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2025 Stayers Hurdle

Champ Kiely?
 
I do wonder if Crambo represents some value at 66/1. If you paused his career pre Cheltenham, its reads well. He won comfortably on debut at Aintree and would have won at Haydock were it not from a poor ride where he was giving a stone to a couple of Irish raiders, but he stayed on well and probably would have won in another 100 yards carrying near enough top weight. He then went and won the Long Walk hurdle as a 6yo so I am looking at him thinking he should be 3/3. If you look at the Stayers market I think there are only 4 British trained horses ahead of him that are likely to stay in the division and I can envisage a scenario where he rises to the fore on this side of the Irish Sea and shortens massively. In a market thats muddled that I'm not sure what to do with, I think a back to lay play could make a lot of sense and if you're a book builder I would absolutely be playing him that way (currently 75's on Betfair). The elephant in the room is the wheels came off at Cheltenham and Aintree which is why he's 66/1, so you need to able to forgive those runs and I appreciate that forgiving poor runs at big festivals is hard thing to do and not one that makes for particularly successful ante post punting, but forgiving poor runs with excuses can. I don't think he had any real excuse in the stayers. He went off 7/1 which was the shortest price of English trained challengers and finished 14L behind the winner. It was his first ever run at Cheltenham which makes me more forgiving, and I can forgive any horse at a massive price for bombing post Cheltenham providing they've ran to a high level pre-Cheltenham which I think he did because he should have been 3/3 and won a Grade 1 over 3m. The stayers is a race that does produce winners that have bombed or failed in previous years too, so all things considered a point at 75's might not be a terrible idea.
 
charlie said:
I do wonder if Crambo represents some value at 66/1. If you paused his career pre Cheltenham, its reads well. He won comfortably on debut at Aintree and would have won at Haydock were it not from a poor ride where he was giving a stone to a couple of Irish raiders, but he stayed on well and probably would have won in another 100 yards carrying near enough top weight. He then went and won the Long Walk hurdle as a 6yo so I am looking at him thinking he should be 3/3. If you look at the Stayers market I think there are only 4 British trained horses ahead of him that are likely to stay in the division and I can envisage a scenario where he rises to the fore on this side of the Irish Sea and shortens massively. In a market thats muddled that I'm not sure what to do with, I think a back to lay play could make a lot of sense and if you're a book builder I would absolutely be playing him that way (currently 75's on Betfair). The elephant in the room is the wheels came off at Cheltenham and Aintree which is why he's 66/1, so you need to able to forgive those runs and I appreciate that forgiving poor runs at big festivals is hard thing to do and not one that makes for particularly successful ante post punting, but forgiving poor runs with excuses can. I don't think he had any real excuse in the stayers. He went off 7/1 which was the shortest price of English trained challengers and finished 14L behind the winner. It was his first ever run at Cheltenham which makes me more forgiving, and I can forgive any horse at a massive price for bombing post Cheltenham providing they've ran to a high level pre-Cheltenham which I think he did because he should have been 3/3 and won a Grade 1 over 3m. The stayers is a race that does produce winners that have bombed or failed in previous years too, so all things considered a point at 75's might not be a terrible idea.
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I have got him in the book for some EW money. I saw no reason not to. He will most likely be aimed at the race, a year older and stronger and it's a race that lacks depth (at this stage) I thought it was a no brainer, especially if something were to happen to Teahupoo.
 
Crambo went off at 7/1 last year so at 66/1 he's surely worth an EW punt. Will only be 8 in March.
 
I'm finding myself swaying towards backing crambo myself now, you lot on here are very persuasive ! :biggrin-new:
 
Can see the interest in Crambo especially at the price but wouldn’t you have expected Fergal to mention that as the long term plan in his trainers section in OJA ?
It may not be a negative, but it does read they haven’t looked beyond the Long Walk….
 
