• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

2022 Gold Cup

  • Thread starter Thread starter Deleted member 4957
  • Start date Start date
Istabraq said:
To be fair it’s a great opportunity to press, if he jumps 2 out 10l off leader and not trying everyone should be smashing the 25s for the National, if he looks a trier and goes past the field approaching the last hit the Gold Cup button
Click to expand...

Already hit both as I'm shopping that day
 
I've got a toilet seat with him on.
 
jono said:
Half tempted with the following

Brahma Bull and Galvin (XC) double @ 34/1
Brahma Bull and Galvin (GN) double @ 70.5/1
Click to expand...

I like this a lot - though that’s almost certainly confirmation bias.
 
I'm very hopeful A Plus Tard can follow up his second place last season and go one better this season.

I'm not sure the novices hold a strong hand at all now Monkfish is out for the season.

Envoi Allen, I still hold onto the hope that he can fulfil the promise but he needs to first prove he's ok following an injury. Second, improve on his 163 rating. And then three, prove he stays the 3m2 distance.

Chantry House on paper looks just the type to turn into a contender for the race. But i'm yet to be convinced from any of his runs last season. He won two grade ones for virtue of staying up for me.

I don't see anyone else from the Marsh even running in the race. And it was probably one of the worst RSA's for a while, probably 2015 and Don Poli. Eklat de Rire is a free shot at 66/1 with cashout. I'm tempted to add, and I really should for such little risk. The Irish grade 1 3 mile trials can often have big outsiders fill the frame. And if he did that his price plummets. But i'm fairly sure it won't come to anything.

So i'm very much looking at the 1-2 in last seasons race. I'll admit I jumped ship from Minella Indo and onto A Plus Tard as the season progressed. I was delighted to be proved wrong. Minella Indo will on all known evidence meet defeat between now the and festival. But i'm not sure his price will increase considerably. It's well known just how much improvement he shows at the festival, year after year. Whilst I'd love to hold off and back him after a defeat at a bigger price. I think you're probably only talking a couple of points max. The hope is that Bet365 or another go big straight after in a move against cashing out.

Back onto A Plus Tard. He ran a huge race. In the past I was quick to dismiss horses coming back for another shot at the race. I refused to consider Native River in 2018, despite the ground conditions coming into his favour for that sole reason. So since then i've been far more open to the possibility of a horse doing so.

APT, having run for much of his career over 2- 2 1/2miles should be relatively lightly raced in staying chases. A look at the last 8 winners of the race shows:

Minella Indo - Won on his 7th 3m run over fences
Al Boum Photo - 3rd and 5th
Native River - 9th
Sizing John - 2nd
Don Cossack - 9th
Coneygree - 3rd
Lord Windermere - 5th
Bobs Worth - 5th

The Gold Cup was only his 3rd run over 3miles. And with a light campaign of just the Betfair Chase and Savills Chase this season lined up. Would see him line up in the Gold Cup on only his 6th run over 3 miles. The worry that the races may have taken their toll shouldn't be there, on the face of it.

Importantly 7 year olds have performed very well in the race and plenty have gone on to actually improve on:

Al Boum Photo - Won the Gold Cup at 7. Followed the winning again at 8 years old
Native River - 3rd at 7 years old. Won the race as an 8 year old
Sizing John - Won at 7 years old. Didn't get a chance to follow up the year after but followed up by winning the Punchestown Gold Cup plus the following season John Durkan
Sir des Champs - 2nd at 7 years old. Didn't get a chance to follow up the year after but followed up by winning the Punchestown Gold Cup
Minella Rocco - 2nd at 7 years old. Didn't get chance to follow up.
Djakadam - 2nd at 6 and 7 years old. Then 4th at 8 years old.

For me there's every reason to think he'll be one of the main challengers once again come March.
And no major concern that he may have missed his chance in the race. As his age, a career over shorter distances to date and relative unexposed profile over 3 miles still could see him improve through the new season again.

For me there's not much between him and Minella Indo. I think the 4 points difference is slightly too large between the pair.
And I also think the fact Chantry House, the third favourite for the race is ony 4 points bigger is also wrong.
 
  • Like
Reactions: YoungHustler, Faugheen_Machine, OscarWhisky and 1 other person
A plus tard needs to brush up his jumping

Hes a bit slow getting from A to B

it cost him in the ryanair and in the gold cup
 
opatcho said:
Slower ground in March to help him out? Been lucky the last two seasons to have good ground.
Will rewatch his win in the ex-Lexus, see if he jumped cleaner
Click to expand...

It was not so much how clean his jumps were

Watch the gold cup he was just a bit slow getting into stride after jumping each fence towards the end

Minella indo was making a length at least at every fence
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: opatcho and Eudipe
Paddy Power cut a full 5 points off Galvin's GN price which must mean he loses today right ?? So we all should cash in GC bets and top up on GN yeah ?? I love this game.
 
HDB on Eklat De Rire 'The plan with him is the second-season chaser race at Wexford later this month that Minella Indo won last season. He has a step up to make to get in amongst the best staying chasers, but he has more improvement in him, and I’d be hopeful that he can take a strong step forward'.

I've used another free bet @ 66/1. Lets hope HDB is right
 
charlie said:
HDB on Eklat De Rire 'The plan with him is the second-season chaser race at Wexford later this month that Minella Indo won last season. He has a step up to make to get in amongst the best staying chasers, but he has more improvement in him, and I’d be hopeful that he can take a strong step forward'.

I've used another free bet @ 66/1. Lets hope HDB is right
Click to expand...

For those that have backed him, Its exactly what you wanted to hear.
 
Lobos said:
For those that have backed him, Its exactly what you wanted to hear.
Click to expand...

Yep. So unexposed already 152 and expecting a big step forward surely you'd be hopeful he's a proper lurker. Doesn't always work that way though as we know lol.
 
jack1092 said:
Yep. So unexposed already 152 and expecting a big step forward surely you'd be hopeful he's a proper lurker. Doesn't always work that way though as we know lol.
Click to expand...

I'm really excited about EDR. I genuinely thought he'd serve it up to Monkfish and the manner of the RSA win was frustrating because he may just well have, but we'll never know. He's very unexposed for a 152 rated novice chaser and if he steps forward I think he could be a GC player, but long way to go and he needs to do his talking on track.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ToniC
charlie said:
I'm really excited about EDR.
Click to expand...

You’d have to like Escaria Ten as well no ?
Where that one heads I have no idea, mark probably makes handicaps out of the question but whether he can take the leap to G1 open company is another thing and you would have to forgive him a poor effort after his close NH Chase third…
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom