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2025 Stayers Hurdle

charlie said:
What is the argument for IEP in the stayers? When connections said they would remain hurdling for a season they mentioned going novice chasing the following season so that would be a red flag for stayers bets IMO.

He started out over 2m3f then they came back to 2m for Moscow Flyer. Willie said he wanted to run him in the Supreme but that he had Facile Vega. Based on his Ballymore run I think he'd have beaten MN in a Supreme (don't think many would disagree). He started life in open company over 2m4f before dropping back to 2m with connections thinking he could potentially challenge CH, which is a big statement in itself. If he'd bombed out over 2m then I could perhaps see the stayers angle, but he lost little in defeat losing 3L to State Man IMO which was arguably the best we have seen from him. Connections have continually thought of him as speedy and I don't think 2m5f wins at Aintree or Sandown change that, or mean 3m at Cheltenham would suit him. We all know 3m at Cheltenham vs 2m5f is a world apart.

IEP is in that bracket where he was a very good 2 mile hurdler without being top drawer. Don't get me wrong, he may end up over 3m in time and do a Nichols Canyon, but I don't really see the point. If chasing doesn't work out then maybe he ends up here, but I don't think that will be the plan. He'll probably start at 2m and stay there until he's beaten. Yes, he's bred to stay so he could go up in trip, but, I think his career to date is the perfect launch pad for a crack at the Arkle. When GW won the G1 over 3m at the end of his hurdling career we were all talking about him being a potential BANC horse, I don't think many were thinking Arkle at all. GW races very differently to IEP and is all choke out, but, he ended up in the Arkle because of his raw speed and the ability to stay, which are the two qualities IEP has proven he has.

How much would IEP need to improve for a fence based on that Ballymore win or 3L second to State Man to be a real player in the 2m chase division? I don't think much at all and see no reason why they wont opt for the minimum trip over 2m over fences vs an unknown trip over staying over hurdles.
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It was more to do if he doesn't take to chasing, and what options connections have over fences. There is the potential for this to play out. Readin Tommy Wrong & It's For Me, the two obvious candidates.

I backed him early, at 33/1, which given the manner of his Ballymore win (won going away over 2m5f) was more than fair should this play out. He's not a whole heap of form behind Teahupoo either and he won the Stayers well last season, so if he did end up there it would be with a very live chance.

Like I said, I've also backed him for both novice chase options as well. I want him and Ballyburn onside wherever the pair of them end up. I'm hoping I'll have time to cash out one or two bets should the destination of the pair look obvious, but it's not a necessity, as the stakes are not going to make or break my festival.

I'm not sure why Gaelic Warrior has been brought into the equation, if anything it goes to show that the obvious (him being a BANC horse according to Patrick & this forum) is not always the case. Therefore anything can happen with IEP. Just because he was campaigned as a Champion Hurdle horse, doesn't mean that's the route they'll go down again (trip or otherwise).

On the subject of Gaelic Warrior, I think IEP travels a whole heap better than him, therefore able to get a trip.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
It was more to do if he doesn't take to chasing, and what options connections have over fences. There is the potential for this to play out. Readin Tommy Wrong & It's For Me, the two obvious candidates.

I backed him early, at 33/1, which given the manner of his Ballymore win (won going away over 2m5f) was more than fair should this play out. He's not a whole heap of form behind Teahupoo either and he won the Stayers well last season, so if he did end up there it would be with a very live chance.

Like I said, I've also backed him for both novice chase options as well. I want him and Ballyburn onside wherever the pair of them end up. I'm hoping I'll have time to cash out one or two bets should the destination of the pair look obvious, but it's not a necessity, as the stakes are not going to make or break my festival.

I'm not sure why Gaelic Warrior has been brought into the equation, if anything it goes to show that the obvious (him being a BANC horse according to Patrick & this forum) is not always the case. Therefore anything can happen with IEP. Just because he was campaigned as a Champion Hurdle horse, doesn't mean that's the route they'll go down again (trip or otherwise).

On the subject of Gaelic Warrior, I think IEP travels a whole heap better than him, therefore able to get a trip.
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Thats fair, he needs to jump a fence well first. I think he will. I suspect ReadinTommyWrong and It's For Me aren't thought of any way near as highly as IEP tbh, for all they could improve. 33/1 is a good enough price though and you're right, he doesn't have a heap to find with Teahupoo, so I can see it.

I brought GW into the equation because whilst the obvious doesn't always happen, it often does. As you say, IEP travels better than GW, he's faster than GW and was a better novice hurdler. Given they chose to campaign him as a top 2 miler and said he'll go novice chasing, it stands to reason the Arkle is way more likely than this. IMO

That being said, if WPM came out tomorrow and said IEP was sticking over hurdles then the 20's currently available will be single figures and you will look very clever indeed being on at 33's. I'd be happy being wrong under those circumstances and as I say, it's a nice price all things considered (sensible covering him for the novice chases too!)
 