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charlie said:
The play for me here is Irish Point @ 12/1. I think he'll stay hurdling. If I am right I can see that price halving, possibly worse so might take it now. Lots of pots to be won with him hurdling and we know Teahupoo will be campaigned sparingly which is good for the owners on both fronts. Little splits him on ratings with the fav. He's unexposed over a trip but has already won a Grade 1 over 3m emphatically. He's 6 going on 7 and I think we could see plenty of improvement from him. That run in the CH was a blinder over a trip too sharp and his run at Punchestown was even better. Unlike his stable mate, he's not ground dependent but has won over 3m on heavy. At 6 times the price of the fav and reigning champ, I just think he's the wrong price in what looks a piss weak market.
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I think he would only run if Teahupoo were injured and that's if he stays hurdling. Theleme looks to be missing the festival again and unless a very good novice from last year stays hurdling, Teahupoo has the beating of everything imo so not sure why Robcour would want to run 2 of their best against each other? Maybe that was the reason IP didn't run in the Stayers last year but I can't remember to be honest.
 
YoungHustler said:
I think he would only run if Teahupoo were injured and that's if he stays hurdling. Theleme looks to be missing the festival again and unless a very good novice from last year stays hurdling, Teahupoo has the beating of everything imo so not sure why Robcour would want to run 2 of their best against each other? Maybe that was the reason IP didn't run in the Stayers last year but I can't remember to be honest.
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Agree. Think he'll go chasing but if anything happens to Teahupoo then he has the option of switching. Same also if for whatever reason the Champion Hurdle cuts up badly like last year he could switch to that again.
 
TigerRolllllll said:
Raised this previously I think ….what do we think will be Willie’s dart(s) At this

Only ones that might have chance I can see in exchange list at mo….

High Class Hero - def of interest
Impaire Et Passe - said to be going fencing, but not impossible
Monkfish - was target owner wanted last season, but doubt good enough
saint Sam - not good enough ?

Any better ideas? Surely he will have something - prob 2-3
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I did think high class would be interesting for this too but then I found a quote from Willie after his listowel win last season, “whatever he does over hurdles, I’d expect him to be better over fences.” Given he’s already 7 I’d imagine he’ll go chasing unless anyone’s heard any different?
 
YoungHustler said:
I think he would only run if Teahupoo were injured and that's if he stays hurdling. Theleme looks to be missing the festival again and unless a very good novice from last year stays hurdling, Teahupoo has the beating of everything imo so not sure why Robcour would want to run 2 of their best against each other? Maybe that was the reason IP didn't run in the Stayers last year but I can't remember to be honest.
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I disagree. Connections waited a long time to taste success at Cheltenham and we're talking about a Grade 1 championship level race so I don't think they'd blink at firing two bullets at the race to give themselves the best possible chance of winning it. If the ground came up good Teahupoo might not even run whereas IP is ground versatile. I feel like we know how good Teahupoo is over 3m whereas IP is far more unexposed over that trip. IP could be better than Teahupoo for all we know. Also, we know the reigning champ will be campaigned sparingly and goes well fresh. I suspect they will let IP prove his worth over 3m by targeting races like the Christmas Hurdle and if he wins that like he did last year and shows improvement it will become very difficult for connections to avoid going to the stayers and we know GE has no problem firing more than one top bullet at a race.
 
Irish Point isn't the biggest, certainly lacks scope and size. Sometimes that doesn't matter so he could go chasing.
However as Teahupoo will only run in the Hattons Grace before Cheltenham, theres a handful of races Irish Point could target, in England and Ireland.
I'd keep him over hurdles and make his number 1 target at Aintree Hurdle over 2 and a half grade 1, Impaire Et Passe won it last April (just). Irish Point did win a grade 1 hurdle at Aintree as a novice, I think.
My thoughts anyway, could be worthwhile, voukd be rubbish
 
12-1 for Irish Point just seems skinny to me with the uncertainty of target at the moment.
He may stay hurdling or he may go chasing, that puts a lot of doubt in my mind to back him for any specific target now without a better price to compensate for that.
If he stays hurdling, his target could be the Champion Hurdle (like last year when connections chose not to fire both bullets at the Stayers), it could be the Stayers or it could even be Aintree after mopping up a few mid-distance Irish hurdle races during the winter.
The best chance with Irish Point in the Stayers must be something going wrong with Teahupoo, IP then becomes Stayers favourite. Without that, connections have to do something different this year to send both Teahupoo and IP to the Stayers and even then IP would have a strong favourite to beat.
IP looked very good at Leopardstown last Christmas (probably not a true stamina test to be properly relevant to the Stayers but promising nonetheless) and for the sake of sport I'd love to see him line up in the Stayers against Teahupoo as I think it would be a proper race.
For now though, I'd prefer plans to be clearer as I think the favourite continues to make the market for IP even if he was confirmed as staying hurdling. I'd like to add him into my Stayers Hurdle book but I can't bring myself to do it yet and may even have to wait for nrnb!
 
