2023 Novice Hurdlers

[FinalFurlong91]

Because his nemesis Facile Vega is likely to end up there perhaps??:barbershop_quartet_member:

The markets have FV likelier to not be taking him on

Be interesting to see what Willie says in his stable tour

 

[Lobos]

The markets have FV likelier to not be taking him on

Be interesting to see what Willie says in his stable tour

The markets didn't help at all last season. Let's hope they are more accurate this.

He'll talk a load of nonsense as always :excitement:

 

[isitmarchyet]

The markets didn't help at all last season. Let's hope they are more accurate this.

He'll talk a load of nonsense as always :excitement:

To be fair, although he'll never fully commit, he did say Sir Gerhard would likely be a Ballymore horse last year. Also worth noting that he didn't mention Dysart Dynamo last year. A reminder not to worry too much if a horse isn't mentioned in the early tours.

Interesting to look back through this actually: https://www.sportinglife.com/racing...-it-energumene-ferny-hollow-and-allaho/195699

 

[Atlantic Viking]

Tell us why you think he can't?

Well it's my opinion (which generally isn't worth paying much attention to, much like the long winded waffle below isn't worth reading to be perfectly honest :highly_amused that he wont, but obviously he can as most things are possible and plenty clearly fancy him. He would have been a good winner in last seasons book after all, you couldn't avoid being impressed by his early season bumper runs. But anyway:

- I'm not overly convinced a huge amount will come out of last seasons champion bumper, even if most of us think the winner will go on to do very well (I accept that if you think that then for the purposes of this debate you have to consider AM a contender). Redemption Day (Posted a better RPR than AM after only 3 runs) put in a cracking performance at Punchestown to make up a little for the disappointment of his Cheltenham run, but was it flattered by FV being tired at the end of the season? AM well behind on that occasion. Out of the three, FV was the only one to run at the DRF, Cheltenham festival and Punchestown, getting the job done on markedly different goings.
- As above, the Punchestown run. Has there been an excuse for it? Even if there was, I tend to err on the side of taking most of them with a pinch of salt. Jamie Codd says in the recently published JTF that he just didn't feel the same on the day. Sir Gerhard gets a pass on his Punchestown runs, AM hasn't earnt such a right yet.
- If Facile Vega goes there (My book would prefer Supreme, but I think i'd make the Ballymore 60/40 the more likely at this stage), it'll quite likely take something special to beat him especially as we know he handles any ground, and I don't see that being AM.
- If Facile Vega doesn't (Just as Min, Douvan and Jonbon didn't of the same sire), It looks like there's an above average mob of pointers about to enter the fray. Walk In The Park, Sholokhov, Presenting, Yeats etc... sire some of the more highly fancied, the sort that warrant keeping a keen eye on, going to the right yards. I'm more interested in finding the right one of those than I am in AM at this stage. But again, I appreciate that's all nothing more than an opinion.
- Mahler at the festival, the evidence is piled pretty high at this point. They probably had their best chance last season given the ground, but both AM and JWM failed. My opinion is pretty much centered around this to be honest, I could have saved writing all the rest but i'm bored :biggrin-new:
- Owners at the festival. Almost certainly not a valid reason but one that potters about at the back of my mind. They seem to spend an awful lot of money on horses that are very good, but not quite good enough. Saying that, take out Bob Olinger and you could look the same way at Robcour, and to an even greater extent. Neither have horses with Mullins though, which does tend to pay to at least consider.

To conclude, if he wins it then fine, but he's just not for me unless he does something beforehand that makes him impossible to ignore. At current prices, I find him easy to ignore for the time being.

 

[Zachx02]

To be fair, although he'll never fully commit, he did say Sir Gerhard would likely be a Ballymore horse last year. Also worth noting that he didn't mention Dysart Dynamo last year. A reminder not to worry too much if a horse isn't mentioned in the early tours.

Interesting to look back through this actually: https://www.sportinglife.com/racing...-it-energumene-ferny-hollow-and-allaho/195699

Having another read of it now, Grangeclare west was up there last season before he got injured, another to consider for these novice hurdles but would prefer to wait for an entry first

 

[ToniC]

I know bemoaning antepost prices is an absolute bore that’s done to death every year and if anything the bookies were probably giving too much away a few years ago but 9/4 for the supreme novices? Fucking hell that is shit to the point of being outright unplayable. If you’ll excuse my language. I think this point last year sir g would have been fav at around 6s or 7s?

I just can’t join in at that and will be looking (have been looking, need to belatedly open a 2023 diary I suppose) to get him beat with a few of those at nicer prices.

 

[darlojim]

I know bemoaning antepost prices is an absolute bore that’s done to death every year and if anything the bookies were probably giving too much away a few years ago but 9/4 for the supreme novices? Fucking hell that is shit to the point of being outright unplayable. If you’ll excuse my language. I think this point last year sir g would have been fav at around 6s or 7s?

