2022 Novice Chase Division

[OverTheLast]

I'd love it if he had a light season over hurdles then went novice chasing in 18 months time.

 

[Cashew King]

Dusart would be close to top of my list if they go over fences

Mine too, but what distance? I’d assumed they’d follow the Simonsig route & go 2 mile Arkle but Hendo’s blog today makes me wonder:

“I am very keen to step him up in trip but I just thought the two and a half looked very competitive for him at this stage of his career so we’re opting for the minimum trip but I must admit I am still a little bit nervous keeping him at two miles because he will be better over further.”

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Sounds like Nicholls is preferring hurdles next season with Monmiral. With the Fighting Fifth earmarked as a starting point next season. Says 5 year olds struggle in novice chases so may want to wait till 5/6 season.

Said this in the Racing TV interview after the race

I think he is spot on , too.

There’s more chance of a 5yo making a splash in 2M Grade 1 Hurdles than winning an Arkle.

He could easily try to “do a Footpad” who as a 4yo, rising 5, had a year in Graded open hurdles, ran well in the Champion Hurdle, then switched to fences the following season and took the novice 2M Chase division, and the Arkle, apart.

I have backed him for the Champion Hurdle, over the Arkle, for this reason, for small stakes, just in case he goes a neck better than Celestial Halo did for the trainer, and wins the Champion Hurdle as a 5yo in a photo, rather than get beaten in a photo.

 

[Lobos]

Mine too, but what distance? I’d assumed they’d follow the Simonsig route & go 2 mile Arkle but Hendo’s blog today makes me wonder:

“I am very keen to step him up in trip but I just thought the two and a half looked very competitive for him at this stage of his career so we’re opting for the minimum trip but I must admit I am still a little bit nervous keeping him at two miles because he will be better over further.”

I wouldn't worry too much as they said the same about Shishkin stepping up in distance in his novice hurdling year.

 

[The King Pimm]

If I was Nicholls I would give Monmiral another season over hurdles and not aim to over race him. I keep forgetting how young he is and he could be immense as a 6yr over fences.

 

[Quevega]

I think Nicholls would be making a mistake going hurdling, as he's not a hurdler whatsoever.
He's one of the more obvious horses in training that looks like a chaser, trying to jump hurdles slickly.
It'd be like Sprinter Sacre having a second season over hurdles. Ridiculous.

I disagree with the 5 year old thing, and in recent years they have actually mopped up some very nice graded races and for want of better rides in the arkle itself, may have gone closer. They've (5yr old french breds) gone close in the Marsh also, from very limited numbers who've tried.
He's French bred also, so whilst a horse like Defi came back from an abomination of a 5 yr old hurdle campaign and won his novice chase, he has gone downhill since.
You can look at it 2 ways, that they wasted a season, or that the extra year being an also ran hurdler helped him.

Sounds like Nichols is keeping his options open also with an attempt at a grade one hurdle early in the season, then a possible switch to fences if he's found out.
Reminds me very much how he's campaigned horses in recent years without it really paying off. Probably not as good as this one though.
Mcfabulous is not even priced up in many places for novice chasing next season.

For a trainer that won a tingle creek with a 5yr old French bred and a Champion Chase with another 5yr old French bred.
He's talking absolute bollocks and seems to be his typical post race excitement, thinking he has a champion hurdler. And can pick up decent prize money.

The jockey was right when he was asked about the champion hurdle straight after the race.

"I'd rather see him jump a fence"

was his response.
Too fucking right.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I think that Paul Nicholls knows (like we all do) that the 2M Open Grade 1 Hurdle division is tissue-paper thin, so its worth one race at least, to test the water.

Its been shockingly weak in Britain for a while now, and theres good money to be won without meeting too much to worry anyone (this far out).

It seems to be his play to mop up prize-money before the Festival, and at Aintree, and there's far more money to be won in Grade 1 hurdles than any Novice chases.

I can see the logic in having a stab at the division, if it doesnt work well enough first time out, then he can consider a switch at Christmas to Novice Chasing, which covers one of Q's points about that decision being made after a Grade 1 hurdle run.

 

[Native River]

Added Gallhill half point e/w with 365 for the RSA (Well Brown I guess), at 50/1. Think its a price that could be gone come this evening with him running well today and his run at Ascot suggests he will need to go up in trip so the 3 mile option at Cheltenham would look the logical choice

 

[Big Chac]

I've cashed Dusart, does anyone fancy him much for next season? Looks a big chaser in the making but up to 2.5miles he'll probably have to the on bob Olinger or Appreciate it. Understand it was only his 2nd run and coming back from injury but he'll be well below the Irish next year for me.

 

[Lobos]

I've cashed Dusart, does anyone fancy him much for next season? Looks a big chaser in the making but up to 2.5miles he'll probably have to the on bob Olinger or Appreciate it. Understand it was only his 2nd run and coming back from injury but he'll be well below the Irish next year for me.

For me he looked big before the race and definitely looked as if he needed it . That said he did very well to finish a close up 3rd in what was a searching pace. He looked very raw but that was understandable as he was taking on vastly more experienced horses and had some good ones well beat in behind. If they ran the race again in a month he'd be the winner in my view. He jumped big over his hurdles so already looks as though a fence will improve him no end. To finish that close over 2 miles on a tight track on quick ground on just his second run after coming back from a bad muscle tear was a superb effort. 2 miles over fences on softer ground and a stiffer track will be perfect for him imo.