charlie said:
we're talking about a Grade 1 championship level race so I don't think they'd blink at firing two bullets at the race to give themselves the best possible chance of winning it.
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If this is the case, I can't understand why they wouldn't send Irish Point to the Stayers last year?

At the time, Teahupoo was favourite but (relatively) unknown having only won the Hattons Grace all season. Why would they not send IP there to back Teahupoo up before he established himself as comfortably the best stayer? Sending him to the Champion Hurdle against 7 time Grade 1 winning State Man having previously won a 3m Hurdle strikes as a harder task unless they think he doesn't stay the 3m properly (despite the 3m Hurdle win) and just wanted to chance their arm at some really good prize money?

Aintree Hurdle definitely the best option for him this year if he stays Hurdling as he won the Novices Hurdle over CD in 2023. You'd probably rather he took in the Champion Hurdle at the festival beforehand if that's the case as an owner, for all that it looks much harder this year.
 
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Studfarm254 said:
I did think high class would be interesting for this too but then I found a quote from Willie after his listowel win last season, “whatever he does over hurdles, I’d expect him to be better over fences.” Given he’s already 7 I’d imagine he’ll go chasing unless anyone’s heard any different?
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Think a lot of those quotes can be thrown out the window after the loss of the NHC and Turners. Think a few more than normal may stay Hurdling.
 
Since 2018 (when he won with Penhill - also won in 2017 with Nichols Canyon), Mullins has had 12 runners in the Stayers:

2024: Asterion Forlonge (6th), Janidil (11th), Sir Gerhard (12th)
2023: Klassical Dream (9th)
2022: Klassical Dream (5th)
2021: Barcadys (7th)
2020: Barcadys (3rd), Penhill (PU)
2019: Faugheen (3rd), Bapaume (4th), Bacardys (6th), Coquin Mans (17th)

Bolded horses hadn't won that year, Italicised horses were "failed chasers" that year.

Of these, it's only really plausible to think that Klassical Dream (injury problems), Barcadys (after a decent showing first year as a "failed chaser") and Penhill (injury problems after winning in 2018?) were targeted here. I can't see how any of those that ran last year (or Klassical Dream for that matter) are targeted specifically at this race next year, which I think is the conclusion we've all drawn.

Perhaps the more obvious conclusion to draw, despite the changes to the festival, is that Willie just doesn't generally bother with this race at the start of the year and we can just let it all play out without needing to worry about backing anything yet?
 
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Odin said:
If this is the case, I can't understand why they wouldn't send Irish Point to the Stayers last year?

At the time, Teahupoo was favourite but (relatively) unknown having only won the Hattons Grace all season. Why would they not send IP there to back Teahupoo up before he established himself as comfortably the best stayer? Sending him to the Champion Hurdle against 7 time Grade 1 winning State Man having previously won a 3m Hurdle strikes as a harder task unless they think he doesn't stay the 3m properly (despite the 3m Hurdle win) and just wanted to chance their arm at some really good prize money?

Aintree Hurdle definitely the best option for him this year if he stays Hurdling as he won the Novices Hurdle over CD in 2023. You'd probably rather he took in the Champion Hurdle at the festival beforehand if that's the case as an owner, for all that it looks much harder this year.
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I think thats easy to understand. With no Con Hill and just SM to beat connections had nothing to lose going CH. He was a viable contender who despite winning over 3m LTO, had spent most of his career being campaigned over the minimum trip, so there was no better time to have a crack at SM, especially with Teahupoo as a solid fav for the stayers. We now know with the benefit of hindsight that SM is a fundamentally better two miler, and with the Con Hill vibes strong and Lossiemouth the new name on the block, connections would be praying to hit the frame let alone win the CH, so going up in trip makes sense. He could win the stayers but he's not winning a CH.
 
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