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2023 Novice Hurdlers

As we've discussed before, everyone will have their own fudge factor, even if it's only a vague unwritten feeling, for deciding whether they want to take a particular ante post price and this will include a figure for how likely that horse is likely to line up in x months time. As x reduces, so do the odds on lining up.

I have to say that the two figures suggested so far are wildly different from my own which reflects my general caution in ante post betting and my not making a book. It can vary depending on the horse's previous fitness record but, as a rule of thumb, my factor for the probability of a horse turning up fit and well at Cheltenham is along the lines of:
Evens - until the horse comes back in from its summer break.
4/6 - while the horse is in training until its first run.
1/2 - after the first run until the Christmas festivals.
1/3 - after the Christmas festivals.

There are other things to take into account for individual races and individual horses (eg. is it the likely target?), but as a starting point I'm comfortable with my figures for what is more of an art than a science. After all, art is not to everyone's taste and some of it is a load of Jackson Pollocks.
 
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Could quite reasonably make a science of it like. How many fancied horses at this stage of an antepost book actually historically made it the festival. And I think you're getting a greater result than the 50% that evens would suggest.

6/4 to make the Supreme line up might have been a better opening statement :dread:

I'd go balls deep on 6/4 for him to make the festival at all if anyone wants to lay it! Evens as well to be fair.
 
Benjy23 said:
Could quite reasonably make a science of it like. How many fancied horses at this stage of an antepost book actually historically made it the festival. And I think you're getting a greater result than the 50% that evens would suggest.
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I think you're misreading. The horses are now in the 4/6 phase.

If you want to make a science of it, maybe you should make a note of the top 10 in the Supreme betting (and their prices) and see how many start the race (and at what price).
 
Willie says Royal Bond target for No Risk No Fun if he keeps progressing
 
Lobos said:
Willie says Royal Bond target for No Risk No Fun if he keeps progressing
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I'd say he will have at least 3 or 4 better at home, wouldn't interest me 1 bit. Has anyone actually added him for one of the novice hurdles at the fez?
 
darlojim said:
I'd say he will have at least 3 or 4 better at home, wouldn't interest me 1 bit. Has anyone actually added him for one of the novice hurdles at the fez?
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Don't hold back Darlo.....say what you feel :biggrin-new:
 
archie said:
I think you're misreading. The horses are now in the 4/6 phase.

If you want to make a science of it, maybe you should make a note of the top 10 in the Supreme betting (and their prices) and see how many start the race (and at what price).
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Aye, 4/6. I just read the headlines.

Not sure the top 10 in the supreme is really a reasonable sample to be honest. As FV is likely the most 'known' quantity of the lot of them. How many champion bumper winners made it to the next year's festival is probably a better sample if you want to focus on him alone.

But I might go back through a few of last year's races at this time of the year if I'm bored enough tomorrow. :emmersed: The novice races are inevitably going to show a much lower percentage than the open races, which again calls into question the logic of pricing all the same...
 
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Lobos said:
Don't hold back Darlo.....say what you feel :biggrin-new:
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Sorry that did sound a little abrupt :biggrin-new::biggrin-new::biggrin-new:

He's bang average aint he?:watermelon::sentimental:
 
Benjy23 said:
Aye, 4/6. I just read the headlines.

Not sure the top 10 in the supreme is really a reasonable sample to be honest. As FV is likely the most 'known' quantity of the lot of them. How many champion bumper winners made it to the next year's festival is probably a better sample if you want to focus on him alone.

But I might go back through a few of last year's races at this time of the year if I'm bored enough tomorrow. :emmersed: The novice races are inevitably going to show a much lower percentage than the open races, which again calls into question the logic of pricing all the same...
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Off the top of my head the bumper winner returning to the festival is around the 66% mark (possibly lower). So 1 in 3 don't return the following year ish !!!!!

4/6 it is. :highly_amused:
 
If you factor in supreme being a shade of odds on and the bally more odds against.
It makes the prices of 9/4/ & 5/2 and 7/2 & 4-1 respectively about right.
This doesn't factor in the opposition though - which could be inferior or not.
 
Rumi wins on hurdling debut for Blackmore and O'Grady


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He is my Sprinter Sacre - I am so looking forward to him jumping a fence because he will go through a brick wall. I'm delighted as she (Blackmore) said he rode very raw and while he ran on the flat, he is 17 hands and she said he rode like a point to pointer. She said he wasn't as sharp as your normal four year old that had run on the flat. She gave him a beautiful ride, was able to see a stride on him and she said he would be better in a better run race, where you could sit him in. He could go up to 2m4f as it would suit, but might run in a two-miles flat handicap at Thurles next month as he has a pretty low rating. I think he will be there or thereabouts for the novice season and I don't think soft ground is an issue, at the the moment anyway. We'll find out but certainly come the spring, when we need him, he will be alright.
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bullish quote - been a while since he had a good one
 
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Does anyone have an inkling where Firestep might run? I was keen on him last year, but Hendo seems mad about him this year after his injury. I had thought Ballymore.
 
Exar Essay said:
Does anyone have an inkling where Firestep might run? I was keen on him last year, but Hendo seems mad about him this year after his injury. I had thought Ballymore.
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Based on previous race planning I think Henderson will start him at 2m and then step him up if he loses. Could be wrong but that's his usual way.
 
Exar Essay said:
Does anyone have an inkling where Firestep might run? I was keen on him last year, but Hendo seems mad about him this year after his injury. I had thought Ballymore.
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Hendo's comments on him last year: I would be disappointed if he doesn't take high rank in novice hurdles this season. He did everything right in his two bumpers and he has loads of scope. He has schooled really well, and I think he could be very good. He shouldn't have a problem staying two and a half miles and he is something to look forward too.

https://jumps.attheraces.com/features/stable-tours/nicky-henderson
 
Cheers both. I didn’t think to look back to last seasons tours. That quote did imply mid-trip. Think I’ll chance him in the Ballymore and TWAR.
 
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