• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

2017 National Hunt Chase

Kevloaf said:
Little thought whilst looking at the RSA ... current FAV for the race, A Genie In Abottle is trained by Noel Meade... but Disko and Alpha Des Obeaux are trained by Mouse Morris.... despite the owners being happy enough to run them against each other, would it not make more sense to let Mouse have two runners in two different races?

Katie Walsh has ridden Genie before ... If Nina wasn't sidelined I'd be more confident, because she rode Disko in his first two starts... but 12/1 NRNB on Disko I tihnk is okay! I wouldn't back 16s without the concession, but I think if declared it'd be half the price. VERY likely to have Katie Walsh on board I'd say? Two gigginstown runners in the RSA, just the one in this?

Disko has been very highly regarded but I would say has ever so slightly disappointed, and does look a little bit held in the RSA ... I can see Genie and ADO running RSA, leaving Disko as the fancy in this race.... I know 12/.1 isn't a huge price... but I'd think the SP would be half that.
Click to expand...

I'd be surprised if A Genie In A Bottle ran in the RSA as he looks as though he needs every yard of 4 miles.
 
In his last run, behind (3/4 l) Anibale Fly, they pulled 30L clear of Balko De Flos, Martello Tower, Haymount... horses quoted in the 4 miler that aren't perhaps deemed good enough for the RSA?

Sometimes what a horse is best suited to isn't where it runs. Don Poli being a recent similar example?

33/1 NRNB, I am going to back it :devilish:
 
Last edited:
Champers on Ice, might turn up in the Ultima but looks a 4 miler to me. Paul Kealy put him up in the Weekender this week, can see him doing an 'Un temps pour tout'. ..same connections!
 
Codd will apparently be on A Genie In A Bottle. A huge positive.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...l-meade-looking-at-jlt-novice-chase-for-disko

Discussing some of his other Festival plans, the trainer continued: "A Genie In Abottle runs in the four-mile race (National Hunt Chase) and Jamie Codd has agreed to ride him.

"He was beaten by Tony Martin's horse (Anibale Fly) in Naas the last day, but he's a Grade One performer and there was no disgrace in that.

"He stays very well and his jumping has been very good up to this point.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Codd will apparently be on A Genie In A Bottle. A huge positive.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...l-meade-looking-at-jlt-novice-chase-for-disko

Discussing some of his other Festival plans, the trainer continued: "A Genie In Abottle runs in the four-mile race (National Hunt Chase) and Jamie Codd has agreed to ride him.

"He was beaten by Tony Martin's horse (Anibale Fly) in Naas the last day, but he's a Grade One performer and there was no disgrace in that.

"He stays very well and his jumping has been very good up to this point.
Click to expand...

The prices still available make him a back to lay if Codd sticks with the ride and doesn't do a switcheroo.

You'd have to think he goes off no higher than 4s
 
cpfcpatriot said:
The prices still available make him a back to lay if Codd sticks with the ride and doesn't do a switcheroo.

You'd have to think he goes off no higher than 4s
Click to expand...

He's shortened into 8's and 9's this morning. Jamie Codd has ridden for Elliott the last couple of years in this but i can't see what he will be running this time. He has ridden for Pipe in amateur races before now but I don't think Champers in Ice is as good as this fellah. This is a good honest horse, stays, jumps well and will go on most ground; he seems an ideal type for this race. I would take any price down to 7/1 and then would wait until the day
 
Pilot booking a huge plus but, and this is a strong trends race, 6 year olds don't usually win this, twice in last 26 years including Minella Rocco last year (who was having his fifth chase start in the race).
If he was French bred where he would have been jumping hurdles at 2 and fences at 3 I would have more interest, but an Irish bred and presumably through the PTP field where he won't have jumped anything until he was 4.
No doubting the ability but I'm a bigger fan of 7 and 8 year olds in this, or is this race due a trends shift ?
 
Would depend on how many had tried ista for me to not back this horse knowing Codd would be on board? He can't win it every year (and doesn't) but as we've all aknowledged, the jockey matters in this.

May pay to look elsewhere now though?
 
Bit like the lack of 4yo horses that try the Supreme, there has to be a reason ?
In the case of the 4yos I think it's a stamina issue and lack of speed for the easier and speedier Old Course, the Nat Hunt Chase is all about stamina and experience so for me it's a case of most trainers knowing their 6yos don't have enough of either.
Just my view though...
 
Age is a strange one and I'm not sure if there isn't a definitive answer here. Let's take A Genie In A Bottle versus other forum favourite Champers On Ice:

Genie - Age 6 - 8 rules races and 1 PTP - 4 Novice chase starts.
COI - Age 7 - 9 rules races and 2 PTP - 3 Novice chase starts.

Looking at the above I'm not sure the age stat would sway me in favour of the older horse. Both have run twice over fences over 3m and on running style and breeding you would not think the ability to stay would be an issue for either.
 
