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2025 Stayers Hurdle

Eggs

Eggs

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Current betting;

Teahupoo 5/2
Theleme 8-1 (indications could be out for the season)
Irish Point 12-1
State Man 12-1
Lossiemouth 14-1
Strong Leader 16-1
Marine National 16-1
Slade Steel16-1
Ballyburn 16-1
 
I don't think there is anything in here that could improve anywhere near enough to get to Teahupoo. Strong Leader is probably second best and as for anything else, it's difficult to pin point anything. Of the British charges, as mentioned, Blueking Doroux will probably be aimed here as will Crambo, a year older and stronger could see him closer. The Irish, Home By The Lee for one last crack probably and one that did catch my eye last season and seemed to improve with every run was Buddy One. He will probably go chasing but if he was to come here i would be interested in him.
 
I do like the Langer Dan angle, reinforced by spectre views on his videos yesterday

the horse loves Cheltenham and showed he can step up into grade 1 form

Blueking I think will target the Ascot long walk, trainer likes a winner at that track. I can see him winning that but just have a nagging feeling he may not take to Cheltenham. Can’t see him running off his current price

the rest, meh

Teahupoo a deserved fav here, but I’d be siding with those who haven’t ran in this race yet and who are clearly going 3 mile hurdling
 
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Oh shit, yeah Langer Dan :welcoming::welcoming: 3rd best in. Forgot him and iv'e backed him for the e/w taggy play :glee:
 
Blueking D'Oroux has to improve 8lb or so to be good enough to place but he was only 4 last year when doing most of his running so improvement is likely. Other than Teahupoo, the division looks weak and very open so 50/1 (66's in places) for BD looks reasonable value IMO.


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I have been looking for any value in the Stayers market for a while now and have come to the conclusion that any challenge to the worthy fav Teahupoo may come from left field. Any value may well have gone when stable tours start as targets will be announced, although with Willie Mullins these can change ! With the Turners and Nat Hunt chases now handicaps then maybe one of Willlies novices from last year may step up rather than compete against each other, as he has a fair few good 140+ RPR novices. Remember the Stayers first prize is worth nearly double of either the Arkle or Browns. Looking through Willies novice hurdlers from last year and thinking that a novice would need to be at a RPR of at least 150 now in order to improve circa a stone to compete with Teahupoo ( Sax’s stats would indicate you need to be 153+ at the start of the season) then there is only a few, which include, Dancing City 151, High Class Hero 151, Readin Tommy Wrong 152 and Mystical Power 153. Three stayers and maybe one 2m ? How to decide on which one to have a speculative (very speculative) investment on ? I was thinking about Readin Tommy Wrong when I thought about owners/connections etc and came upon my ‘left field’ idea and that’s Impaire Et Passé at 20/1. My logic is now that the Nat Hunt chase is a handicap surely Readin Tommy Wrong has to run in the Browns and is rated higher than Willies to other stayers inc Dancing City, so that leaves the Arkle and the Stayers Hurdle. He could run in the Arkle but I think there is a case to run in the Stayers. The case for is …..He is currently rated 163, five pounds short of Teahupoo, he lost to Teahupoo in last years Hattons Grace by only 1 length, he started last year being raced/trained/ takes of as a potential champion hurdle horse but was then raced over 2 1/2 miles later in the season with better success (similar to Teahupoo early in his career before trying staying distances?) and his last race of the year was over nearly 2m 6f beating Langer Dan easily off level weights, whereas he more of less dead heated with the same horse over 2 1/2 miles at Aintree. Connections I believe did state last year that he now does need a trip ? And maybe his end of season exploits support this view ? Add another year on his back, being a year younger than Teahupoo then maybe he can find the few pounds he needs to topple the worthy Fav in the Stayers and is therefore the tentative value in the race ? If he runs in the race (I know it’s a big IF) surely he will be circa 4/1 second fav ? OK Tin hat on and ready for alternative opinions !
 
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I like Impaire Et Passe, wherever he runs Wayward Lad :encouragement:

I have him backed for the Stayers, alongside the two novice chase options, plus an 'Any Race' bet and can certainly see an argument for him for the Stayers.

I think with the way he travels, the further the better for him (which kind of defeats him being an Arkle bet for me, despite having backed him for it), and I do think there is some logical reasoning as to why he may end up in the Stayers.
 
I forgot to mention that the same connections have Its For Me which maybe their potential Arkle horse ?
 
For those that like Teahupoo for the stayers, (dont think there's much chance he goes elsewhere) he is currently 5-2 to in Sky's to win any race market but only 9-4 in their stayers market
 
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Joleg said:
For those that like Teahupoo for the stayers, (dont think there's much chance he goes elsewhere) he is currently 5-2 to in Sky's to win any race market but only 9-4 in their stayers market
Click to expand...

