2023 Novice Hurdlers

[Benjy23]

Marine National is 2/5 tomorrow! Be looking for a very comfortable win.

 

[DenmanSacre]

Marine National is 2/5 tomorrow! Be looking for a very comfortable win.

I was wondering what the bookies would open eith. The odds forecast on Sporting Life had Santonito at 6/4 and Marine Nationale at 7/4 last night. Consistently awful with their forecasts where they may as well not bother.
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[Kevloaf]

Crickey, I know Santonito wasn't dining at the top table in bumpers, but form looked solid enough didn't it!

Hasn't stopped me backing the hype train but this might serve as an early season reminder as to sit on my hands

 

[JackieMoon33]

Crickey, I know Santonito wasn't dining at the top table in bumpers, but form looked solid enough didn't it!

Hasn't stopped me backing the hype train but this might serve as an early season reminder as to sit on my hands

Santonito kept bumping into above average horses to be fair and he never lost by much and always went down fighting. Up in trip over hurdles and he could improve a fair bit. He was also a four year old store so very inexperienced.

 

[Kevloaf]

Santonito kept bumping into above average horses to be fair and he never lost by much and always went down fighting. Up in trip over hurdles and he could improve a fair bit. He was also a four year old store so very inexperienced.

He's on my Albert Bartlett shortlist (not backed) ... definitely not one to rush in to, intersting to see how he takes to them and if he looks natural.

Hve you given your thoughts anywhere JM on novice hurdlers... will give that a read if so :encouragement:

 

[JackieMoon33]

I put some early thoughts here

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat...tenham-2023-early-fancies?p=369895#post369895

Right now, if I was backing three using my approach (+12/1) I’d probably land on the following:

Supreme
Imagine
Quais De Paris
Jet Powered

Ballymore
An Tobar
Fact To File
Gaelic Warrior

Albert Bartlett
Rath Gaul Boy
Tag Man
Icare D’aubrelle (struggling to decide on his trip)

Triumph
Risk Belle
Bo Zenith
tbc

Others
Got Glory - Mares Novice Hurdle
Saint Felicien - Turners Novice Chase
Irish Point - novice hurdle but undecided

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Like a lot of them JackieMoon33 :encouragement:

Fact To File fascinates me. I was initally thinking he'd be one for a handicap, but now you need 4 runs to get a mark for them this may force their hand to go down the graded route. He's one I'd like to see out sooner rather than later as I have plans for his potential handicap target should that be the case.

 

[Kevloaf]

I put some early thoughts here

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat...tenham-2023-early-fancies?p=369895#post369895

Right now, if I was backing three using my approach (+12/1) I’d probably land on the following:

Supreme
Imagine
Quais De Paris
Jet Powered

Ballymore
An Tobar
Fact To File
Gaelic Warrior

Albert Bartlett
Rath Gaul Boy
Tag Man
Icare D’aubrelle (struggling to decide on his trip)

Triumph
Risk Belle
Bo Zenith
tbc

Others
Got Glory - Mares Novice Hurdle
Saint Felicien - Turners Novice Chase
Irish Point - novice hurdle but undecided

Excellent. Thanks Sir.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Like a lot of them JackieMoon33 :encouragement:

Fact To File fascinates me. I was initally thinking he'd be one for a handicap, but now you need 4 runs to get a mark for them this may force their hand to go down the graded route. He's one I'd like to see out sooner rather than later as I have plans for his potential handicap target should that be the case.

I’m hoping he’s better than a handicapper. It’s tough to know given the colours, but I sometimes think that can be a bluff and we forget JP wants runners in those big races.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Excellent. Thanks Sir.

I’ve got more detailed notes on them all of you need some substance.

 

[Lobos]

Crickey, I know Santonito wasn't dining at the top table in bumpers, but form looked solid enough didn't it!

Hasn't stopped me backing the hype train but this might serve as an early season reminder as to sit on my hands

His Bumper form does appear on paper to be way ahead of MN doesn't it. Thats not to say MN could easily live up to his trainers bullish remarks. Santonito got narrowly beat by three of Mullins including a future Festival winner in The Nice Guy and a Festival Bumper 4th behind the second coming Facile Vega. He then beat a Mullins Bumper hot pot to lose his maiden tag before being put away. IMO, he should be favourite to win today on that form even accounting for him potentially needing a step up in trip later. It'll be a tough start for Marine Nationale and if he comes through it successfully then on a line through Santonito's form then it'll be a very nice start.

 

[Winging The Last]

To me Marine Nationale could be this season's My Mate Mozzie. From a smaller yard, comes out early to try and win a few decent races early in the season before the big Stables send out their big guns. His main target will be the Royall Bond I suspect.

MMM won the same race last year before winning a G3 at Navan in November and then 2nd in the Royal Bond. In the end came 8th in the County at Cheltenham

 

[FinalFurlong91]

To me Marine Nationale could be this season's My Mate Mozzie. From a smaller yard, comes out early to try and win a few decent races early in the season before the big Stables send out their big guns. His main target will be the Royall Bond I suspect.

MMM won the same race last year before winning a G3 at Navan in November and then 2nd in the Royal Bond. In the end came 8th in the County at Cheltenham

Agreed

He will win a few races this side of Christmas then get swatted aside by the mullins big guns after

 

[charlie]

Agreed

He will win a few races this side of Christmas then get swatted aside by the mullins big guns after

Both really good posts and essential punters get their heads around this before backing horses for Cheltenham. So easy to get sucked into October winners (I already have with 1) but it pays to be patient and wait for the class.

 

[robith]

Hurdles debut date for last 11 winners of the Ballymore

Sir Gerhard - 26 Dec
Bob Olinger - 2 Nov
City Island - 1 Aug (seasonal debut 26 Dec)
Samcro - 19 Oct
Willoughby Court - 3 Nov
Yorkhill - 6 Dec
Windsor Park - 29 Dec
Faugheen - 17 Nov
The New One - 1 Oct
Simonsig - 18 Nov

So October can be done, but it's tended to be later (though perhaps outcome bias due to large amount of WIllie runners?)

 

[Lobos]

Agreed

He will win a few races this side of Christmas then get swatted aside by the mullins big guns after

If he wins impressively today, the sad thing is JP will probably buy him and he'll end up at Mullins or Henderson's. Maybe that's why the trainer is hyping him up, to get his profile up and be noticed. The trainer owns him as well so ?250,000+ will help him no end.

 

[Exar Essay]

That was impressive from Marine Nationale. Mighty keen, a little green, and won it on the snaff.

 

[Olliemagern]

Lovely first round over hurdles that. And way he let them come up to him and just went away was nice. Not sure there’s a lot in behind but decent introduction

 

[ComplyOrDie]

He's not beat much, but he couldn't have done it any easier. A very nice start from Marine Nationale, there.

Trip? Anyone's guess. Looked as though he could have gone round again though.

 

[Atlantic Viking]

He couldn't have done that much easier, like he was in his own little World. Very tidy round of jumping for a first timer.