The main reason (for lack of 4YO in Supreme) is surely that they have 2 specific 4YO races.... so plenty of reasons not to as in the Champion and Stayers hurdle we'll see a lot less mares because of the Mares race... it WOULD make me sit up and take note though when it did happen?

Slightly different with this race though so I am not sure it is a direct comparison... seems to be more a Scottish National trial at the moment and a national horse would be 7/8/9 ? Which would add up...

I suppose with last year being a 6YO winner, if Genie did do it, you'd have to take note that the trend might be changing as you considered. Plus if last years 4 miler produces a Gold Cup winner it'll be targetted differently in the future?
 
I'm convinced the 4 miler can become as much a novice Gold Cup trial as the RSA, for a start the RSA can see a handful of runners whereas this race will always be a sellout.

I don't have the answers as to how some trends are derived but they are and there must be a reason certain profiles succeed time after time.

Age is an easy one for me, it's a bit like an 18 year old fighting a 30 year old for the heavyweight crown, as talented as the younger man might be you have to love the experience of the older man and the fact the young un may still be developing physically.

If you ever go racing be sure to go to the parade ring/pre parade ring for the novice races and see the difference between the physicality of them and the 3m chasers (ignore the headgear, that just proves they're loons !).
There a world of difference in appearance, and whilst the difference between 6 and 7 is less striking than 4 to 5 or 5 to 6, A Genie in a Bottle isn't just a young horse he was foaled on 26 May so will still be 10 weeks short of his 6th birthday come raceday.
I'm not saying he can't win, but he will need to be something special to win such a brutal race at his age....

BOF - as an owner of a good quality racehorse would you have ever considered having your horse in a race like this before his 6th birthday ?
 
Last edited:
As a backer of A Genie In a Bottle, I was interested in your comments Istabraq. I like trends, but I do think they need to be treated with caution as races evolve.

There were only three 6 year olds in the race last year. They finished 1st, 2nd and 4th.

There was only two runners in 2015, two in 2014 and one in 2013. They didn't perform great, but not awful.

Four Commanders was the only 6 year old in 2012 and was third. Chicago Grey the only one in 2011 and mid div.

I don't think there is enough evidence to really consider it a great negative myself.
 
Istabraq said:
BOF - as an owner of a good quality racehorse would you have ever considered having your horse in a race like this before his 6th birthday ?
Click to expand...

Absolutely not! And you are making me rethink my selection in this race - the points you make are entirely valid. I was very impressed by A Genie In Abottle in the paddock at Naas = he is a big imposing horse but, like you say, not even 6. I think 7 is the perfect age and then the Gold Cup at 8.

If I may..a quick update on BOF: His sacrum went into lock down last week and there is no telling when he first injured it. It certainly would account for his display at Naas and, in a perfect world, I would like to think he tweaked it in running at Doncaster. Box/paddock rest for 10-14 days and we'll take it from there. We are reaching deep into the bag of excuses but there's still a few more in there!
 
CCM - absolutely, trends do change and it must be remembered that the conditions of this race changed a year or two back so certainly worth keeping an eye on how results develop, however, this is still a brutal 4m race regardless of grade and absence of penalties.

Those 6yo 2016 horses were a special group, the winner has hit the deck twice but I still believe is a live Gold Cup horse and is likely to go very close in a National at some point in his career and the second has won a Welsh National and Hennessy and in any other year would be a very short ante post Gold Cup fav.
Of the older horses the 6th has won a becher chase with half the National field and an Irish National winner all behind.

Trends are always an emotive subject and whilst I use them I am not blinkered to their changing, but I would like to see another couple of 6yo winners before I consider backing one, and even then a Jan/Feb foal not a late May one.

As I said, just my thinking...
 
It's good thinking mate. Certainly made me think anyway :encouragement:
 
https://sites.google.com/site/gault...ional-hunt-steeple-chase-challenge-cup-abt-4m

Im with you ista. I have one for this thats been the trainer/owners plan all season yet hasn't been mentioned on this thread. It fits all the big trends that are very important to me. However i did go against trends last year and backed 6yo Minella Rocco because i was so taken with his penultimate run. He's had his two prep runs, and i'm very hopeful of a big run.
 
Last edited:
I've not done much work on this race Doc so need you to spread the word....
 
Istabraq said:
Trends are always an emotive subject and whilst I use them I am not blinkered to their changing, but I would like to see another couple of 6yo winners before I consider backing one, and even then a Jan/Feb foal not a late May one.

As I said, just my thinking...
Click to expand...

A bit like trainer form.... as soon as there is enough data to make a solid case, the run is at an end and a new cycle has already begun:highly_amused:

I re-invested my Genie NRNB stake for the RSA so it is pocket talk from a lazy bet on my behalf haha.

Are we any more likely to know where O'Connor, Katie or * will be? Any horses that do fit the trends.

I love the https://sites.google.com/site/gault...ional-hunt-steeple-chase-challenge-cup-abt-4m website. A brilliant read whether you follow trends or not (or are anywhere in between)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom