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2024 Ryanair Chase

Is anyone of the opinion Stage Star spits his dummy out if he doesn't get a lead? If so he's easily upset and beat in March.
 
Can't imagine many horses win grade 1s at Cheltenham having being pulled up on their previous start
 
HoldenTheReins said:
Is anyone of the opinion Stage Star spits his dummy out if he doesn't get a lead? If so he's easily upset and beat in March.
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I don't think he spits it out, but I don't think he's the same horse either. Like Flooring Porter, he seems to be one who relies on getting that breather in.
 
ORs as they stand;
:
173 (-4) Allaho
173 (0) Shishkin
166 (0) Stage Star
164 (0) Envoi Allen
164 (0) Edwardstone

Allaho might not be the horse that he was 2 years ago but he was just as inconvenienced as BMG by Shishkin's mishap. If Shishkin doesn't turn up, in my view he's a long way the most likely winner.
 
archie said:
ORs as they stand;
:
173 (-4) Allaho
173 (0) Shishkin
166 (0) Stage Star
164 (0) Envoi Allen
164 (0) Edwardstone

Allaho might not be the horse that he was 2 years ago but he was just as inconvenienced as BMG by Shishkin's mishap. If Shishkin doesn't turn up, in my view he's a long way the most likely winner.
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Shishkin hasn't even been given an entry in the race today, so they would now need to supplement him.
 
….32 entries;

Ahoy Senor (IRE) 9 11 10 Wymer & Russell Lucinda Russell
Allaho (FR) 10 11 10 Cheveley Park Stud W. P. Mullins Ireland
Appreciate It (IRE) 10 11 10 Miss M. A. Masterson W. P. Mullins Ireland
Ash Tree Meadow (FR) 8 11 10 Alymer Stud Ltd Gordon Elliott Ireland
Banbridge (IRE) 8 11 10 Mr R. A. Bartlett Joseph Patrick O'Brien Ireland
Capodanno (FR) 8 11 10 Mr John P. McManus W. P. Mullins Ireland
Classic Getaway (IRE) 8 11 10 Cheveley Park Stud W. P. Mullins Ireland
Conflated (IRE) 10 11 10 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ireland
Dysart Dynamo (IRE) 8 11 10 Ms Eleanor Manning W. P. Mullins Ireland
Editeur du Gite (FR) 10 11 10 The Preston Family, Friends & T Jacobs Gary Moore
Edwardstone 10 11 10 Robert Abrey & Ian Thurtle Alan King
El Fabiolo (FR) 7 11 10 Mr Simon Munir/Mr Isaac Souede W. P. Mullins Ireland
Envoi Allen (FR) 10 11 10 Cheveley Park Stud Henry de Bromhead Ireland
Fastorslow (FR) 8 11 10 Sean & Bernardine Mulryan Martin Brassil Ireland
Fil Dor (FR) 6 11 10 Caldwell Construction Ltd Gordon Elliott Ireland
French Dynamite (FR) 9 11 10 Robcour M. F. Morris Ireland
Fugitif (FR) 9 11 10 Mr Carl Hinchy & Dr Emad Hussain Richard Hobson
Greaneteen (FR) 10 11 10 Chris Giles Paul Nicholls
Hitman (FR) 8 11 10 Mason, Hogarth, Ferguson & Done Paul Nicholls
Idas Boy (IRE) 10 11 10 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade Ireland
Janidil (FR) 10 11 10 Mr John P. McManus W. P. Mullins Ireland
Jonbon (FR) 8 11 10 Mr John P. McManus Nicky Henderson
Jungle Boogie (IRE) 10 11 10 Mr Malcolm C. Denmark Henry de Bromhead Ireland
Millers Bank 10 11 10 Millers Bank Partnership Alex Hales
Minella Drama (IRE) 9 11 10 Green Day Racing Donald McCain
Notlongtillmay 8 11 10 Mr Alan Rogers L J Morgan
Pic D'orhy (FR) 9 11 10 Mrs Johnny de la Hey Paul Nicholls
Protektorat (FR) 9 11 10 Sir A Ferguson G Mason J Hales & L Hales Dan Skelton
Seddon (IRE) 11 11 10 Galaxy Horse Racing Syndicate John McConnell Ireland
Shan Blue (IRE) 10 11 10 Mr Colm Donlon Dan Skelton
Sir Gerhard (IRE) 9 11 10 Cheveley Park Stud W. P. Mullins Ireland
Stage Star (IRE) 8 11 10 Owners Group 044 Paul Nicholls​
 
Hills 25-1 NRNB for Jungle Boogie isn't too bad. I'm thinking it over as it would work out a good price if one of the top 3 don't turn up. Depending on any subsequent runs of course.