Beautiful ....:eagerness:
 
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Interesting regarding IEP. Very interesting angle that i hadn't considered. Willie literally has nothing for this race does he? The decision will probably hinge on whether they see him as a future Gold Cup horse. If the answer to that is 'no' then they could well stay over hurdles but i am sure Munir and Suede would want a Gold Cup chance even if it is a slim one. If my weekend bets go well i might just get him onside. I have left him for the Arkle, i think he gets beat over 2 miles :disgust::disgust:
 
Yosser said:
Interesting regarding IEP. Very interesting angle that i hadn't considered. Willie literally has nothing for this race does he? The decision will probably hinge on whether they see him as a future Gold Cup horse. If the answer to that is 'no' then they could well stay over hurdles but i am sure Munir and Suede would want a Gold Cup chance even if it is a slim one. If my weekend bets go well i might just get him onside. I have left him for the Arkle, i think he gets beat over 2 miles :disgust::disgust:
Click to expand...


…..I have a recollection that somebody suggested High Class Hero for this at 50-1 a few weeks ago.
 
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If IEP was going to run in this, he would have done so this year imo and instead they just skipped the fes and went to aintree instead over 2 mile 4
 
Eggs said:
…..I have a recollection that somebody suggested High Class Hero for this at a fancy price a few weeks ago.
Click to expand...

I remember reading it. Was that you? I kind of poo pooed it in my head because they were talking about him being a staying chaser last year :biggrin-new: but.............. things have changed now and that could be another one. I am not sure i like him very much though, dunno why.
 
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Yosser said:
I remember reading it. Was that you? I kind of poo pooed it in my head because they were talking about him being a staying chaser last year :biggrin-new: but.............. things have changed now and that could be another one. I am not sure i like him very much though, dunno why.
Click to expand...


….it wasn’t me but i was drunk on rum in Cyprus so was easily persuaded to add him to my book :adoration:
 
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It would have taken a big jump to have run IEP in the Stayers Hurdle last year as he was being trained as a potential Champ Hurdle horse early in in the season and ran in the Irish Champ Hurdle early Feb. Surely you would need to test him over further than 2m before entering a gruelling 3m G1 race at Cheltenham ? I think that’s why they waited for Aintree. It proved successful and then they tried him over further at Sandown and he won easily.
I could easily be proved wrong (the respective prices for the Arkle and Browns say I am) when the stable tours arrive, but I don’t think he’s a 20/1 shot, as for me the majority of the price is whether he runs in the race, not his respective chance should the connections decide to.
 
Eggs said:
….it wasn’t me but i was drunk on rum in Cyprus so was easily persuaded to add him to my book :adoration:
Click to expand...

I raised HCH couple weeks ago as an idea ….but not based on any insight ….just digging around re what Willie might do

I’ve done a little at 50s as price would clearly be nothing like that should he stay over hurdles
 
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I’d had him down as a turners horse this season, but now I have no idea. I see the merits of him having targets over hurdles and fences this season. One of my absolute favourite horses. TWAR for me. Hoping to get voided turners AP bets
 
Guinness Village said:
I’d had him down as a turners horse this season, but now I have no idea. I see the merits of him having targets over hurdles and fences this season. One of my absolute favourite horses. TWAR for me. Hoping to get voided turners AP bets
Click to expand...


….High Class Hero 12-1 in Hills TWAR lists.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I like Impaire Et Passe, wherever he runs Wayward Lad :encouragement:

I have him backed for the Stayers, alongside the two novice chase options, plus an 'Any Race' bet and can certainly see an argument for him for the Stayers.

I think with the way he travels, the further the better for him (which kind of defeats him being an Arkle bet for me, despite having backed him for it), and I do think there is some logical reasoning as to why he may end up in the Stayers.
Click to expand...

What is the argument for IEP in the stayers? When connections said they would remain hurdling for a season they mentioned going novice chasing the following season so that would be a red flag for stayers bets IMO.

He started out over 2m3f then they came back to 2m for Moscow Flyer. Willie said he wanted to run him in the Supreme but that he had Facile Vega. Based on his Ballymore run I think he'd have beaten MN in a Supreme (don't think many would disagree). He started life in open company over 2m4f before dropping back to 2m with connections thinking he could potentially challenge CH, which is a big statement in itself. If he'd bombed out over 2m then I could perhaps see the stayers angle, but he lost little in defeat losing 3L to State Man IMO which was arguably the best we have seen from him. Connections have continually thought of him as speedy and I don't think 2m5f wins at Aintree or Sandown change that, or mean 3m at Cheltenham would suit him. We all know 3m at Cheltenham vs 2m5f is a world apart.

IEP is in that bracket where he was a very good 2 mile hurdler without being top drawer. Don't get me wrong, he may end up over 3m in time and do a Nichols Canyon, but I don't really see the point. If chasing doesn't work out then maybe he ends up here, but I don't think that will be the plan. He'll probably start at 2m and stay there until he's beaten. Yes, he's bred to stay so he could go up in trip, but, I think his career to date is the perfect launch pad for a crack at the Arkle. When GW won the G1 over 3m at the end of his hurdling career we were all talking about him being a potential BANC horse, I don't think many were thinking Arkle at all. GW races very differently to IEP and is all choke out, but, he ended up in the Arkle because of his raw speed and the ability to stay, which are the two qualities IEP has proven he has.

How much would IEP need to improve for a fence based on that Ballymore win or 3L second to State Man to be a real player in the 2m chase division? I don't think much at all and see no reason why they wont opt for the minimum trip over 2m over fences vs an unknown trip over staying over hurdles.
 
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