2024 Ryanair Chase

[Carnage at Taunton]

Did beating multiple mid 160's rated chasers on rails by 14L not impress you? It was a better performance than Vautour, and thats not a statement I make likely.
EA is by miles the best bet of those 4 IMO, but they all come with risk (as does Allaho tbf).
The Ryanair has been an ante post betting no mans land for years. It almost always looks stronger now on paper than it ever actually ends up being.
When you take out the wait for aintree brigade and those that go QMCC/GC, you're often left with horses that are very good but not dining at the top table.
Cant help thinking that if you're takeaway from Allaho's past Ryanair wins is 'whats he beat' then you've made up your mind he's not a horse worth backing no matter what, which is fine. He had a tough race in the KG so who knows how he'll come out the race.

Not at all. He was a very impressive winner of both Ryanair’s.

if he’s the same horse then I think he wins again.
Imo he’s shown signs he’s not, and I do think likely opposition will prove to be better than he faced before.
Plus I think there’s better value elsewhere.
So all in all I’m more than willing to take him on with the various opinions I have.

 

[YoungHustler]

People are being harsh on Allaho IMO. He was off for 561 days and ran to a debut RPR of 170 on heavy ground before losing the KG a length running to an RPR of 172. He pretty much lives in the 170+ bracket these days and we know, despite his win in the Punchestown Gold Cup, that he doesn't necessarily really want 3m, but, is a proper 2 1/2 mile specialist. We've seen 3 winners of the Ryanair in the last 19 years who are 10 years old so we know it's been done before and Allaho would be better than those 3. I suspect he'll go straight there and IMO he deserves to be a short priced fav. He may have regressed slightly but I look at the rest of the market and think he'd wallop most of them.

I agree with you Charlie and I still have Allaho as the winner of the Ryanair. He may not be able to run to 180 anymore but the important thing is that he doesn't need to. The King George was not his target and it's not as if he was tailed off. The Ryanair is his target where he'll be able to lead over a more suitable trip. As for the rest of the market, Envoi Allen is older and has never run to an RPR above 167 and no one would say he is improving. Appreciate It is not good enough. I do also have Stage Star in the book as he is the only improver imo and has ran to 170+. Edwarstone I also have to small stakes as can see him finishing well if Allaho does tire after setting his usual gallop.

 

[charlie]

I agree with you Charlie and I still have Allaho as the winner of the Ryanair. He may not be able to run to 180 anymore but the important thing is that he doesn't need to. The King George was not his target and it's not as if he was tailed off. The Ryanair is his target where he'll be able to lead over a more suitable trip. As for the rest of the market, Envoi Allen is older and has never run to an RPR above 167 and no one would say he is improving. Appreciate It is not good enough. I do also have Stage Star in the book as he is the only improver imo and has ran to 170+. Edwarstone I also have to small stakes as can see him finishing well if Allaho does tire after setting his usual gallop.

Really good point. You'd have thought he'd finished 15L back in 5th based on some of the comments you read here and elsewhere. He's also extremely uncomplicated. He's not ground dependent and can make all or slot in. We know why he didn't win the AB or BANC but is a multiple festival winner and when you think about how many 10 year olds have won at the festival (14 have won the QMCC, 3 have won the Ryanair etc), he'd go into Cheltenham 2024 with as good a chance as any IMO. Whats really important now is good stable vibes. Come out the race well and all that jazz.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

When has allaho ever looked as good in november/December as he does in the spring?

His form in the spring is lbs better

I probably wouldn't back him at current price

But as someone who's already on im definitely not writing him off

People are forgiving stage star for pulling up in a race in which most of his rivals were running out of the handicap but writing off allaho for finishing 3rd in the King george.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

When has allaho ever looked as good in november/December as he does in the spring?

His form in the spring is lbs better

Exactly. It's not rocket science either.

Worth remembering Vautour got beat in the King George before bolting up in the Ryanair.

Was Allaho's run in the King George really that bad? I don't think so. There was nothing between himself & Bravemansgame and he won the race last season by 14 lengths and recorded an RPR of 177, he recorded a 172 this season, so not a huge difference, he's also a Gold Cup 2nd and finished within touching distance of Galopin Des Champs in the Punchestown Gold Cup.

I think people are being a little harsh on Allaho, personally.

 

[Lobos]

Don't think anyone is writing him off. Just saying he's not unbeatable ??

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Don't think anyone is writing him off. Just saying he's not unbeatable ??

And I don't think anyone on here is saying he's unbeatable? Especially off the back of being beat!

 

[archie]

I'd be fairly confident that the most recent Allaho won't be beaten by the most recent Envoi Allen. Allaho's KG run is his highest ever December RPR and his 2 runs back from a 561 days break have RPRs that are 3lb and 5lb respectively higher than Envoi Allen has ever run in his entire chase career.

For me, the only potentially improving horse in the likely runners is Stage Star and I have a small question mark about his PP Gold Cup RPR because it's 10lb higher than any other performance.