I'd imagine they might let the lad ride. And they might also think the Gold cup would be too much to ask.
With Rachel on Envoi should he run as expected.

Of all the 10 year olds likely to run in this, he's the least exposed. Only put up to 152 Irish rating for his new years day win. So a bit to find on the top 3, but I'd personally prefer him to Edwardstone as an each way player. Appreciate it the other one, but I'm expecting him to be tried at 2 miles again in Dublin from the front, so his price is subject to change, and he could be Mullins number 2 in the Champion Chase in the end.

Classic Getaway possibly, but he's 16-1 NRNB and I cannot see why they would run 3 in the same race, I expected a Gold cup entry for him so done my money, but no where near as much as he cost me yesterday when he dogged the last furlong and fell in a hole. Had 5pts on and a double with Shakemupharry :disgust:

I've only backed Stage Star so far, at 16's and again at 7's NRNB, and had small stakes on jungle boogie win only on exchange at triple figures.
 
Quevega said:
Hills 25-1 NRNB for Jungle Boogie isn't too bad. I'm thinking it over as it would work out a good price if one of the top 3 don't turn up. Depending on any subsequent runs of course.
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Completely agree with this; on the New Course this is the right race for him distance-wise. Never put into the race over an inadequate two miles behind El Fabilio, after almost two years off. Only raced on soft ground but, based on breeding, would be likely to appreciate slightly better ground as well. He jumps well and, as you say, is completely unexposed with no miles on the clock.
 
If Jungle Boogie goes, you've potentially got Stage Star, Jungle Boogie and one of Mullins (Allaho or Appreciate It) vying for the lead. Not sure Allaho has the gears now to do it from the front but they'll want one of their horses to ensure it's a proper test.

Envoi Allen and Edwardstone will stalk round. I'm not sure Edwardstone will be a strong enough stayer in this grade.

Could Fil DOr be stepped up? Always looked like further would suit.

Pic D'Orhy would interest me but doubt he would turn up here as they think Cobden is the key to him and he'll be on Stage Star. I think he'd have a fair chance in this.

I'm not convinced by the front 2 in the market, Envoi Allen is a danger if they take each other on up front but I think there could be a decent priced winner in this.
 
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archie said:
ORs as they stand;
:
173 (-4) Allaho
173 (0) Shishkin
166 (0) Stage Star
164 (0) Envoi Allen
164 (0) Edwardstone

Allaho might not be the horse that he was 2 years ago but he was just as inconvenienced as BMG by Shishkin's mishap. If Shishkin doesn't turn up, in my view he's a long way the most likely winner.
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Couldn't disagree more. Envoi won the race easily last year and has run right up to that mark this season. Stage Star is the new kid on the block whereas in his two races this season Allaho has definitely regressed from the horse he was 18 months ago. He'll certainly be in the mix but a long way the most likely winner he is not.
 
…lots of doubts about participation but he has an entry; 25-1 Banbridge with PP.
 
Lobos said:
Couldn't disagree more. Envoi won the race easily last year and has run right up to that mark this season. Stage Star is the new kid on the block whereas in his two races this season Allaho has definitely regressed from the horse he was 18 months ago. He'll certainly be in the mix but a long way the most likely winner he is not.
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People are being harsh on Allaho IMO. He was off for 561 days and ran to a debut RPR of 170 on heavy ground before losing the KG a length running to an RPR of 172. He pretty much lives in the 170+ bracket these days and we know, despite his win in the Punchestown Gold Cup, that he doesn't necessarily really want 3m, but, is a proper 2 1/2 mile specialist. We've seen 3 winners of the Ryanair in the last 19 years who are 10 years old so we know it's been done before and Allaho would be better than those 3. I suspect he'll go straight there and IMO he deserves to be a short priced fav. He may have regressed slightly but I look at the rest of the market and think he'd wallop most of them.
 
