue) which he just isn’t at Cheltenham.

I’m basically a win backer normally, but antepost at big odds I will go e/w and the handicaps too on the actual week of the festival.
With regards Jonbon, I’ve backed him early doors antepost for the festival always beat the book and helped me get in a position to back one or two against him.
Other races I just watch cos he’s normally too short odds for me.
This time I’ve backed him to win @ 16.
But I ain’t broke the bank!!
Just think he will run a big race.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

CAT.
The dislike is because this is a cheltenham antepost forum and he loses everytime he turns up, after looking good everywhere else all season and nearly always a short price.

If anyone on here dislikes him because of who his horse brother is, then they are as mental as you are suggesting it.

Probably up there now with one of my favourite posts ever on here.

But people disliked him pretty much from his very early days it seemed to me, and I used to read stuff about him and Douvan then.
Maybe I got it wrong and it is a bit mental, but I could not think of any other reason for not liking a horse that’s so consistent in his results.
I think though your points re the festival forum bit, short price, don’t win etc though are things I should have taken more notice of in that regard of the dislike bit.
And Craigy summed that up well to
Be honest.

Apologies for distracting away from the thread.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Nearly as irrational as a pundit (can't remember who) who dismissed Talk the Talk for the supreme as normally "horses with four white socks aren't good jumpers".
He had no stats to back that up.

In actual fact there could be something in this, but I doubt it.
Maybe someone could look into it

That weren’t me , at least I don’t think so

 

[Quevega]

But people disliked him pretty much from his very early days it seemed to me, and I used to read stuff about him and Douvan then.
Maybe I got it wrong and it is a bit mental, but I could not think of any other reason for not liking a horse that’s so consistent in his results.
I think though your points re the festival forum bit, short price, don’t win etc though are things I should have taken more notice of in that regard of the dislike bit.
And Craigy summed that up well to
Be honest.

Apologies for distracting away from the thread.

Don't apologise mate.
It's why I come on here so often.

 

[archie]

Nearly as irrational as a pundit (can't remember who) who dismissed Talk the Talk for the supreme as normally "horses with four white socks aren't good jumpers".
He had no stats to back that up.

In actual fact there could be something in this, but I doubt it.
Maybe someone could look into it

I heard it many years ago and it's actually a long standing saying among horsey people that 4 white socks is unlucky (whereas 3 is a positive). Not just in racing and not just in the UK. No idea why it should be and it certainly wouldn't put me off if everything else was right.

 

[Quevega]

I heard it many years ago and it's actually a long standing saying among horsey people that 4 white socks is unlucky (whereas 3 is a positive). Not just in racing and not just in the UK. No idea why it should be and it certainly wouldn't put me off if everything else was right.

You made me google it, I found this really good piece about it, along with a bit of Stevie Wonder genius.

Loading…

www.saddlebox.net

 

[Lobos]

Knock Talk the Talk on the head then !

 

[Quevega]

I think Grey Dawning is a serious live one for this race.

I expect the current feeling in the yard is that he's going to have a go in the Gold cup.
And we know full well, that like many yards, they are not averse to changing tack.

I also expect that if he wins his prep race well enough that they'll likely head that way.
I'll be watching the cotswold entries when they come out on Monday.

But if they think his betfair chase win puts him in the Gold cup picture then I think they're mistaken. I don;t actually think his win this year was much of an improvement on the previous season when he got beat by the pig. Just that the jockey learnt to time his run better, and the ground was a bit better, so class was favoured a bit more.

So it really will depend on his next outing.

The reason I think they'll take any chance to opt out is because of how hot the Gold cup looks. It looks a very deep competitive race and if most stand their ground then the Ryanair would look a better option to pick up a win or place money.

He would be a very close second Fav if he did line up and he is priced at 20-1.
I'd be quite confident over the ryaniar trip he'd beat most in the ryanair list at the minute bar fact to file and there are reasons to believe he could be vulnerable this season.

I have already been tempted to back him as he's been layed consistently at 75's on the exchange.

But possibly the best option for anyone wanting him onside will be the related double, using his main rival in the cotswold chase (assuming he's entered)

Similar tactics may be advisable when we know the Irish Gold cup lineup.

