2024 Ryanair Chase

[Rooster Booster]

I don't remember seeing anyone suggesting Allaho as a bet at the current prices

To me galopin has been rated too low and the KG rated too high

Completely agree with everything denman Sacre said

I'd be giving Galopin a few lbs upgrade for ease of victory and going 187-189

It was a truly breathtaking performance and imo a career best

It was suggested yesterday there was a long and active debate involving quite a few folks

Apologies I caught up on the debate yesterday. Archie post 366 but the whole gist of the debate was triggered by lobos saying he was a stupid price

 

[FinalFurlong91]

It was suggested yesterday there was a long and active debate involving quite a few folks

I was involved and thought people were thinking more along the lines of not giving up on bets already struck

Not suggesting him as a bet at current price post king george

Think maybe archie suggested he'd consider current price but the rest sounded like they were like myself and on pre king george at bigger

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

I seem to recall someone saying 6/4 nrnb is a fair price

Have to say…… reading this thread does give me confidence that I’m ok not using ratings much when punting!!!

 

[Rooster Booster]

I was involved and thought people were thinking more along the lines of not giving up on bets already struck

Not suggesting him as a bet at current price post king george

Think maybe archie suggested he'd consider current price but the rest sounded like they were like myself and on pre king george at bigger

Apologies our posts crossed over I edited mine.

 

[Zachx02]

I seem to recall someone saying 6/4 nrnb is a fair price

Have to say…… reading this thread does give me confidence that I’m ok not using ratings much when punting!!!

love allaho but 6/4 not for me you'll probably get that on the day

 

[DenmanSacre]

I think if shishkin had stood up and won he would have performed to at least 180 which is why i think the race is rated correctly. In you're opening post you was clear you think it is over rated, this is the opinion i'm against.
As i've mentioned in a previous post hewicks rprs on good ground entitle him to have run to 173 in this king george. He's a proper stayer on good ground and was just getting going, in handicap chases he can dictate from the front he couldn't keep up in this grade 1.

I appreciate your time and just for clarity i'm not arguing with you here :friendly_wink:

Just a healthy debate. Both agree Shishkin was best of them all in the race. If he stood up, I've said I think he beats Hewick by a minimum of 3 lengths and probably more.

As you say, just disagreeing on the rating of the front 3. The KG and Clonmel Oil suggest to me Allaho has regressed, even comparing him to his John Durkan win in 2021. I think that was a better performance than the 2 this year but RPRs think the John Durkan was worse than both. We won't find out until the Ryanair I suppose.

 

[archie]

Maybe we can get back to a civilised discussion on opinions.

I did indeed express the opinion that 6/4 nrnb is a fair price for Allaho quoting some RPR figures to support that opinion. To be fair, in the past I've regularly dissed RPRs as just another opinion that most of us only use when it backs up our own. However, if you look at a table listed by OR/RPR this season/Timeform rating, you get:

173/172/171 Allaho
166/171/165 Stage Star
164/167/164 Envoi Allen
164/167/167 Edwardstone

That would seem to confirm my previous reservation over Stage Star's RPR for the handicap win but, otherwise, the opinions of all three compilers are roughly in line. Of course, RPR is a rating based on a specific performance whereas OR and Timeform are predictive of what a horse could run to today but they are widely used together and are basically on the same scale so it's not unreasonable to put them side by side.

On the specific rating of the King George and the Savills, the same figures show:

180/184/181 GDC
173/172/171 Allaho
173/172/176 (squiggle) Shishkin
170/172/172 BMG
169/173/167 Hewick
167/163/165 Gerri Colombe

Again, it seems to indicate that the KG RPRs weren't outrageous. For my part, I thought that Shishkin's stumble happened at a critical time of the race because he impeded both BMG and Allaho with little time to regain proper momentum for the final jump. I'm of the opinion that Shishkin would probably have won but probably by no more than a couple of lengths or so. I'm aware that others have different opinions but, frankly my dear......
Good luck with yours.