 

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

For me he looked big before the race and definitely looked as if he needed it . That said he did very well to finish a close up 3rd in what was a searching pace. He looked very raw but that was understandable as he was taking on vastly more experienced horses and had some good ones well beat in behind. If they ran the race again in a month he'd be the winner in my view. He jumped big over his hurdles so already looks as though a fence will improve him no end. To finish that close over 2 miles on a tight track on quick ground on just his second run after coming back from a bad muscle tear was a superb effort. 2 miles over fences on softer ground and a stiffer track will be perfect for him imo.

What concerned me most about Dusart’s performance was how he had to be pushed along almost the whole way. That would suggest to me he needs a step up in trip. Moreover, Henderson is talking about 2.5miles too. I don’t think he’ll be Arkle bound after that. I like him though and would like him on side.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

For me he looked big before the race and definitely looked as if he needed it . That said he did very well to finish a close up 3rd in what was a searching pace. He looked very raw but that was understandable as he was taking on vastly more experienced horses and had some good ones well beat in behind. If they ran the race again in a month he'd be the winner in my view. He jumped big over his hurdles so already looks as though a fence will improve him no end. To finish that close over 2 miles on a tight track on quick ground on just his second run after coming back from a bad muscle tear was a superb effort. 2 miles over fences on softer ground and a stiffer track will be perfect for him imo.

All makes sense, but with all that in mind how was he allowed to go off a short price in arguably the worst G1 race I can remember...

 

[Saxon Warrior]

All makes sense, but with all that in mind how was he allowed to go off a short price in arguably the worst G1 race I can remember...

Maybe there should be Grade 1's and Grade 1* - Stars (Like exam results A and A*, when kids took exams last)

Most Grade 1's in novice company away from big meetings in Britain are shocking.

The Tolworth and the Challow Hurdles are so bad, and lacking depth, with terrible prize-money that they should be threatened with downgraded to Grade 2 if they dont attract better runners next season (from UK and Ireland).

The only way to do it, is double the prize-money to a minimum of GBP 40K to GBP 50K first prize.

They were both much worse than any of the Novice Hurdle Grade 1's at Aintree this week, and always are.

Apart from one good horse in each of these races, the rest that are decent and could run (or be starting their season earlier to potentially contest it), dont run in it, as they are Grade 1's paying Grade 2 prize money to the winners.

Challow paid GBP 23K to the winner this year (It was only GBP 25K to the winner pre-Covid)
Tolworth paid GBP 20K to the winner this year (It was only GBP 28K to the winner pre-Covid)

Theres no incentive in monetary terms for any novice hurdler in Britain to run in a proper Grade 1 race until Cheltenham, because there isnt one thats worth anything.

The prize money does nothing to promote competition in this division until mid-March and April, and thats it.

That is the main reason that British Novice Hurdlers get stuffed most of the time in Cheltenham festival Grade 1 Novice hurdles.

The three Grade 1 2M Novice Hurdlers that were run in Ireland pre-Cheltenham paid GBP 36K, GBP 41K and GBP 67K to the winner.
(Ballyadam ran in them all and pocketed GBP 75K for a win and 2 seconds - that's x3.5 Challow wins)

At the same period, the UK has only 1 Grade 1 Novice hurdle paying GBP 20K to the winner!!!!!

No wonder the owners stable their horse in Ireland, picking up very good money, and any only come to England for the good prize money in March and April.

It looks wrong to train/own valuable Novice Hurdlers in Britain.
That will stay the same until prize money changes.

We have it very wrong, and Ireland has it right.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Maybe there should be Grade 1's and Grade 1* - Stars (Like exam results A and A*, when kids took exams last)

Most Grade 1's in novice company away from big meetings in Britain are shocking.

The Tolworth and the Challow Hurdles are so bad, and lacking depth, with terrible prize-money that they should be threatened with downgraded to Grade 2 if they dont attract better runners next season (from UK and Ireland).

Agree, perennial bad races, but for me that affair yesterday was as bad as I can remember.
The winner wasn't good enough to get in the County Hurdle until the UK handicapper taxed him, he got up late to win that off 129, the runner up yesterday was having his 8th hurdle start so is about as exposed as a novice hurdler can get.
At least the winner won well and may well go onto carving out a decent career, the rest will in my opinion never be better than handicappers...

 

[Hurricane fly]

I’m really against novices being able to run in handicaps.

I don’t think the handicapper helps at all as if you run in a grade 1 it seems like there is an automatic penalty no matter how you run. I think this causes most of our grade 1s to be small fields which again doesn’t help.

The challow had 5 runners, the supreme trial at Ascot had 6. You see it in almost all of the UK grade 1s to be honest, Tingle Creek had 5, Desert Orchid 6. Christmas Hurdle 5. It goes on and on, and becomes a vicious circle. Why would you sponsor a big race with big money for 5 runners?

 

[Lobos]

What concerned me most about Dusart’s performance was how he had to be pushed along almost the whole way. That would suggest to me he needs a step up in trip. Moreover, Henderson is talking about 2.5miles too. I don’t think he’ll be Arkle bound after that. I like him though and would like him on side.

Maybe. Could also have been pushed along due to his greeness/ inexperience v the others and his fitness levels.

 

[Bonjers]

My Drogo is a serious, serious prospect. That was superb.

 

[charlie]

Delighted to have 28 and 25 in the book for My Drogo. 10 now for the RSA and easy to see why. He's an exciting prospect

 

[charlie]

My Drogo is a serious, serious prospect. That was superb.

Bizarre to me that EC mentioned the Arkle and he's blue for Arkle. Looks all over an RSA horse to me and by Milan too.

 

[Eggs]

....My Drogo still 8-1 in Sky a/r market, could be the way to go given how short it is for the novice Chase options.