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2021 Arkle Novices Chase

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Atlantic Viking said:
Shishkin on the drift, evens now with PP/Betfair
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They've a few they have pushed out slightly, Concertista out to 5/4, Epatante out to 7/2, and others as well.

No concern for me, I suspect trying to even out their books at a guess.
 
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This race looks like cutting up badly with very few horses wanting to take on the front 3 in the market. It looks like there may only be 5 or 6 runners (if prices on Betfair are to be believed) and ew terms on the day wouldn't stretch to 3 places.

It’s hard to see beyond the front pair in the betting but Allmankind at 7/1 looks good for ew multiples.

PP going 4 places in Supreme and ew double with Ballyadam is 63/1 for win and 4.76/1 for place double. The win double obviously unlikely but with an opportunity to trade if Ballyadam wins. The place part looks very solid.
 
Skysthelimit said:
This race looks like cutting up badly with very few horses wanting to take on the front 3 in the market. It looks like there may only be 5 or 6 runners (if prices on Betfair are to be believed) and ew terms on the day wouldn't stretch to 3 places.

It’s hard to see beyond the front pair in the betting but Allmankind at 7/1 looks good for ew multiples.

PP going 4 places in Supreme and ew double with Ballyadam is 63/1 for win and 4.76/1 for place double. The win double obviously unlikely but with an opportunity to trade if Ballyadam wins. The place part looks very solid.
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I personally think three places Captain Guiness or FDP is a better bet for e/w multiples than Allmankind who I see as a win or bust. He goes out hell for leather and neither Energumene or Shishkin can catch him or he goes to fast and drops of to finish down the field. Even if he does win then I think it's likely Shishkin or Energ will have fallen or ruined their own place chance in chasing him down and again either of the other two I mentioned are a good bet in that scenario.
 
Skysthelimit said:
This race looks like cutting up badly with very few horses wanting to take on the front 3 in the market. It looks like there may only be 5 or 6 runners (if prices on Betfair are to be believed) and ew terms on the day wouldn't stretch to 3 places.

It’s hard to see beyond the front pair in the betting but Allmankind at 7/1 looks good for ew multiples.

PP going 4 places in Supreme and ew double with Ballyadam is 63/1 for win and 4.76/1 for place double. The win double obviously unlikely but with an opportunity to trade if Ballyadam wins. The place part looks very solid.
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This shouldn't really surprise too many, in 4 of the last 10 runnings the place payout only went down to the first two, it's what the presence of the March chase has created, that and the strategy of sending novices to handicaps....
 
Istabraq said:
This shouldn't really surprise too many, in 4 of the last 10 runnings the place payout only went down to the first two, it's what the presence of the March chase has created, that and the strategy of sending novices to handicaps....
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Yes and this combined with owners not being there will result in fewer fun runners making up the numbers.

It looks like we will see some smaller fields in a number of races this year.

I don’t think WH will be offering 7 places on the Supreme when that looks like it may only have 10-12 runners. The Ballymore is another race that is likely to have a smaller field. The novice hurdle races are also being impacted by the handicaps like the chases.
 
For those that like value irrespective of odds, Sky RAB have Energumene at 4/9 for a top 3 finish.
 
Energueme drifted to 4s on the machine.. lack of rain perhaps or something more? could the lack of rain force him to the marsh?
 
DeeBee said:
Energueme drifted to 4s on the machine.. lack of rain perhaps or something more? could the lack of rain force him to the marsh?
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4's is only 3/1, and he's 9/4 with bookmakers, so nothing drastic really, though I do suspect it is probably ground related yeah :encouragement:
 
ComplyOrDie said:
4's is only 3/1, and he's 9/4 with bookmakers, so nothing drastic really, though I do suspect it is probably ground related yeah :encouragement:
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No nothing too drastic but has been a steady 3.5 the past week or so and come in on the marsh (but still 14).. one to keep an eye on
 
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Could be a price push. These can be responsible for a few palpitations this time of year.
A Plus Tard pushed to 8s with Fred today which has led to the exchange drift this morning for example
 
darlojim said:
likely to run in grand annual he said on his stable tour this week.
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Ok thanks JIm. In a weak year could see why they might be tempted to go for this. But would be a waste of a nice mark!
 
What do we reckon 5/6runners?

Shishkin
Energumene
Cap G
Franco
Allmankind
Felix Desjy ??
 
Heard rumours he’s scoped dirty. Don’t want to throw my 20s vouchers away but can cash for a good return. Fuck
 
Yep was 9.8 to lay when I posted; so I had a look if it was being backed for the Marsh instead but was 90 to lay on there. Looking ominous.......
 
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