I just can’t join in at that and will be looking (have been looking, need to belatedly open a 2023 diary I suppose) to get him beat with a few of those at nicer prices.

Worth noting that Sir Gerhard was beaten at Punchestown post Cheltenham though, and many took the view he was 'lucky' to win the champion bumper from a good ride by Rachael. That probably factored heavily into his price, and although the manner of his punchestown win was less, Facile Vega looks as exciting a novice hurdler coming from the bumper ranks, that we have had for a few year.

 

[Exar Essay]

…bit of chat about the Gigginstown owned ShanBally Kid joining W Mullins. 50-1 into 33-1 with 365 for Ballymore, 12-1 from 16-1 any race with Hills.

Polo Lounge, 2nd to Shanbally Kid in that Clonmel bumper, won a bumper at Listowel well enough yesterday. 7/4 fav and did it in the manner you’d expect, no better, but maybe a little form boost for SK.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Worth noting that Sir Gerhard was beaten at Punchestown post Cheltenham though, and many took the view he was 'lucky' to win the champion bumper from a good ride by Rachael. That probably factored heavily into his price, and although the manner of his punchestown win was less, Facile Vega looks as exciting a novice hurdler coming from the bumper ranks, that we have had for a few year.

Probably the most exciting since envoi allen

 

[Lobos]

Luccia.....'Bad incident and fearing the worst'......

Said to be A1 now but anyone aware of what happened to her? I can't remember any news coming out of the stable.

Just highlights the perils of AP betting.

 

[Bollinger]

I know bemoaning antepost prices is an absolute bore that’s done to death every year and if anything the bookies were probably giving too much away a few years ago but 9/4 for the supreme novices? Fucking hell that is shit to the point of being outright unplayable. If you’ll excuse my language. I think this point last year sir g would have been fav at around 6s or 7s?

I just can’t join in at that and will be looking (have been looking, need to belatedly open a 2023 diary I suppose) to get him beat with a few of those at nicer prices.

Agreed to a certain extent of your point here of a very short price, and you’d like to take him on with another at a bigger price, but 99.9% of the time, odds are just compiled on historical evidence.

You go to a bookmaker and show him a few horses that you fancy at decent prices to win next year’s Supreme and the bookie will take you through Facile Vega’s cruises last season over 2 miles. The evidence, thus far, piles up for Facile Vega.

You need to find a horse that shows evidence, or heard of with evidence, that’ll beat Facile Vega. As of yet, there appears to be none that either punter or bookie know of, I would reasonably suggest.

And yes, I acknowledge too he may go the Ballymore route.

It’s no different with Allaho. People say ‘6/4 and 7/4 is ridiculous 6 months out for the Ryanair. The bookies will just tell you theoretically to find a horse that’ll beat him. Prove it, as such.

I agree some odds are short. But unless someone can put a compelling case of a horse against Facile Vega, the liability isn’t going to change.

 

[Lbur4288]

Jet Powered is all set to go novice hurdling this autumn. I know a fair few have him backed for the fez, myself included.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

It’s no different with Allaho. People say ‘6/4 and 7/4 is ridiculous 6 months out for the Ryanair. The bookies will just tell you theoretically to find a horse that’ll beat him. Prove it, as such.

I agree some odds are short. But unless someone can put a compelling case of a horse against Facile Vega, the liability isn’t going to change.

Great post.

There's not much point bemoaning short prices in my opinion.

As you say, so eloquently, they're short for a good reason, and we all know that.

There's two thoughts I have if I think a horse is too short for a race.

A) I think the horse is to short, and the price is an overreaction, so that means that I must be able to find value elsewhere. (or wait for that value to emerge)

OR

B) I think the horse is short for good reason, so I must try and get them onside with doubles/rollups as soon as opportunities present themselves where I see value in another horse.

Its up to me to judge which way is the most realistic answer.

So I want to back the horse via route B, or not back them at all and back against them when value emerges - route A.

The only other way is to not bet in the race at all.
Route C?

I dont bet in all 28 Festival races, so I must use Route C occasionally

 

[Lobos]

Jet Powered is all set to go novice hurdling this autumn. I know a fair few have him backed for the fez, myself included.

