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2026 Novice Hurdlers

Runragged said:
Here we go. Only 2 of the last 10 winners hadn't raced at less than 2 1/2m. That includes last years winner The New Lion though last year was an exception as none of the three leading principles had form at shorter. The other was Willoughby Court who beat Neon Wolf by a head, who was a grade 2 winner over two miles.

Of the 8 to have raced at 2m 3f or shorter, they had achieved a minimum RPR of 145. 6 of the 8 had won a grade 1 or 2 at shorter, with Bob Olinger 2nd to Ferny Hollow in a maiden at 2m though won the Lawlors over 2m 4f. City Island is the only winner in the last 10 years not to have won a grade 1 or 2 over hurdles.
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Yup

On recent trends you need a 2m-2m4f horse not a 2m4f-3m horse

Im sure that trend will break at some point but as it stands horses with grade 1 or grade 2 wins over shorter do exceptionally well in the turners

The 2 mile grade 1 winners have a very very high strike rate

Skylight hustle ticks all the boxes
Sober ticks most of them

Its an intruiging race, be interesting to see what runs
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Yup

On recent trends you need a 2m-2m4f horse not a 2m4f-3m horse

Im sure that trend will break at some point but as it stands horses with grade 1 or grade 2 wins over shorter do exceptionally well in the turners

The 2 mile grade 1 winners have a very very high strike rate

Skylight hustle ticks all the boxes
Sober ticks most of them

Its an intruiging race, be interesting to see what runs
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Talk The Talk already got 147 prior to yesterday. Come on JOB, see sense!
 
Runragged said:
Talk The Talk already got 147 prior to yesterday. Come on JOB, see sense!
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Since im on him for the supreme and skylight the turners plus the related double i hope not

Hed win though wouldnt he, if he settles.
 
Willie was keen to emphasise that Dr S was very good "at the trip" just then on RTV. I'd be 70/30 Bartlett at the moment.
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Since im on him for the supreme and skylight the turners plus the related double i hope not

Hed win though wouldnt he, if he settles.
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I re-watched the race yesterday and he settled ok, little bit keen but the early pace was slow and several others were keen also. Supreme is the most logical though he would have a real race against Old Park Star, or he could go Turners which looks a gimme for a horse with his turn of foot. At the end of the day we don't know how good that form was yesterday, beating KRG and Ballyfad by narrow margins. Inclined to think the form is average as opposed to being very good as there is more chance that is the case though not to say he wasn't impressive in his manner of victory.
 
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Runragged said:
I re-watched the race yesterday and he settled ok, little bit keen but the early pace was slow and several others were keen also. Supreme is the most logical though he would have a real race against Old Park Star, or he could go Turners which looks a gimme for a horse with his turn of foot. At the end of the day we don't know how good that form was yesterday, beating KRG and Ballyfad by narrow margins. Inclined to think the form is average as opposed to being very good as there is more chance that is the case though not to say he wasn't impressive in his manner of victory.
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Very possible that form isnt great given the ground and the way the race was run

given those two things id say TTT is a lot better than the 2nd and 3rd who will have been flattered by the proximity
 
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FinalFurlong91 said:
Very possible that form isnt great given the ground and the way the race was run

given those two things id say TTT is a lot better than the 2nd and 3rd who will have been flattered by the proximity
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He is definitely the one to take from the race.
 
Has there been more said on ballyfad's target? He's a long way shorter for the Turners than Supreme on betfair exchange, so just wondering if I missed an update?!
 
He said supreme the day before.
Gypsy fucking pipe bomber.
 
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I shouldn't have reacted to his comments yesterday. Annoyed with myself

I'm going to have to cover him if he turns up
 
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Faugheen_Machine said:
I shouldn't have reacted to his comments yesterday. Annoyed with myself

I'm going to have to cover him if he turns up
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I'm in same boat although it was only a 1pt bet at 25-1 I cashed for nearly 1pt profit.
I'll sit it out with him as he's probably not a winner in waiting IMO, so wait and see how each race shapes up.

Any gypsy pipe bombers out there, I was only joking.
It was a Love Hate reference.
 
Also cashed. Including a couple of doubles. Gone a bit ruthless with the cashing the last couple of days, as I'd too many novices backed, as many seem to this year. Typical to cash out the wrong one. Might have to work a way to get him back onside. Tough to see what runs in the Turners currently but the 2nd and 3rd from yesterday be top of my list if they did.

Had a look for Proactif in the Supreme. Must be a chance he goes, as has the entry and JP and Willie have Narciso for Triumph. But 10/1 NRNB in what looks a decent Supreme doesn't hold too much appeal.
 
Place De La Nation day tomorrow. Well probably not but here's hoping. If she wins then at least I can convince myself she beats the fav on a basic formline!
 
Alot of unknowns in the turners and looks the far easier race for Doctor Steinberg in the AB.
 
Trainers really don't help themselves when it comes to talking Festival targets. For horses like Talk The Talk, Ballyfad, King Rasko, Doctor Steinberg etc... the best response is to say that there is no decision to be made today and so we will wait till nearer the time to assess going, likely field etc... Why make a call today with incomplete info when you don't have to?
 
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Prestbury said:
Trainers really don't help themselves when it comes to talking Festival targets. For horses like Talk The Talk, Ballyfad, King Rasko, Doctor Steinberg etc... the best response is to say that there is no decision to be made today and so we will wait till nearer the time to assess going, likely field etc... Why make a call today with incomplete info when you don't have to?
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Yeah I get the feeling willie himself is getting tired of being asked about future targets, and everyone complaining when he changes his mind. Was put to him today that steinberg is now fave for the bartlett and he just paused for a bit then said "he does everything right". He clearly doesn't do everything right since he was free the whole way, was just a generic statement to bat away the question. The topic of lossiemouth was then brought up and he looked to give a slight sigh as if he was thinking "here we go again, champion or mares".
 
Prestbury said:
Trainers really don't help themselves when it comes to talking Festival targets.
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I have sympathy for trainers here, not only is there a never ending media scrum (including social media) for information but I think the problem now is the greater number of options they have compared to 20 or so years ago.
The Fred Winter, A Bartlett, Ryanair, Jack Richards, Mares Hurdle, Mares Novice, Mares Chase never existed, predicting where a horse went was an easier task….
 
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