germanshepherd
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Captain Guiness, Embittered and Blackbow were close enough to Energumene 2 out. Shihskin should win if he's in a similar position.
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I’m all over Shiskin in doubles/trebles with monkfish and envoi,so rightly or wrongly have now put a decent bet on the 2nd fav with monkfish and envoi to hopefully keep me in profit overall,anyone else went down this way of thinking?
Prior to the weekend run and also after I added the w/o shishkin for Energumene to multis.
If shishkin is beat it may help soften the blow of all the doubles trebles etc I’m sure we all have on.
Don’t see anything else getting close to those 2 imo.
Eggs
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....nice that Hills offered 50-1 for Energumene ‘to win today & a/r’ on its chasing bow not so long ago. It’s come a long way in a short space of time.
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Ye I had to get energumene on side in some shape! .....got decent enough prices for Shiskin with the other 2 so just praying like most on here for a Shiskin win to start the ball rolling!
Yeah I was interested to hear others opinions but a treble with monkfish and envoi seemed the only real way to go. Im happy to ignore chacun for now as the returns are the biggest with shiskin and monk/envoi
Geordieboy83
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I think they will go off quite close in terms of betting on the day, I fully expect Shiskin to still remain fav on the day. Skeletons lunatic Allmankind is going to go off like the clappers and I think Nico will just sit back and wait.
In my opinion Shishkin lbs any going still wins.
In my opinion Shishkin lbs any going still wins.
Eireman
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I really don't see how people are still falling into the trap that heavy ground does not suit Shishkin.
Yes it is true that most horses with the turn of foot he has have it negated somewhat by heavy ground but I think we have seen enough now from him in his run at Newbury and last year in the supreme where the ground was testing and he drifted as a result to know that it doesnt effect his turn of foot in the same way it does others.
I think it's more of an unknown if his cruising speed is good enough on good ground to keep up with the pace than if his turn of foot is going to be negated by heavy ground. There is zero possibility due to the liability bookies will have already taken on him that he doesn't go off fav.
Yes it is true that most horses with the turn of foot he has have it negated somewhat by heavy ground but I think we have seen enough now from him in his run at Newbury and last year in the supreme where the ground was testing and he drifted as a result to know that it doesnt effect his turn of foot in the same way it does others.
I think it's more of an unknown if his cruising speed is good enough on good ground to keep up with the pace than if his turn of foot is going to be negated by heavy ground. There is zero possibility due to the liability bookies will have already taken on him that he doesn't go off fav.
Ray
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yeah he was 5/2 without shishkin! I tried to get him rolled up with some football bets but no luck! But i backed him with appreicate it 5/2 and monkfish 2/1 so was happy with that!
jack1092
Member
I haven't specifically looked back to 2 out, but think i remember it, and while they were closer at 2 out, they were not when it mattered. The difference for me between Energumene and the likes of UDS is, Energumene doesn't have to burn them off in the middle section of the races, he finishes so strongly as well.
It was a shame Captain Guinness fell on Saturday as it would have been interesting to see how it panned out. He seemed to be running a better race as was managing to keep beside Energumene most of the time. 4 out is when Energumene looked to up the tempo.
He ‘jumped’ alongside Energumene at 2 out where he fell, just didn’t pick up at all. Now we’ll never know but he would have to be a bit special as well to be able to have beaten him from there as the way Energumene finished he had them all at it bar possibly Blackbow until the last but was already 3/4 lengths up. CG falling possibly hampered them a little in behind when trying to get closer to Energumene but imo I don’t think it would have mattered.
Going to be an absolute cracker after what looks a very ordinary opening race of the festival.
He ‘jumped’ alongside Energumene at 2 out where he fell, just didn’t pick up at all. Now we’ll never know but he would have to be a bit special as well to be able to have beaten him from there as the way Energumene finished he had them all at it bar possibly Blackbow until the last but was already 3/4 lengths up. CG falling possibly hampered them a little in behind when trying to get closer to Energumene but imo I don’t think it would have mattered.
Going to be an absolute cracker after what looks a very ordinary opening race of the festival.
Priceiskey
Previous Lurker
Anybody know if Captain Guiness is ok after his tumble and still planning to go down this route?
Will be very interested in allmankinds performance this weekend, been going through times and speed figures for this race over the past week since energs demolition job in dublin.
If amk wins and wins well ,will be quite likely his rating will go up to 159 -162 this puts him approx 4 behind shiskin and 3 behind energ.
Putting all factors into consideration and the fact shiskin and energ will improve again in the arkle to around 170 -174 this will equate if we get good to soft / soft to 6/7 lengths !! If amk runs to or improves his mark in the arkle with a soft lead he should be still there after the last on ratings and the way the race will be run, very small margins and come race day he will probably go off at around 12/1 or bigger due to the money going on the other two. I would be happy to take 3 or 7/2 a place.
Would love.to see him run a big race this weekend and a somid round on jumping to.make the arkle even more interesting.
If amk wins and wins well ,will be quite likely his rating will go up to 159 -162 this puts him approx 4 behind shiskin and 3 behind energ.
Putting all factors into consideration and the fact shiskin and energ will improve again in the arkle to around 170 -174 this will equate if we get good to soft / soft to 6/7 lengths !! If amk runs to or improves his mark in the arkle with a soft lead he should be still there after the last on ratings and the way the race will be run, very small margins and come race day he will probably go off at around 12/1 or bigger due to the money going on the other two. I would be happy to take 3 or 7/2 a place.
Would love.to see him run a big race this weekend and a somid round on jumping to.make the arkle even more interesting.
