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2024 Ryanair Chase

I was surprised Allaho didn't lead the King George from flag fall, I know he jumped the first in front but then settled and let Frodon and then Shishkin take the lead.
A confident Allaho camp would have bounced and gone.
It's almost like they think he might not be able to go the same gallop these days.
It's important to remember he missed last year and was 8 the last time he won the Ryanair in such style.

I don't rate the King George form at all.
Could be wrong though, and Allaho still deserves to be Favourite given the likely runners.
More than happy to leave him out this year though, don't even think I'll have any saver doubles on him, unless his price looks attractive.
 
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The 2 scenarios I can picture in my head

1) allaho is back to somewhere near his peak

He gallops them into the ground again

2) allaho isn't back to near his peak

Allaho is unable to burn off stage star as he doesnt have the cruising speed he had anymore and they take each other on at the front and Envoi Allen is travelling in behind and picks them both off up the hill
 
Willie did say Allaho found it difficult going the pace of the KG and couldn't dominate like he has done in previous races. Another clue that he may have lost some of his brilliant mojo . Agree with Q he's no betting proposition at all.
 
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FinalFurlong91 said:
The 2 scenarios I can picture in my head

1) allaho is back to somewhere near his peak

He gallops them into the ground again

2) allaho isn't back to near his peak

Allaho is unable to burn off stage star as he doesnt have the cruising speed he had anymore and they take each other on at the front and Envoi Allen is travelling in behind and picks them both off up the hill
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I think thats a fair assessment. Forecast it is :wink-new:
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
What i would say is I think the RPRs for the king george are way too high

hewick 173
Bmg 172
Allaho 172


I'd be taking 7 or 8lbs off those ratings myself
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Take even more off. They've got Bravemansgame running 3 pounds below his GC 2nd and 5 pounds below his last KG win. He hasn't ran within a stone minimum of last year.

Hewick's struggled off a pace that was slower than the novice chase and has ran to a career best apparently.

The Real Whacker ran to the same rating as his BANC win FFS.

All the evidence you need that most of the time, RPRs are a load of shite.

Il Est Francis would have won the KG easy. Do people think he's a 180 animal?
 
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DenmanSacre said:
Take even more off. They've got Bravemansgame running 3 pounds below his GC 2nd and 5 pounds below his last KG win. He hasn't ran within a stone minimum of last year.

Hewick's struggled off a pace that was slower than the novice chase and has ran to a career best apparently.

The Real Whacker ran to the same rating as his BANC win FFS.

All the evidence you need that most of the time, RPRs are a load of shite.

Il Est Francis would have won the KG easy. Do people think he's a 180 animal?
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I think whoever did those rprs had a little too much alcohol over the festive period :angel:

Or its a miss click and they meant to put 163, 162, 162
 
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DenmanSacre said:
Take even more off. They've got Bravemansgame running 3 pounds below his GC 2nd and 5 pounds below his last KG win. He hasn't ran within a stone minimum of last year.

Hewick's struggled off a pace that was slower than the novice chase and has ran to a career best apparently.

The Real Whacker ran to the same rating as his BANC win FFS.

All the evidence you need that most of the time, RPRs are a load of shite.

Il Est Francis would have won the KG easy. Do people think he's a 180 animal?
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Dangerous question to ask on here :highly_amused:
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
I think whoever did those rprs had a little too much alcohol over the festive period :angel:

Or its a miss click and they meant to put 163, 162, 162
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You really do talk a load of garbage.
So the winner of the king george should get the same rpr as gerri colombe who got pumped 23 lengths in the savilles?
 
DenmanSacre said:
Take even more off. They've got Bravemansgame running 3 pounds below his GC 2nd and 5 pounds below his last KG win. He hasn't ran within a stone minimum of last year.

Hewick's struggled off a pace that was slower than the novice chase and has ran to a career best apparently.

The Real Whacker ran to the same rating as his BANC win FFS.

All the evidence you need that most of the time, RPRs are a load of shite.

Il Est Francis would have won the KG easy. Do people think he's a 180 animal?
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Why hasn't bravemansgame run to within 5lbs of last years kg win? He was going over the 2nd last level with l'homme presse last year, he was a length down on a superstar this year and a length ahead of allaho?

Gerri colombe was given the same rpr as his banc run in the savilles, so why should the real whackers be so surprising, this is open grade 1 level not novice grade 1.

I agree rpr's are very subjective and just another opinion.

Many times a novice chase over the same c&d on the same card as an open chase has recorded quicker times, doesn't mean if they were in the open race they would've won, i'm pretty sure a man of your knowledge know's this anyway. And he could easily become a 180 chaser in next years king george.
 
AaronLad said:
You really do talk a load of garbage.
So the winner of the king george should get the same rpr as gerri colombe who got pumped 23 lengths in the savilles?
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I appreciate the feedback from such an esteemed contributor to the forum

Il bear it in mind going forward and try to put my rubbish in the bin and not on here

My apologies
 
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FinalFurlong91 said:
I appreciate the feedback from such an esteemed contributor to the forum

Il bear it in mind going forward and try to put my rubbish in the bin and not on here

My apologies
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Hewicks 3 previous rprs on good ground were 168,167 and 165 in handicap chases, you think his grade 1 king george win deserved a 163.
You better empty that bin of yours, it must be overflowing
 
AaronLad said:
Why hasn't bravemansgame run to within 5lbs of last years kg win? He was going over the 2nd last level with l'homme presse last year, he was a length down on a superstar this year and a length ahead of allaho?

Gerri colombe was given the same rpr as his banc run in the savilles, so why should the real whackers be so surprising, this is open grade 1 level not novice grade 1.

I agree rpr's are very subjective and just another opinion.

Many times a novice chase over the same c&d on the same card as an open chase has recorded quicker times, doesn't mean if they were in the open race they would've won, i'm pretty sure a man of your knowledge know's this anyway. And he could easily become a 180 chaser in next years king george.
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It's not just the time. The King George wasn't ran at a fast gallop. They should therefore have all finished quicker than they did and yet they were slower in the finish than IEF. He's gone round quicker to the 3rd last than Hewick and then finished faster than Hewick from there. That's him setting a fast gallop and then quickening from it. The ones at the front of the KG went round slower than him and died up the run in.

That KG was massively disappointing IMO due to how it was ran. You could tell at the time they weren't going as quick as the novices, yet Allaho didn't get to the front, both him and BMG weren't travelling as well as Shishkin and then Allaho and BMG finished slowly.

I don't think any of the top 3 from that race will be winning another race this season. The form absolutely stinks.

If you watch the 2022 and 2023 KG back to back and watch how BMG jumped, travelled and finished, do you really think the 2023 version finishes near the 2022 version?

I don't agree with Gerri's rating either.

If we assume GDC's rating of 184 is correct, he's beat Gerri 23 lengths easy and yet Gerri is given a rating 21 pounds less at 163. Doesn't make sense. It isn't like he's finished clear of the rest and been slowed down - he's hung on for second.
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Should be at least 23 below plus some pounds for ease for GDCs manner of victory. IAM beaten 31 lengths yet rated 28 pounds below GDC - again absolutely no explanation for why he's rated 3 pounds higher than the beating he took and not factoring in GDCs ease of victory. Appreciate It given 148 beaten 41 lengths and so he's been rated at least 5 pounds higher than he should have.
 
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DenmanSacre said:
It's not just the time. The King George wasn't ran at a fast gallop. They should therefore have all finished quicker than they did and yet they were slower in the finish than IEF. He's gone round quicker to the 3rd last than Hewick and then finished faster than Hewick from there. That's him setting a fast gallop and then quickening from it. The ones at the front of the KG went round slower than him and died up the run in.

That KG was massively disappointing IMO due to how it was ran. You could tell at the time they weren't going as quick as the novices, yet Allaho didn't get to the front, both him and BMG weren't travelling as well as Shishkin and then Allaho and BMG finished slowly.

I don't think any of the top 3 from that race will be winning another race this season. The form absolutely stinks.

If you watch the 2022 and 2023 KG back to back and watch how BMG jumped, travelled and finished, do you really think the 2023 version finishes near the 2022 version?

I don't agree with Gerri's rating either.

If we assume GDC's rating of 184 is correct, he's beat Gerri 23 lengths easy and yet Gerri is given a rating 21 pounds less at 163. Doesn't make sense. It isn't like he's finished clear of the rest and been slowed down - he's hung on for second.
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Should be at least 23 below plus some pounds for ease for GDCs manner of victory. IAM beaten 31 lengths yet rated 28 pounds below GDC - again absolutely no explanation for why he's rated 3 pounds higher than the beating he took and not factoring in GDCs ease of victory. Appreciate It given 148 beaten 41 lengths and so he's been rated at least 5 pounds higher than he should have.
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If Il est francais had set the pace in the king george rather that frodon, the king george would've been a different race, unfortunately they allowed frodon to set the pace which they were all happy to do.
I can't disagree about the front 3, but i think saying it was a stinky race is just to harsh on shishkin. He is still more than capable.
In my comparisons of the races I have kilbeg king very close to winning the king george, surely that in itself tells you to compare these races would be folly.
 