 

[opatcho]

RPR put to one side

Shishkin struggled in last years Ryanair, looked outpaced, looked uncomfortable. I do think Shiskin and BMG are better animals around Kempton but I would be knocking a few lbs off both of them heading into Cheltenham

Allaho, off that pace in the KG should have had all these rowing at 6 out. He didn’t. Could be strip a few lbs fitter going into the Ryanair, possible but not likely

with the likes of Stage Star up front, with one or two isp there to try and start him from having a easy lead, I expect the Ryanair to go at a clip

My approach, and this is just my approach, will be to look at a speedier horse that’s going up in trip, and not a horse coming back down in trip

It’s a shame Edwardstone’s 10, and this wasn’t a year earlier as I’d be all over him. Ex-QM horses do well when stepping onto the Ryanair (Min, UDS, Envoi Allen, Shiskin)

A interesting race this…. hard one to solve but an interesting one indeed

 

[jack1092]

Why hasn't bravemansgame run to within 5lbs of last years kg win? He was going over the 2nd last level with l'homme presse last year, he was a length down on a superstar this year and a length ahead of allaho?

Enjoyed reading the overall debate on a race i couldn't give fiddlers on for antepost purposes...

This part made me chuckle the most!

 

[Hurricane fly]

Probably an unpopular opinion but I'm glad that Frodon has retired.
Sick to death of watching everyone let Bryony get to the front on him and start stop start stop, I think it unsettles most horses - so fair play for the tactic - and ruins some horses races.

Allaho logically won't be the same horse as before as many aren't after an injury let alone at 10 vs 8, but I would absolutely expect him to in with a chance coming over the last, and the main challengers haven't had faultless performances themselves.

 

[darlojim]

Ruby put up Appreciate it as a bet for the Ryanair on RTC, his 2nd in the race with Envoi @ 16s also put up by him

 

[Lobos]

Who gets the choice of the ride on Allaho ??

 

[darlojim]

Who gets the choice of the ride on Allaho ??

Paul of course?

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Notlongtillmay completely outclassed by Banbridge and pic dorhy not a good sign for stage star

Edwardstone was worth trying up in trip but clearly a 2 miler, pulled all the way round

Banbridge looked rusty, jumped poorly but won anyway and is now a big contender

With improvement surely to come

As a backer of allaho, envoi and Banbridge think I'm in a solid position in this race

 

[Eggs]

….Banbridge a general 5-1 (best 7-1 with Fred) after that win.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Notlongtillmay completely outclassed by Banbridge and pic dorhy not a good sign for stage star

Edwardstone was worth trying up in trip but clearly a 2 miler, pulled all the way round

Banbridge looked rusty, jumped poorly but won anyway and is now a big contender

With improvement surely to come

As a backer of allaho, envoi and Banbridge think I'm in a solid position in this race

Well summed up. Edwardstone was never getting home racing like that and not sure they'll try that trip again so cashed my bet on him.

I'll be praying for decent ground for Banbridge.

 

[Atlantic Viking]

Edwardstone needs dropping back to 5f.

 

[darlojim]

Worry for banbridge backers would be if it came up soft, connections wouldn't think twice than to wait for Aintree?

 

[Lobos]

Worry for banbridge backers would be if it came up soft, connections wouldn't think twice than to wait for Aintree?

Yep, they'd pull him. Big player on Good to Soft

 

[Eggs]

….Banbridge;

Winning owner Ronnie Bartlett told Racing TV: “We were always looking for good ground for him and we got it today. He was maybe a wee bit rusty at times but we’re very happy – he put up a solid performance.

“He made a few mistakes but he’s been off the track for a long time, so it’s pretty exciting.

“He just seems to be very professional, he’s more mature, he’s got bigger and thicker and he’s just in a good way. He was very cool about travelling over here, he was relaxed and it was a good way to start the season.

“We’ve had him bubbling for a long time and there have been races we were going for but the ground wasn’t what we wanted, but Joseph said there is still some improvement to go and we’re happy with that.”

Banbridge was cut from 10-1 to 5-1 for the Ryanair Chase by Betfair, Coral and Paddy Power.

“We’ll wait and see what the ground is like, he’s a spring horse, so we’ll watch him accordingly, but all being well, that’s the race we’ll be going for,” added Bartlett.
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