Newbury here we come

 

[billymag]

Well it's my opinion (which generally isn't worth paying much attention to, much like the long winded waffle below isn't worth reading to be perfectly honest :highly_amused that he wont, but obviously he can as most things are possible and plenty clearly fancy him. He would have been a good winner in last seasons book after all, you couldn't avoid being impressed by his early season bumper runs. But anyway:

- I'm not overly convinced a huge amount will come out of last seasons champion bumper, even if most of us think the winner will go on to do very well (I accept that if you think that then for the purposes of this debate you have to consider AM a contender). Redemption Day (Posted a better RPR than AM after only 3 runs) put in a cracking performance at Punchestown to make up a little for the disappointment of his Cheltenham run, but was it flattered by FV being tired at the end of the season? AM well behind on that occasion. Out of the three, FV was the only one to run at the DRF, Cheltenham festival and Punchestown, getting the job done on markedly different goings.
- As above, the Punchestown run. Has there been an excuse for it? Even if there was, I tend to err on the side of taking most of them with a pinch of salt. Jamie Codd says in the recently published JTF that he just didn't feel the same on the day. Sir Gerhard gets a pass on his Punchestown runs, AM hasn't earnt such a right yet.
- If Facile Vega goes there (My book would prefer Supreme, but I think i'd make the Ballymore 60/40 the more likely at this stage), it'll quite likely take something special to beat him especially as we know he handles any ground, and I don't see that being AM.
- If Facile Vega doesn't (Just as Min, Douvan and Jonbon didn't of the same sire), It looks like there's an above average mob of pointers about to enter the fray. Walk In The Park, Sholokhov, Presenting, Yeats etc... sire some of the more highly fancied, the sort that warrant keeping a keen eye on, going to the right yards. I'm more interested in finding the right one of those than I am in AM at this stage. But again, I appreciate that's all nothing more than an opinion.
- Mahler at the festival, the evidence is piled pretty high at this point. They probably had their best chance last season given the ground, but both AM and JWM failed. My opinion is pretty much centered around this to be honest, I could have saved writing all the rest but i'm bored :biggrin-new:
- Owners at the festival. Almost certainly not a valid reason but one that potters about at the back of my mind. They seem to spend an awful lot of money on horses that are very good, but not quite good enough. Saying that, take out Bob Olinger and you could look the same way at Robcour, and to an even greater extent. Neither have horses with Mullins though, which does tend to pay to at least consider.

To conclude, if he wins it then fine, but he's just not for me unless he does something beforehand that makes him impossible to ignore. At current prices, I find him easy to ignore for the time being.

American Mike Scoped dirty after Punchestown

 

[ToniC]

Agreed to a certain extent of your point here of a very short price, and you’d like to take him on with another at a bigger price, but 99.9% of the time, odds are just compiled on historical evidence.

You go to a bookmaker and show him a few horses that you fancy at decent prices to win next year’s Supreme and the bookie will take you through Facile Vega’s cruises last season over 2 miles. The evidence, thus far, piles up for Facile Vega.

You need to find a horse that shows evidence, or heard of with evidence, that’ll beat Facile Vega. As of yet, there appears to be none that either punter or bookie know of, I would reasonably suggest.

And yes, I acknowledge too he may go the Ballymore route.

It’s no different with Allaho. People say ‘6/4 and 7/4 is ridiculous 6 months out for the Ryanair. The bookies will just tell you theoretically to find a horse that’ll beat him. Prove it, as such.

I agree some odds are short. But unless someone can put a compelling case of a horse against Facile Vega, the liability isn’t going to change.

7/4 Allaho Ryanair shows exactly what a bad price FV supreme is at 9/4 imo…

 

[Lobos]

7/4 Allaho Ryanair shows exactly what a bad price FV supreme is at 9/4 imo…

If we knew FV was targeting the Supreme, would 9/4 then seem about right ? I wonder how much money has been placed on him for the race and how much more has been placed on him for the opener over the Ballymore.
6/4 to win any race is the way to go if you've not already had a bet and are desperate to have a single on him.

 

[Odin]

If we knew FV was targeting the Supreme, would 9/4 then seem about right ? I wonder how much money has been placed on him for the race and how much more has been placed on him for the opener over the Ballymore.
6/4 to win any race is the way to go if you've not already had a bet and are desperate to have a single on him.

I can't help but wonder if it's probably more liability management for all the Bumper and Any Race doubles that has caused him to go so short. If so, it's understandable from a risk management perspective and there's no reason for anyone to go standout 4/1 even if many others are around the 2/1, 5/2 mark.

I'm not backing him atm but agree that 6/4 any race over 9/4 supreme is definitely the way to go if I do

 

[FinalFurlong91]

If we knew FV was targeting the Supreme, would 9/4 then seem about right ? I wonder how much money has been placed on him for the race and how much more has been placed on him for the opener over the Ballymore.
6/4 to win any race is the way to go if you've not already had a bet and are desperate to have a single on him.

6/4 any race is soooo short though

Nobody in their right mind would take that would they?

7 months before the race

Never jumped a hurdle in public

A division where a superstar regularly turns up out of knowhere with no proper bumper form

You'll find better 6/4 bets running at Wolverhampton on a Wednesday night

 

[ComplyOrDie]

6/4 any race is soooo short though

Indeed. You'd want that for Facile Vega to even make the festival, IMO.

I'm much more inclined to go with my gut and opinion and back the race I think he'll end up in. In this case, the Ballymore.