AaronLad said:
If Il est francais had set the pace in the king george rather that frodon, the king george would've been a different race, unfortunately they allowed frodon to set the pace which they were all happy to do.
I can't disagree about the front 3, but i think saying it was a stinky race is just to harsh on shishkin. He is still more than capable.
In my comparisons of the races I have kilbeg king very close to winning the king george, surely that in itself tells you to compare these races would be folly.
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Shishkin would have won the KG and I'd not write him off winning another grade 1, especially at Aintree.

I don't think stating the other 3 were disappointing has any impact on Shishkin, especially if anyone thinks he beats Hewick 8 lengths+. If he did stay standing and won by say 10 lengths to Hewick staying on and beating the others to 2nd, do you think Shishkin would have been given a rating of 183 and only one pound less than GDCs performance at Xmas?

I'm not comparing overall times. But you can look at how they raced, the pace and finishing efforts. That tells you that IEF ran quicker from the 3rd fence to the 3rd last fence and then was quicker than Hewick and much quicker than Allaho and BMG from 3 out. The KG was ran slow enough for a top class animal to finish from 3 out better than those 3 shown.

If I was just looking at overall times, I'd think Court in the Act was an absolute machine with an overall time close to Constitution Hill. But watching both races, you can see the grade 1 was run slowly until Constitution Hill took off, put in a brilliant time to move away from Rubaud effortlessly and then eased towards the line again. Overall time is worthless without looking at how the race was actually ran.
 
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DenmanSacre said:
Shishkin would have won the KG and I'd not write him off winning another grade 1, especially at Aintree.

I don't think stating the other 3 were disappointing has any impact on Shishkin, especially if anyone thinks he beats Hewick 8 lengths+. If he did stay standing and won by say 10 lengths to Hewick staying on and beating the others to 2nd, do you think Shishkin would have been given a rating of 183 and only one pound less than GDCs performance at Xmas?

I'm not comparing overall times. But you can look at how they raced, the pace and finishing efforts. That tells you that IEF ran quicker from the 3rd fence to the 3rd last fence and then was quicker than Hewick and much quicker than Allaho and BMG from 3 out. The KG was ran slow enough for a top class animal to finish from 3 out better than those 3 shown.

If I was just looking at overall times, I'd think Court in the Act was an absolute machine with an overall time close to Constitution Hill. But watching both races, you can see the grade 1 was run slowly until Constitution Hill took off, put in a brilliant time to move away from Rubaud effortlessly and then eased towards the line again. Overall time is worthless without looking at how the race was actually ran.
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I think if shishkin had stood up and won he would have performed to at least 180 which is why i think the race is rated correctly. In you're opening post you was clear you think it is over rated, this is the opinion i'm against.
As i've mentioned in a previous post hewicks rprs on good ground entitle him to have run to 173 in this king george. He's a proper stayer on good ground and was just getting going, in handicap chases he can dictate from the front he couldn't keep up in this grade 1.

I appreciate your time and just for clarity i'm not arguing with you here :friendly_wink:
 
I’m trying to work out why Allahos legion of followers aren’t in ALs camp here as ratings were quite prevalent in arguing Allahos superiority to others in the Ryanair.

AL, I have a lot of time for a lot of your contributions but there is no way for me Shishkin was in 180 type shape for the KG. Had he stood up he would have won the race fto despite having a pretty disastrous prep. There are too many data points all concluding this was a poor King George for all of the data points to be wrong imo. I am convinced IEF would have won the KG and Shishkin would have been an honourable second. The rest absolutely nowhere,the winner and trw so far detached that they’d probably have been pulled up and Allaho would have needed an oxygen tent from 2 out trying to stay remotely close to ief.

Perhaps this would be a good opportunity for all those that believe Allaho represents good value for the Ryanair to join in? Ofc I am assuming there is nobody that believes Allaho is good value AND the KG was significantly overrated. That argument I’d certainly be interested in.
 
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I don't remember seeing anyone suggesting Allaho as a bet at the current prices

To me galopin has been rated too low and the KG rated too high

Completely agree with everything denman Sacre said

I'd be giving Galopin a few lbs upgrade for ease of victory and going 187-189

It was a truly breathtaking performance and imo a career best
 
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