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I think ash tree meadow is a real improving chaser.
He won the galway plate and then won a 2 horse race at down royal.
He's steadily progressed to become 159 rated.
The grand national was spoken about but i think he surprised gordon elliott.
Last i heard him speak about ash tree meadow he was mentioning the melling chase and a fairyhouse chase in the spring, he was on a break.
Todays entr in the ryanair is very encouraging, couple that with gordon only having conflated and fil dor entered aswell and i think this fella is a lively outsider.
Gordon ellliott has said he prefers better ground, but he handled soft pretty well last time.
At 66/1 I think he's the value in the race.
 
Not sure re ratings and how accurate with Allaho,
but visually he doesn’t look the same to me, and that’s to be expected with his age and setback.
It looks to me that he will be running against better opponents this year than those he ran against when winning before. And there Could well be some gooduns coming from the QM and GC.
Will he still be good enough to win?
Possibly, but plenty there to form an opinion he’s not value, especially compared to EA, who imo has been one of the best priced horses all season.
Could be a good race this year, and quite open and nice prices available.
 
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Carnage at Taunton said:
Not sure re ratings and how accurate with Allaho,
but visually he doesn’t look the same to me, and that’s to be expected with his age and setback.
It looks to me that he will be running against better opponents this year than those he ran against when winning before. And there Could well be some gooduns coming from the QM and GC.
Will he still be good enough to win?
Possibly, but plenty there to form an opinion he’s not value, especially compared to EA, who imo has been one of the best priced horses all season.
Could be a good race this year, and quite open and nice prices available.
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Who are the better opponents? Stage Star just pulled up at Cheltenham and won an underwhelming Turners. Envoi Allen is a good shout, agree with that. Appreciate It doesn't look good enough which pains me to say. Jonbon won't go but 14/1 is interesting if you think he'll meet EF like me pre Cheltenham and get battered. Edwardstone comes with way too many question marks. Conflated will go XC. Banbridge is too ground dependant and will most likely wait until Aintree. The rest aren't really worth mentioning IMO. So I look at the top of the market and find little in the way of credible competition cut completely agree that EA is the bet at the prices.
 
charlie said:
Who are the better opponents? Stage Star just pulled up at Cheltenham and won an underwhelming Turners. Envoi Allen is a good shout, agree with that. Appreciate It doesn't look good enough which pains me to say. Jonbon won't go but 14/1 is interesting if you think he'll meet EF like me pre Cheltenham and get battered. Edwardstone comes with way too many question marks. Conflated will go XC. Banbridge is too ground dependant and will most likely wait until Aintree. The rest aren't really worth mentioning IMO. So I look at the top of the market and find little in the way of credible competition cut completely agree that EA is the bet at the prices.
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Look at those he beat before.
You have just mentioned at least 4 that imo more capable of running big races than those.
Stage Star, AI, EA and Edwardstone.
When we get the final decs, would not be surprised if there’s more.
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
Look at those he beat before.
You have just mentioned at least 4 that imo more capable of running big races than those.
Stage Star, AI, EA and Edwardstone.
When we get the final decs, would not be surprised if there’s more.
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Did beating multiple mid 160's rated chasers on rails by 14L not impress you? It was a better performance than Vautour, and thats not a statement I make likely.
EA is by miles the best bet of those 4 IMO, but they all come with risk (as does Allaho tbf).
The Ryanair has been an ante post betting no mans land for years. It almost always looks stronger now on paper than it ever actually ends up being.
When you take out the wait for aintree brigade and those that go QMCC/GC, you're often left with horses that are very good but not dining at the top table.
Cant help thinking that if you're takeaway from Allaho's past Ryanair wins is 'whats he beat' then you've made up your mind he's not a horse worth backing no matter what, which is fine. He had a tough race in the KG so who knows how he'll come out the race.
 
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