 

[Liammet]

You made me google it, I found this really good piece about it, along with a bit of Stevie Wonder genius.

Loading…

www.saddlebox.net

I remember hearing years ago from a pundit on tv ( can’t remember who ) but might of been Francome

He said “ four white feet spells defeat “
Always stuck with me

 

[Benjy23]

I think Grey Dawning is a serious live one for this race.

I expect the current feeling in the yard is that he's going to have a go in the Gold cup.
And we know full well, that like many yards, they are not averse to changing tack.

I also expect that if he wins his prep race well enough that they'll likely head that way.
I'll be watching the cotswold entries when they come out on Monday.

But if they think his betfair chase win puts him in the Gold cup picture then I think they're mistaken. I don;t actually think his win this year was much of an improvement on the previous season when he got beat by the pig. Just that the jockey learnt to time his run better, and the ground was a bit better, so class was favoured a bit more.

So it really will depend on his next outing.

The reason I think they'll take any chance to opt out is because of how hot the Gold cup looks. It looks a very deep competitive race and if most stand their ground then the Ryanair would look a better option to pick up a win or place money.

He would be a very close second Fav if he did line up and he is priced at 20-1.
I'd be quite confident over the ryaniar trip he'd beat most in the ryanair list at the minute bar fact to file and there are reasons to believe he could be vulnerable this season.

I have already been tempted to back him as he's been layed consistently at 75's on the exchange.

But the best option for anyone wanting him onside will be the related double, using his main rival in the cotswold chase (assuming he's entered)

Similar tactics may be advisable when we know the Irish Gold cup lineup.

Don't disagree he'd be the second best in the field if lining up but...

How's the related double actually going to be better than the exchange single here?

 

[Quevega]

Don't disagree he'd be the second best in the field if lining up but...

How's the related double actually going to be better than the exchange single here?

It's not necessarily, just depends how people want to play it.

Calculating the comparable odds is not possible at the minute as we don't know his next race or rival/rivals.
But at 20-1 for the ryanair the first leg would only need to be 5/2 to get similar odds (75's). Obviously he could get stuffed and drift for the ryanair also.
I'll probably do the double as well though depending on the above.
All comes with risks.


Ps, I'm due to get one of these wrong having nailed it with similar thought processes with the last three winners.
All were 50's or above on betfair at some point.

Also there is every chance the Cotswold, if he does enter up there, is a weak race, but we'll see soon enough.

 

[Benjy23]

I assume you've already taken the exchange option but that has to be better, right?

Getting similar odds for a double as you can get on a single (for one leg of the double) can't make sense? Even if your Cotswold bet is 5/1 I struggle to see the angle that the double is actually a better bet, even with higher returns.

I'd say he's at best probably about 4/1 on the day in the Ryanair with current expected runners, so you're getting around 14s on him showing up with the exchange price. Which is probably about a fair representation of how likely he is to run.

They'll have Protektorat for the Ryanair, after he wins tomorrow. Who'll be challenging for the places again in a Ryanair I'd imagine. And they've got Panic Attack as an option if they did want to have a swing at the Ryanair.

In a wide open Gold Cup year I can't see them ducking it with Grey Dawning. Which is where the Cotswold result becomes relevant, just not the bet imo. I expect he'll get the entry in the Cotswold.

Maybe I'm missing something.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

I think Grey Dawning is a serious live one for this race.

I expect the current feeling in the yard is that he's going to have a go in the Gold cup.
And we know full well, that like many yards, they are not averse to changing tack.

I also expect that if he wins his prep race well enough that they'll likely head that way.
I'll be watching the cotswold entries when they come out on Monday.

But if they think his betfair chase win puts him in the Gold cup picture then I think they're mistaken. I don;t actually think his win this year was much of an improvement on the previous season when he got beat by the pig. Just that the jockey learnt to time his run better, and the ground was a bit better, so class was favoured a bit more.

So it really will depend on his next outing.

The reason I think they'll take any chance to opt out is because of how hot the Gold cup looks. It looks a very deep competitive race and if most stand their ground then the Ryanair would look a better option to pick up a win or place money.

He would be a very close second Fav if he did line up and he is priced at 20-1.
I'd be quite confident over the ryaniar trip he'd beat most in the ryanair list at the minute bar fact to file and there are reasons to believe he could be vulnerable this season.