The one I think to keep an eye on in this market is Irish point……those with books might want a bit of cover

GE has I think said it’s not certain he goes chasing…..bit odd as surely he would have schooled by now with GE getting his out early

He’s not the a scopiest of types ….and now with only two novice G1s at Chelt (& his best distance was prob Turners)

If he stayed hurdling, then his owners could mop up loads of G1s in Ireland and UK over 2.5m and 3m

Not certain he’d go to Cheltenham, but anything could happen ….and possible his price could suddenly shorten dramatically
 
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Then to add to Robcour list in this area, Hiddenvalley Lake might be one at a price to have onside

I’ve mentioned before that Henry commented he hadn’t won the race, nor had Rachael ..,,their only gap

Not sure he is as good as other two, but not that far away & things can change over a season & he could emerge
 
TigerRolllllll said:
The one I think to keep an eye on in this market is Irish point……those with books might want a bit of cover

GE has I think said it’s not certain he goes chasing…..bit odd as surely he would have schooled by now with GE getting his out early

He’s not the a scopiest of types ….and now with only two novice G1s at Chelt (& his best distance was prob Turners)

If he stayed hurdling, then his owners could mop up loads of G1s in Ireland and UK over 2.5m and 3m

Not certain he’d go to Cheltenham, but anything could happen ….and possible his price could suddenly shorten dramatically
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He's one I really like and I agree with all of that. Lost little in defeat in those runs against State Man but he's not a top two miler, but we know from the Christmas Hurdle that he does stay 3 miles. He's only 6 years old and the stayers is a hard race to win that age, as last years winner taught us the previous year. I'd be less concerned about them going chasing with IP and more concerned about them avoiding Cheltenham altogether, providing Teahupoo stays sound. That being said, if IP stays over hurdles they don't really have much to lose firing two bullets. He's not beating State Man any time soon over 2m and you can forget about him laying a glove on Con Hill. That leaves them with limited options. What's very interesting about this bet and it's a really good point you make is mopping up a load of races over 2m5f and 3m. If Irish Point did that it would be very hard for connections not to run him. We know Gordon likes to run Teahupoo fresh and trainers tend to be creatures of habit, so I suspect he'll run once before Cheltenham like last year and repeat the same prep. If I were Gordon I'd much rather fire two bullets at the stayers and win a G1 at the festival along with 200k than split them and potentially lose both. I have definitely talked myself into 12/1, it just makes sense. If Teahupoo had a setback IP would probably be 3/1 ish. We can debate all day whether thats good or bad, but thats roughly what the bookies would do so yeh, not a book builder but a believer for sure. 12/1 is good
 
…Skelton re Langer Dan;

‘He had a great year last year and won a second Coral Cup and we moved him up to Graded level and he acquitted himself very well. Handicaps are now out of the question, and he is going to start in the West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby and then go from there. We are hoping to make him into a Stayers’ Hurdle horse. Everyone thinks I am messing around when I say he is better in the spring but let us just see how it shows this year. He always does well over the summer, and we will see where we are with him after Wetherby.​‘
 
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Is it just me or does anyone else think he'll somehow end up in a Handicap at the Fez.....
 
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Sire Du Berlais won the Pertemps off 152.......
 
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Lobos said:
Is it just me or does anyone else think he'll somehow end up in a Handicap at the Fez.....
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Near zero chance I'm afraid.
He worked miracles hiding the horses ability for three years to be fair...
 
The play for me here is Irish Point @ 12/1. I think he'll stay hurdling. If I am right I can see that price halving, possibly worse so might take it now. Lots of pots to be won with him hurdling and we know Teahupoo will be campaigned sparingly which is good for the owners on both fronts. Little splits him on ratings with the fav. He's unexposed over a trip but has already won a Grade 1 over 3m emphatically. He's 6 going on 7 and I think we could see plenty of improvement from him. That run in the CH was a blinder over a trip too sharp and his run at Punchestown was even better. Unlike his stable mate, he's not ground dependent but has won over 3m on heavy. At 6 times the price of the fav and reigning champ, I just think he's the wrong price in what looks a piss weak market.
 
Raised this previously I think ….what do we think will be Willie’s dart(s) At this

Only ones that might have chance I can see in exchange list at mo….

High Class Hero - def of interest
Impaire Et Passe - said to be going fencing, but not impossible
Monkfish - was target owner wanted last season, but doubt good enough
saint Sam - not good enough ?

Any better ideas? Surely he will have something - prob 2-3
 
High Class Hero for me as well. Small bit of me thinks Dancing City might go for it.
 
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