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2017 National Hunt Chase

Last 11 renewals

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 2-3-31

7yo: 5-10-76

8yo: 3-7-55

9yo: 1-2-26

10yo: 0-1-8

11yo+: 0-0-3
 
doctorwu said:
https://sites.google.com/site/gault...ional-hunt-steeple-chase-challenge-cup-abt-4m

Im with you ista. I have one for this thats been the trainer/owners plan all season yet hasn't been mentioned on this thread. It fits all the big trends that are very important to me. However i did go against trends last year and backed 6yo Minella Rocco because i was so taken with his penultimate run. He's had his two prep runs, and i'm very hopeful of a big run.
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Fletchers Flyer?
 
All of these stats and trends are just strengthening my belief that this is the best race for AMERICAN. They need to forget the RSA idea and go here.
 
mayo said:
Last 11 renewals

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 2-3-31

7yo: 5-10-76

8yo: 3-7-55

9yo: 1-2-26

10yo: 0-1-8

11yo+: 0-0-3
Click to expand...

Without doing the maths because I should have gone to bed already... those %'s aren't too far off between W&P and Runners for 6,7,8 ?
 
Kevloaf said:
Without doing the maths because I should have gone to bed already... those %'s aren't too far off between W&P and Runners for 6,7,8 ?
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6yo - 31 runners - 6.5% win, 9.7% placed
7yo - 76 runners - 6.6% win, 13.2% placed
8yo - 55 runners - 5.5% win, 12.7% placed
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I doubt he'd hit many stats to be honest but I know this has been the target all season.
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Fletchers Indeed. Im told O'Connor will be in the saddle. we shall see. He needs spring ground, which hopefully he'll get. He put up a fantastic performance at the Punchestown festival winning over just short of 4m. I had him down for this ever since that race. My only nagging doubt is that you need to be a future Gold Cup horse to win this these days. Question marks remain whether he has enough quality. Haymount is the only other one at the moment of interest.
 
couple of big stats
18 from last 19 1st,2nd, in a chase at 3m+
28 from last 31 1st,2nd, in the past 2 runs
 
Massive trends race this.

Doc, I'll take your word that his Punch win means he still qualifies for this and assuming that's the case you could well be onto something here.
Mixed it with some top hurdlers and has some good chase form, not a million miles behind Blaklion and that's a classy yardstick.
Interested....
 
Fry put him up in his 5 to follow in Oct...

FLETCHERS FLYER

"He won at the Punchestown Festival for the second time on his final run. He relished the step up to three and a half miles. The beauty of the Punchestown win is that the timing means he remains a novice all season.

"His campaign will be geared around two races, the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and the Irish National. They will be his focus and we will work backwards from them.

"He will need at least a couple of runs to make sure he is spot on for both those staying races, as he just takes a bit of work to get him up to speed.

"It gives us plenty of time to have him at the top of his game when he does run. He looks well and is in great order."

My only worry was that he needs 'at least a couple of runs' and hasn't been sighted since Ascot?
 
Istabraq said:
Massive trends race this.

Doc, I'll take your word that his Punch win means he still qualifies for this and assuming that's the case you could well be onto something here.
Mixed it with some top hurdlers and has some good chase form, not a million miles behind Blaklion and that's a classy yardstick.
Interested....
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Ista,
Thats my take on it as well. Ive had some 25s & 20s (nrnb 365)
Ive been quietly confident about this running a big race, but sometimes you question your own judgement at times. Saturnas has been a blow to my confidence, especially with Brelade running his race in the deloitte, the form line should have put Saturnas in the winners enclosure. somethings up.......
 
I really like Beware the Bear in this, it's one of my main fancies for the whole festival. Was going to back it on the day only as price may not alter too much, but gone in this morning at 14s each way.
The defeat of Singlefarmpayment at Ascot was very impressive, he didn't jump as fluently as SFP but picked it up with a degree of ease and SFP is a live contender for either RSA or Ultima Chase.
Won comfortably next time out, the margin looks closer than the reality as it was idling in front. Think it will handle the trip ok and surprised it's not second in the betting behind Agenie in a bottle.
 
Cashew King said:
FLETCHERS FLYER

My only worry was that he needs 'at least a couple of runs' and hasn't been sighted since Ascot?
Click to expand...

Entered for two races at Ascot this weekend over 2m 7f (Reynoldstown Novice Chase and Keltbray Swinley Handicap Chase)

Does that make you more confident??? :encouragement:

I'm tempted @ 20's...
 
Leman14 said:
Entered for two races at Ascot this weekend over 2m 7f (Reynoldstown Novice Chase and Keltbray Swinley Handicap Chase)

Does that make you more confident??? :encouragement:

I'm tempted @ 20's...
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That'll do for me !
 
my my, fletchers all the rage now:highly_amused:
happy to see him entered up this weekend. good to have positives, and negatives to ponder.
 
Harry a Fry says Fletchers Flyer main target Irish National and could bypass Cheltenham depending on how he goes this weekend
 
thats a negative. I did ask for it.:sorrow:
This Cheltenham looks doomed for me.
 
Remember before getting carried away on this, jockey booking is so important.
 
Mytentoryours1 said:
Remember before getting carried away on this, jockey booking is so important.
Click to expand...

Couldn't agree more, probably only 6, maybe 7 pilots who can win this race....
 
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