I have already been tempted to back him as he's been layed consistently at 75's on the exchange.

But the best option for anyone wanting him onside will be the related double, using his main rival in the cotswold chase (assuming he's entered)

Similar tactics may be advisable when we know the Irish Gold cup lineup.

Currently around 80 on ex
Agree with your assessment on the Haydock races
Makes sense to risk at those odds imo
Fair shout that

 

[Quevega]

I assume you've already taken the exchange option but that has to be better, right?

Getting similar odds for a double as you can get on a single (for one leg of the double) can't make sense? Even if your Cotswold bet is 5/1 I struggle to see the angle that the double is actually a better bet, even with higher returns.

I'd say he's at best probably about 4/1 on the day in the Ryanair with current expected runners, so you're getting around 14s on him showing up with the exchange price. Which is probably about a fair representation of how likely he is to run.

They'll have Protektorat for the Ryanair, after he wins tomorrow. Who'll be challenging for the places again in a Ryanair I'd imagine. And they've got Panic Attack as an option if they did want to have a swing at the Ryanair.

In a wide open Gold Cup year I can't see them ducking it with Grey Dawning. Which is where the Cotswold result becomes relevant, just not the bet imo. I expect he'll get the entry in the Cotswold.

Maybe I'm missing something.

You may be right with the logic on his eventual race.
Although I'd personally doubt the mare would run here, and protektorat isn't getting any younger.
But odds are odds.
a 75-1 chance is the same as a 75-1 chance, whether it's a single or a multiple.

 

[Benjy23]

Aye, but you'd have the whole field (bar Grey Dawning) running for you in the Cotswold rather than just one horse against him.

I'll see if anyone matches my fiber at 120s

 

[Quevega]

Aye, but you'd have the whole field (bar Grey Dawning) running for you in the Cotswold rather than just one horse against him.

I'll see if anyone matches my fiber at 120s

Yes, of course.
Think that makes you correct.
I've changed my post and added possibly

 

[Runragged]

I think Grey Dawning is a serious live one for this race.

I expect the current feeling in the yard is that he's going to have a go in the Gold cup.
And we know full well, that like many yards, they are not averse to changing tack.

I also expect that if he wins his prep race well enough that they'll likely head that way.
I'll be watching the cotswold entries when they come out on Monday.

But if they think his betfair chase win puts him in the Gold cup picture then I think they're mistaken. I don;t actually think his win this year was much of an improvement on the previous season when he got beat by the pig. Just that the jockey learnt to time his run better, and the ground was a bit better, so class was favoured a bit more.

So it really will depend on his next outing.

The reason I think they'll take any chance to opt out is because of how hot the Gold cup looks. It looks a very deep competitive race and if most stand their ground then the Ryanair would look a better option to pick up a win or place money.

He would be a very close second Fav if he did line up and he is priced at 20-1.
I'd be quite confident over the ryaniar trip he'd beat most in the ryanair list at the minute bar fact to file and there are reasons to believe he could be vulnerable this season.

I have already been tempted to back him as he's been layed consistently at 75's on the exchange.

But possibly the best option for anyone wanting him onside will be the related double, using his main rival in the cotswold chase (assuming he's entered)

Similar tactics may be advisable when we know the Irish Gold cup lineup.

Not sure why they would switch to 2 1/2m with a horse who stays 3m+ well? Considering they tend to go a good gallop in the Ryanair then Grey Dawning would struggle to hold his position I feel. It's an open Gold Cup this year as there is no standout class horse if you consider how close the horses were in the King George and an ageing GDC. This is a fantastic opportunity for Skelton and connections to win a Gold Cup and I can't see them turning it down.

 

[Quevega]

Not sure why they would switch to 2 1/2m with a horse who stays 3m+ well? Considering they tend to go a good gallop in the Ryanair then Grey Dawning would struggle to hold his position I feel. It's an open Gold Cup this year as there is no standout class horse if you consider how close the horses were in the King George and an ageing GDC. This is a fantastic opportunity for Skelton and connections to win a Gold Cup and I can't see them turning it down.

we'll see

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Just opened a bottle of hophead, absolutely loved that, he’s still got some class for sure.
Won that through staying power though, outpaced and then stayed on.