Appreciate It isn't ordinary
The Ferny Hollow / Appreciate It Arkle / Marsh doubles are already getting lined up :highly_amused:
Yeah Captain Guinness is a price now where you could just chance him each way... he was hugely over estimated prior to the Supreme given his lack of experience, of course he didn't get chance to actually finish the race so can't crow too loudly, however, whilst crabbing his Supreme chance a lot last year, the caveat was always that I will respect him much more in the Arkle...and I still do.
He's probably a good bet in the without Shishkin market, each way.... as even if Energumene is better than him, Energumene MIGHT try so hard to beat Shishkin he falls in a hole?
CG - 33/1 in a place, that's alright isn't it! On balance.... I can see the appeal.
opatcho
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Yeah, tell me about it
I backed Shishkin after the Gold Cup, had cash in one of my accounts and decided to invest it. Been able to get onto Energumene at 5/1 to cover my initial outlay and profit, and was able to double Energumene with Appreciate It. Gives me some flex, if Appreicate It wins then I look at cashing out my single, or leave my single in and cash out whilst in-play.
Appreciate It isn't ordinary
The Ferny Hollow / Appreciate It Arkle / Marsh doubles are already getting lined up :highly_amused:
Yeah Captain Guinness is a price now where you could just chance him each way... he was hugely over estimated prior to the Supreme given his lack of experience, of course he didn't get chance to actually finish the race so can't crow too loudly, however, whilst crabbing his Supreme chance a lot last year, the caveat was always that I will respect him much more in the Arkle...and I still do.
He's probably a good bet in the without Shishkin market, each way.... as even if Energumene is better than him, Energumene MIGHT try so hard to beat Shishkin he falls in a hole?
CG - 33/1 in a place, that's alright isn't it! On balance.... I can see the appeal.
Haha agree he doesn’t, the rest of the field however.......meh :biggrin-new:
He has been quite frustrating already over fences hasn’t he? A fall (with heart issue), wins nicely, beaten fairly by Energumene and then a fall again :boxing: you mention the w/o shishkin could be a good shout each way, I agree, although wouldn’t get too involved (only 12/1) and I’m still sort of expecting a one trip to the racecourse for Klassical Dream and then Arkle :biggrin-new:
That would fill the first 3/4 positions with the 2 at the top of the market Allmankind and KD but then again KD might not even appear.
Ice
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EnvoyAllen
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I still feel, that the way into the Energumene market for this year, is actually with next year’s market?
I’ve already made my point on this, and don’t really wish to cover all ground, but........
Unless anyone here is on Energumene at fancy prices of upwards of 20/1 which I doubt 95-98% of the community are not (I’m sure I’ll hear from the 2-5% which are) - the current 9/4 - 11/4 prices of enabling to make a play on Energumene, if you are a Shishkin backer, a difficult proposition. It’s not really a financially viable way into the market, without staking decent points.
So why wouldn’t anyone not decide to take the 12’s (I took the 16’s three days ago) on Energumene to win next year’s Champion Chase, or the 25/1 for him to win next year’s Ryanair?
For me, I genuinely feel next year’s market for Energumene is the entry point for this year’s?
If Energumene gets beaten by Shishkin, you’re more than likely sitting on a 25/1 slip for him for next year’s Ryanair, plus you’ll have all of your Shishkin winnings.
And indeed if he topples Shishkin, you are extremely likely to be sitting on a 12/1 slip for him for next year’s Champ Chase.
(I’m taking Allmankind out of this, just for now).
Agreed, a lot of us are aware that WP Mullins has more than hinted Energumene is much more suited to at least the intermediate distance as a chaser. But then, 3 months ago Appreciate It was only heading towards one race.
And it wasn’t the Supreme.
So whilst I sincerely appreciate many folk do not like to look too far ahead, with Energumene’s prohibitive price in the market now making it difficult to find a way in (unless doubled up), I genuinely feel taking advantage of next year’s markets for Energumene, allows flexibility to cover for this year, and still allow the opportunity to hopefully enjoy any profits on Shishkin, for the majority of this community who are backers.
I’ve already made my point on this, and don’t really wish to cover all ground, but........
Unless anyone here is on Energumene at fancy prices of upwards of 20/1 which I doubt 95-98% of the community are not (I’m sure I’ll hear from the 2-5% which are) - the current 9/4 - 11/4 prices of enabling to make a play on Energumene, if you are a Shishkin backer, a difficult proposition. It’s not really a financially viable way into the market, without staking decent points.
So why wouldn’t anyone not decide to take the 12’s (I took the 16’s three days ago) on Energumene to win next year’s Champion Chase, or the 25/1 for him to win next year’s Ryanair?
For me, I genuinely feel next year’s market for Energumene is the entry point for this year’s?
If Energumene gets beaten by Shishkin, you’re more than likely sitting on a 25/1 slip for him for next year’s Ryanair, plus you’ll have all of your Shishkin winnings.
And indeed if he topples Shishkin, you are extremely likely to be sitting on a 12/1 slip for him for next year’s Champ Chase.
(I’m taking Allmankind out of this, just for now).
Agreed, a lot of us are aware that WP Mullins has more than hinted Energumene is much more suited to at least the intermediate distance as a chaser. But then, 3 months ago Appreciate It was only heading towards one race.
And it wasn’t the Supreme.
So whilst I sincerely appreciate many folk do not like to look too far ahead, with Energumene’s prohibitive price in the market now making it difficult to find a way in (unless doubled up), I genuinely feel taking advantage of next year’s markets for Energumene, allows flexibility to cover for this year, and still allow the opportunity to hopefully enjoy any profits on Shishkin, for the majority of this community who are backers.
That doesn't make any sense, it's an oxymoron.
To humour you, I disagree, the without Shishkin market is a so obviously a better way in to the market "this year" too. In fact. I'm not even carrying on.
So tired of reading this nonsense. So many holes that are so basic that you just ignore.
Pick another and log in.
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