Unless they throw a curve ball with Fastorslow, a fit Allaho will be close to evens on the day so 6/4 nrnb is, in my opinion, a very fair price.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

One can always use ratings as a way of backing up one’s opinion, and nowt wrong with that.
Its not something I do really, mostly cos I don’t use ratings much when betting.
They are just someone’s opinion after all, and many a time I’ve read on here people debating them.
I prefer to use my eyes and look at form and ground conditions.
Ive got used to winning and losing that way and more than happy with that.
I watched both races that A and EA ran in over 3m this season and preferred the performance of EA, thought he travelled better and had no thought that he may have regressed from last year.
I think A has regressed from winning the Ryanair.
He still could win this year of course, and I may be well wrong, but happy to go with my thinking.

 

[archie]

One can always use ratings as a way of backing up one’s opinion, and nowt wrong with that.
Its not something I do really, mostly cos I don’t use ratings much when betting.
They are just someone’s opinion after all, and many a time I’ve read on here people debating them.
I prefer to use my eyes and look at form and ground conditions.
Ive got used to winning and losing that way and more than happy with that.
I watched both races that A and EA ran in over 3m this season and preferred the performance of EA, thought he travelled better and had no thought that he may have regressed from last year.
I think A has regressed from winning the Ryanair.
He still could win this year of course, and I may be well wrong, but happy to go with my thinking.

Clearly, you're fully entitled to your thinking. However, in relation to the Ryanair, using this season's 3m form and ignoring the 2m4f races seems contrary. I haven't yet backed Allaho yet (no need) and may only do so in combination bets so I'm more than happy to wish you the best of luck.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Clearly, you're fully entitled to your thinking. However, in relation to the Ryanair, using this season's 3m form and ignoring the 2m4f races seems contrary. I haven't yet backed Allaho yet (no need) and may only do so in combination bets so I'm more than happy to wish you the best of luck.

I’m just looking at this seasons races and how the horses are looking to me.
Allaho’s first run was a gallops training exercise pretty much, just told me he was ok after his absence.

Appreciate your wishes, and same for you too.

Sorry, forgot about EA’s first race this season.
Thought his jumping was a bit iffy at times, which cost him,but considering the weights was ok, nothing more than that.

 

[charlie]

I’m just looking at this seasons races and how the horses are looking to me.
Allaho’s first run was a gallops training exercise pretty much, just told me he was ok after his absence.

Appreciate your wishes, and same for you too.

Sorry, forgot about EA’s first race this season.
Thought his jumping was a bit iffy at times, which cost him,but considering the weights was ok, nothing more than that.

Do you think you've under appreciated how good Allaho's last two runs in the Ryanair were?

 

[Rooster Booster]

Do you think you've under appreciated how good Allaho's last two runs in the Ryanair were?

And the award for the most thinly veiled statement masquerading as a question goes to …

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Do you think you've under appreciated how good Allaho's last two runs in the Ryanair were?

No, I’ve already said how impressive he was
Ive also said if he’s the same horse I think he wins again

 

[Lobos]

Do you think you've under appreciated how good Allaho's last two runs in the Ryanair were?

On a strict line through Janidil in Allahos 2nd Ryanair and Envois win last year, Envoi comes out on top. We also should remember Envoi beat 174 rated Shishkin last year whereas Allaho was going to be beaten by that one in the KG before his mishap. It's going to be a close call between the two.

 

[charlie]

And the award for the most thinly veiled statement masquerading as a question goes to …

hahaha read me like a book

 

[Lobos]

The level of Allaho's regression could arguably be judged by Janidil. He beat him 14 lengths off level weight to win his second Ryanair and then beat him by 9 lengths on return but receiving 5lbs. Still a decent run but regression nonetheless. Might still be good enough to win the Ryanair but I feel he'll come up short this time. At the prices he is no value at all based on the above. His price is based on past glory.

 

[Rooster Booster]

hahaha read me like a book

We’ve all done it :biggrin-new:

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Some extremely creative reading of the form of those Ryanairs and King george there Lobos

Allaho beat Janidil 2 lengths in the durkan on reappearance before beating him by 14 in the Ryanair in the spring

Shiskin ran like a drain in the Ryanair vs envoi allen. Ran to more like 164 than his 174 rating.

Janidil made several bad mistakes when losing to envoi allen. Simply didn't run his race.


What i would say is I think the RPRs for the king george are way too high

hewick 173
Bmg 172
Allaho 172


I'd be taking 7 or 8lbs off those ratings myself

Shiskin was imo in the process of winning the race by 5+ lengths (given how well he has finished every race in his career regardless of trip)

So would the racing post have really rated him 178/179

If allaho improves his normal amount from winter to spring I think he will win and probably win easily

If he doesn't find that usual improvement at age 10 then I don't think he will have much chance as he won't be able to take the others completely out of their comfort zone like he did when winning the race twice.

That would then bring the likes of envoi, stage star and edwardstone well into it.

An intriguing race.

Since Allaho is my favourite horse I won't even pretend I'm not enormously biased.

I'd love to see him win a third. Am I confident? No definitely not because of his age and the injury. The king george run was highly promising though and likely the best run of his career pre January.

 

[Lobos]

Envoi Allen may have ran the best race of his life last time when only just failing to beat the younger current Gold Cup hope Gerri Colombe with some top horses in behind and his official rating was raised as a result. He certainly hasn't regressed on that running. He's the one to beat.